Blues go fox hunting in their own backyard.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
As Leicester City approach the 10 year anniversary of their gargantuan Premier League triumph, the Foxes will no doubt be reflecting on a disastrous four year stint that has left them staring down the barrel of a possible second successive relegation.
Even the highs of their dazzling Championship title victory in 2024 has become marred by the financial tomfoolery that may yet land them in further hot water as a potential points deduction looms.
The hierarchy at the King Power decided to call an end to the Marti Cifuentes experiment following their 2-1 defeat at home to Oxford, yet interim boss Andy King (pictured) has an uphill task if he’s to right the ship whilst the search for a permanent successor continues.
That said, if King’s side are to begin to improve their fortunes, then there are few better opponents than Birmingham City in the Foxes’ recent history. Leicester are unbeaten in their last 10 against the Blues and are hoping to repeat the trick once more.
*I must preface this by acknowledging that the footage of Leicester I watch was under Cifuentes, as they were reduced to 10 men almost instantly in King’s first game in charge – that said the shape was pretty similar.
So what may they line up like come Saturday afternoon?
There will be no happy homecoming for Blues academy graduate Jordan James, after a hamstring injury ruled the Leicester starlet out for at least a month.
The squad is littered with plenty of familiar faces from their recent Premier League stints. Abdul Fatawu, Jordan Ayew and Bobby Reid are amongst the regular starters whilst goalkeeper Jakub Stolarczyk will be aiming to replicate his heroics from the FA Cup meeting between these sides in 2024.
New recruit Jhon Solis seems a shoo-in to make his maiden start in royal blue after impressing at the Kassam stadium last weekend. The game may come too soon for former Fox Demarai Gray.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Only West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield Wednesday have conceded more Championship goals this season than Leicester (45).
Opposition’s half:
It’s hard to predict the exact off the ball approach for the visitors, given King’s first game as boss was handicapped by Caleb Okoli’s early red card but there were similarities in the shape they deployed from the off.
Leicester have been adopting a 4-1-4-1 shape out of possession lately, with the more advanced of the pivot players (James and now Louis Page) pushing further up to make that four behind the striker.
They’ve not been particularly successful all season at forcing their opposition’s hand when pressing but this front five does give them good numbers to apply some pressure.
In some ways it’s similar to how Stoke City deployed their attacking quintet at St Andrew’s and given the success the Potters had in suffocating Blues in the first half it’s plausible that Leicester could imitate their approach.
One of the issues with this approach is it relies on the pressing players to be clever in how they cut off passing lanes behind them, given they’re often leaving midfielders free in space to receive.
Leicester have consistently been poor at doing so and therefore the first defensive phase has fallen down frequently. They’ll need to be much cuter with their angling of runs and their positioning if they’re to limit Paik Seung-ho and Solis (or Tommy Doyle) receiving possession.
At times the triggers for when to jump their men have felt disjointed and reactive rather than the methodical, proactive approach you’d expect a well-drilled side to implement. They’ve become far too easy to carve open and this has hindered the subsequent deeper defensive phases.
Own half:
When the ball is thrust through the Leicester midfield, it leaves the single pivot player with a chasm of space to cover and usually they’ll have two number eights to keep an eye on.
The numbers they gain from their aggressive plan in their first defensive phase can quickly become lost shirts when the play bypasses them and therefore the midfield anchor (Oliver Skipp, Harry Winks or Hamza Choudhury) relies on assistance.
One way of supporting them has been for the right-back to step into midfield. Both Choudhury and Ricardo Pereira who have been utilised at right-back have experience playing in midfield so have been capable fits at doing this.
It does however leave them exposed to a switch out towards the vacated space, where Ibrahim Osman will likely be waiting in the wings (no pun intended) for Blues.
Another solution has been for one of the centre-backs to step out – usually Jannik Vestergaard – but this equally has its flaws, with the Dane lacking the mobility to recover quickly and opening up space for a long ball in behind.
It’s not uncommon to see the opposition’s roaming midfielders pick up pockets of space in dangerous areas in and around the box as the wide players get outnumbered and the pivot player can’t get across quickly enough.
When they regularly have few numbers back – and that’s not to say the forward players don’t work hard to get back into shape – it’s no wonder that they’ve allowed the fourth most shots on target, the fourth best xG against per shot, and the second highest percentage of shots against inside the box.
Stolarczyk has performed acceptably for the majority of the season, but the Pole can’t perform miracles on a regular basis and the new tools Chris Davies has at his disposal could allow Blues to unlock the Foxes at will.
In possession work:
Only six sides have created fewer big chances than Leicester (47).
Build up:
Leicester have averaged the eighth most possession in the division, but their build up has looked limited so often and it’s certainly an area Blues can look to disrupt.
When they build out it’s predominately with a 4-1 or a 3-2 shape, with the right-back usually flexing between the defence and midfield lines.
The centre-backs are competent ball players but the spacing between the players can be limiting. When they use the 4-1 shape the full-backs take up wide positions whilst the pivot is usually man marked, and therefore the centre-backs have to create themselves.
They either need to drive through the lines and risk losing the ball and being caught out of position, or they look for those midfield splitting passes into the number eights (Reid, Page or Joe Aribo), but they can often be fairly high upfield.
When they look to move the ball down the channels they can have more success, with Reid pulling wide to the left and allowing Stephy Mavididi to drift inside whilst Page can do the same on the opposite side to enable the right-back to invert.
They do look longer towards Ayew when their options of progressing the ball are limited, which can be a useful tool with his physicality.
Chance creation:
The Foxes have found it really difficult to consistently carve out openings this season and with James’ absence that’s likely to become an even trickier task.
Leicester have created the eighth least xG in the division and yet they’ve scored the 11th most goals. That’s partly down to the quality they’ve got in the squad. Although it may not be showing at the moment, they do have an array of options who have previously excelled at this level.
James, Fatawu and Reid are all amongst the division’s biggest xG over performers. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – both Zan Vipotnik and Jack Clarke, the highest two goalscorers, have also significantly overshot their xG.
But it does show that even the chances they’ve managed to convert have generally been lower quality and when you take out a finisher of the level of James, it becomes a lot less likely they can replicate that level of scoring.
James was also a huge chance creator, generating the league’s third most, and removing him from the side not only takes his chances away but also hampers the supply line to Fatawu.
When they can get players in close proximity they can interchange nicely, with a number of inventive and quick-thinking forwards. That four behind Ayew can dovetail well in inside spaces and both Fatawu and Mavididi are big individual dangers running at players.
There’s always the possibility that Reid, Ayew, Fatawu and Mavididi can hurt Blues. They’re top players at this level in their own right and if the pieces fall into place they can punish teams.
However a more regimented defensive approach from Davies’ team, particularly with Solis’ tenacity in midfield, could stop the away side getting into areas where they can utilise their strengths.
Statistical quirk:
Leicester have played the least accurate long balls per match in the league, 1.7 fewer than the next side.
Key players:
- Jakub Stolarczyk- the Pole’s goal will come under siege in B9 and he’ll need to be in top form to deny Blues from scoring.
- Hamza Choudhury – the Bengali midfielder’s flexibility and positioning will be key whether he plays at right-back or in midfield.
- Abdul Fatawu – the Ghanaian is one of the league’s hottest prospects and can run riot against any side on his day.
After a couple of important wins on their travels, Blues need to make sure their home form doesn’t falter as they welcome both Leicester and West Bromwich Albion to St .Andrew’s this week.
The Foxes are in turmoil, and there will be tougher tests to come in the closing stages of the season but Davies’ team have to consistently put away opponents if they’re to truly make an assault on the top six.
There may be hiccups along the way on Saturday – I don’t expect it to be plain sailing against a side with their attacking talents – but with the replenished forward options at Davies’ disposal, Blues have new ways to skin the cat.
My prediction: Birmingham City 3, Leicester City 0
