Blues aiming for a third away league win.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
This week feels a big opportunity for Birmingham City to reignite any momentum in their 2025/26 campaign, and a point in South Wales at Swansea City is not the end of the world – especially given how thin the squad is currently.
The real test comes on Tuesday night, where Blues will have no excuse but to leave Hillsborough with victory.
No team across the country has experienced a tougher campaign than Sheffield Wednesday. The Owls have been decimated through financial issues, injury problems and even the very future of the club still remains uncertain.
Whilst there is a degree of sympathy in mind for a club whose current living nightmare dangerously teetered on becoming reality in B9 just a few years ago, Chris Davies must feel there will be few – if any – better chances to turn Blues’ away fortunes.
The manner of Blues’ FA Cup victory was barely defiant amidst growing skepticism over Davies’ ability to right the ship, and elements of the performance against Swansea were all too insipidly familiar.
So how may the teams shape up in Blues quest for a first away league win since their Deepdale triumph?
Owls boss Henrik Pedersen has been dealt a tricked hand than most this season and his woes continue with talented goalkeeper Pierce Charles facing a two month spell on the sidelines, so new signing Murphy Cooper joins as number one.
The squad is plagued by availability issues and just a handful of senior pros remain in contention for Tuesday’s clash. Midfielder Barry Bannan is the only player in the side to have started every league game this term.
For Blues, Jay Stansfield should be fit to start in the Steel City whilst there could be minutes for new signing Jhon Solis. Bright Osayi-Samuel suffered an injury during Nigeria’s third-place play-off in the Africa Cup of Nations so may miss out once more.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Sheffield Wednesday have the worst defensive record in the second tier, conceding 52 goals across their 26 matches this season.
Opposition’s half:
Wednesday will head into Tuesday’s clash knowing that they’ll have to conserve their energy in moments, given they have three fixtures in an eight day spell with an extremely depleted core.
They’ve not been a mad pressing team by any means this season, and have looked to almost ‘half press’ – applying pressure to the ball player without really having the intention of making a tackle and instead looking to force a turnover through a loose pass or interception.
In higher phases they line up with a 5-3-2 shape with the midfielders fairly narrow behind the attackers. When the ball does go wide it’s either Svante Ingelsson, the left-sided central midfielder, who is tasked with closing the right-back or whoever features as the right wing-back closes the left-back.
They haven’t been full throttle without the ball for good reason, trying to reserve energy for their own advances and largely defending better in a block.
Pedersen has made a number of changes throughout the campaign so with the fresh concerns over Dominic Iorfa’s fitness – who has had a big role in covering the space vacated by Liam Palmer at right wing-back – he could make adjustments.
But there is a vulnerability about the Owls when it comes to more direct balls in behind, without major athleticism throughout the squad and perhaps Stansfield, Kyogo Furuhashi and Lewis Koumas could attack the big spaces of grass left.
Own half:
In their own half, Wednesday are much more settled in a shape rather than having Palmer and Ingelsson breaking out of the mould.
They adopt the popular 4-4-2 block that many teams in the league utilise and seek to limit the spaces between the lines and make sure the distances between players aren’t too big.
At times it can look more like a 5-4-1 shape when Palmer drops in to form the conventional back five whilst forward Bailey Cadamarteri can drop in to add another body into the midfield line.
Concentration could be a key factor in this one. This will be the second game for both sides in quick succession and for Wednesday, this group of players have barely had a rest over the last few months.
They have to be so disciplined off the ball and against a team like Blues could feasibly spend a large part of the game without the ball so those lapses in concentration may occur and the visitors need to be ready to capitalise.
They’ve got a poor defensive record for a reason and in goal the loss of Charles is a blow – even though his own shot stopping numbers were hardly glowing. Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath is prone to making tough work of the shots he faces and with the firepower amongst the Blues ranks, Cooper will also be tested.
Set pieces have also been a huge area of vulnerability, conceding 0.6 goals per match from dead ball scenarios.
In possession work:
Wednesday have managed to keep the ball fairly well at Hillsborough, averaging the 14th most possession in the league.
Build up:
The Owls have, to my eye, managed to make good use of the limited resources they have available in games at Hillsborough and have been competitive lately – keeping two draws in their last three home league games.
In some ways they are still partly a one-man band with Bannan doing a lot of the heavy lifting. They build out with a back three and the Scotsman likes to come deep to collect the ball.
Bannan did have the help of loanee Harry Amass who proved a handy aid but his loan has currently ended. They managed to retain possession well down the left flank and with the energy of Ingelsson – as I’ll come on to – they can cause issues down that side.
Youngster Jarvis Thornton has established himself as Bannan’s partner in midfield and he also likes to make plenty of short movements towards the defenders in possession. By dropping deep and dragging his marker with him, he opens up a huge channel of space for a pass into either Jamal Lowe or Cadamarteri down the right midfield channel.
Ingelsson drifts forward often onto the last line which frees Jamal Lowe up to pull away from defenders and pick up spaces centrally. That could be a way for the Owls to beat Blues’ press.
Chance creation:
For a side that have generated the second lowest expected goals tally and scored the fewest goals, it’s hard to make a case for them as a highly dangerous forward threat but there are elements to like about Wednesday.
Lacking in quality, they have had to utilise their physical attributes where possible. Charles is a huge loss in goal, arguably more so for his passing range as his long clipped balls were able to get Wednesday in behind their opponents quickly.
Ingelsson is their biggest danger, starting in midfield and then bursting through the thirds whilst opponents are static. Wednesday often slow the game down and then look to spring a quick move on the opposition.
When they have got into good areas, it’s often been their finishing or final ball that has let them down – underperforming their expected goals by more than anyone else aside from Derby.
Down the right-hand side, Palmer has often stayed higher in possession and both Cadamarteri and Charlie McNeill have been targets for the more direct balls into the right channel.
Combinations between Amass and Bannan have been their biggest avenue, both the most technically astute members of the squad and the most creative carriers and creators so without Amass they may struggle to create.
Statistical quirk:
Sheffield Wednesday have put in the fewest crosses per match in the division but have been fairly successful when doing so, boasting the sixth best completion rate.
Key players:
- Liam Palmer – bringing experience to a youthful backline, Palmer is the constant in the side lately and will be leaned upon by others.
- Barry Bannan – the heartbeat of Wednesday, Bannan is always a key part of any success the Owls enjoy.
- Svante Ingelsson – a crucial role in supporting the side in all phases, the Swede carries plenty of tactical responsibility.
This is a huge opportunity for Blues to turn a corner away from home. Following the draw against Swansea, a win feels paramount though it won’t be easy.
There will be no better chance for Davies to record another away victory and doing so could put Blues back into the play-off mix with January reinforcements hopefully on the way.
The Owls showed plenty of spirit and came agonisingly close to a win at St. Andrew’s back in September. Blues need to make sure they can secure three points on away soil this time around.
My prediction: Sheffield Wednesday 0, Birmingham City 1.
