Can Blues build on back-to-back away results?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
If any neutral football watcher had scrolled through the response to Birmingham City’s 1-1 draw with Stoke City last Saturday, they’d probably have expected to see Blues sat rock bottom of the Championship table.
Hyperbolic online responses, like the one to a well-fought draw where Chris Davies’ side had a number of high calibre chances to take all three points, are becoming increasingly commonplace this season – despite Blues having a more than stomachable mathematical position in the league table.
There’s no doubt the ambitions sooner or later will be to properly make a run at the play-off spots – whether that’s a prospect for this season or next – and the addition of a number of quality operators in the transfer window will boost the chances of doing so before May. But it’s far from the crisis depicted.
So heading to the Kassam stadium to face an Oxford United side who have picked up just 15 points on home soil, which new signings may get the nod?
Oxford’s own wheeling and dealing has helped them pick up five points across their last three league games, particularly in the form of forward Myles Peart-Harris.
Tough tackler Jamie McDonnell (pictured above) is a shrewd addition whilst youngster Yunus Konak and Korean Jeon Jin-Woo are more unknown quantities at this stage. The crux of the XI has been settled since Matt Bloomfield took charge.
Blues’ capture of Spaniard Carlos Vicente caught the eye on Tuesday evening and he could feasibly make his debut against the U’s. Jhon Solis could partner Paik Seung-ho in midfield whilst August Priske and Ibrahim Osman may also feature.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
New coaching pair Bloomfield and Mike Dodds have recorded two clean sheets in their first three Championship matches in charge.
Opposition’s half:
Oxford hardly had a defensive blueprint that needed ripping up when Bloomfield and Dodds arrived, but they’ve put their own stamp on the team’s approach.
Blues fans know all too well how well-drilled Gary Rowett’s sides can be and the foundations were certainly in place for the new management to build on.
Oxford have flexed between a 4-1-4-1 shape and a 3-4-3 variation so far but I’ve opted to analyse the former as they’ve deployed it in both home matches. It does at times act like a 3-4-3 so there is a potential they switch within the game too.
In high phases, Oxford are simply looking to funnel their opposition’s play into areas that suit them. They’ve sought to stem central progression, with Cameron Brannagan acting as a second striker alongside Will Lankshear to form the popular 4-4-2 block.
Their midfield line has been extremely narrow, almost encouraging their opposition to feed the ball into the full-back areas rather than into the pivot players whose influence they want to limit. This will vary opponent to opponent with the U’s more likely to try and force Blues down their right towards the likes of Phil Neumann and Tomoki Iwata.
They also use this narrow shape to try and increase their chances of picking up loose and second balls, by limiting the spaces between players and therefore allowing them to spring out of their initial shape quickly.
They’re a tactile group with the likes of Brannagan, Will Vaulks, McDonnell and others all favouring to get hands on with their opposite numbers and apply pressure.
Playing quickly into the forward players will be key if Blues are to disrupt the home side.
Own half:
In deeper areas, Oxford have again sought to be quite narrow with the opposite side full-back protecting the centre-backs by tucking in.
This does open up the possibility for teams to move the ball from side to side quickly and cause them issues by picking out their wingers in space and allowing them to run at both Sam Long and Jack Currie.
Blues could benefit from Osman’s speed and power on the left flank, particularly if Long tucks in regularly which he has done. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brodie Spencer starts at right-back to try and limit his influence, whilst Vicente could also be deployed off the left.
If Blues try to play too long, too quickly then it’ll suit the hosts. The likes of Ciaron Brown, Michal Helik and Ben Davies will eat up long balls and duels up against the likes of Jay Stansfield and Marvin Ducksch and so smarter ways of progressing the ball will be key.
Patrick Roberts and Ducksch could find joy in pockets between the midfield and defensive lines. The midfielders do like to get hands on and can be overzealous in closing down, whilst the centre-backs don’t want to get dragged out of position so there will be space to attack.
With the threats of Osman and Stansfield pinning the defence back, it could open up channels for Ducksch and Roberts to really threaten.
In possession work:
Oxford have averaged the lowest possession share in the division (42.5%).
Build up:
Oxford haven’t had plenty of the ball this season and the new management have hardly sought to make them a ball playing side.
They have managed to be more competitive in terms of possession in their home matches, averaging 52% against QPR and 47% against Bristol City, but even in those games they’ve been constantly looking to efficiently get forward.
The passing flow between the two centre-backs was their largest against the R’s and it’s clear to see why. They want to play long as soon as possible, particularly into wide areas where Peart-Harris and Stan Mills can isolate their markers.
They like to build out with a back three shape with one of the full-backs tucking in more or one of the midfielders dropping into the backline and allowing both full-backs to push on and provide width.
Vaulks and Brian De Keersmaecker have tended to be the ones dropping in, whilst Brannagan drops into the defensive midfield position to cover. This at times creates a 3-4-2-1 shape, which they utilised away at Leicester.
If Blues can turn over possession either through the press or by winning an aerial duel and then breaking, they can hurt Oxford whilst they’ve committed the full-backs high.
Chance creation:
As mentioned the more direct methods of attack have been utilised frequently in the last few games. Mills and Peart-Harris have been targeted with those sweeping balls – both having the stature to win the aerial battle against Blues’ full-backs.
Lanshear and Mark Harris are both industrious combative forwards so playing long balls into their paths is also a good outlet.
When they do look to be more acute with their passing then De Keersmaecker has been an interesting option. He likes to peel into the right flank pockets between the centre-back and left-back and his run will need to be tracked.
Their quality of delivery has been poor too often in wide areas and that’s led to them taking many shots from outside of the area when those deliveries are dealt with.
Peart-Harris and Mills do tend to throw in occasional curved runs centrally which could cause some problems.
Statistical quirk:
Since Bloomfield took charge three games ago, Oxford have doubled their season clean sheet tally – only registering two in their previous 25 league matches.
Key players:
- Ciaron Brown – a real rock in the backline, Brown has been a staple in the U’s defence.
- Brian De Keersmaecker – the Belgian possesses the creative quality to cause any team issues.
- Stan Mills – a growing source of danger, Mills will be an aerial target throughout the game.
This is a favourable fixture on paper when you consider Blues’ away woes. Following on from a trip to Hillsborough, there aren’t many better chances to make it back-to-back away wins.
The new additions could provide the necessary qualities to really upset the U’s, particularly with Solis’ ability to sniff out loose balls and Osman’s directness out wide.
There’s room for optimism lately, and with a bolstered forward line I’m hopeful Blues can turn their chances into goals at the Kassam.
My prediction: Oxford United 1, Birmingham City 2.
