Visit to the Lions’ Den for Blues.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
In a(nother) season where Blues have found away points hard to come by, successive trips to Carrow Road and the Den – within four days – is not exactly a kind schedule.
The latter has at times been the happiest of hunting grounds for Birmingham City, with Chris Hughton’s side lashing six past their hosts, but in recent times Blues have mustered up just two goals in their last five trips.
Alex Neil’s men are the epitome of the trials and tribulations the Championship has to offer. They’re hard nosed, imposing and tirelessly brutish.
So with a renewed sense of away optimism, will it be an evening of joy akin to Blues’ Bermondsey triumph back in 2023?
Neil has been in a season-long tug of war with the treatment table but with a core of players back to fitness, Millwall have a fairly settled XI.
Barry Bannan has been a tidy January recruit whilst Tommy Watson has also contributed. The form of goalkeeper Max Crocombe has denied loanee Anthony Patterson from forcing his way into the side.
Another arduous task awaits Blues in SE16 so the physicality of August Priske and Jhon Solis could prove vital. Ibrahim Osman may be able to capitalise on the space vacated by flying full-back Tristan Crama.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Millwall have kept the joint most clean sheets in the division (12).
Opposition’s half:
Millwall aren’t one of the sides that have picked up points by consistently dominating games. They’ve been a Swiss Army knife type team, happy to take the initiative in certain matches but also happy to sit back and soak up pressure.
They have found it more difficult against teams who’ve generally taken the game to them. They’ve won just three of their nine games against top half teams at the Den.
They’ve also mustered up just two goals against the six of the other top eight sides they’ve played at home, and have won none of those matches, so Blues will fancy themselves to cause issues.
Millwall have forced the most high turnovers in the league according to Opta but it’s not always that apparent in the footage.
They press in a 4-2-3-1 shape with Mihailo Ivanovic closing the centre-backs whilst the other players behind him are man-to-man. When they face a team who use a double pivot then Casper De Norre is usually given license to step further upfield to match the extra man.
When the ball is played through the first line they can become a bit complacent. Ivanovic is generally quite passive once the ball is past him and with a midfield of Bannan, De Norre and Billy Mitchell there can be gaps picked out.
Especially when De Norre has pushed on alongside Bannan, Mitchell can become overwhelmed and spaces either side of him can be capitalised on by their opponents.
Own half:
When they do sink into their own territory, Millwall can become more compact and shore up the gaps amidst their ranks.
Unusually for a ‘top’ team they’ve ranked highly for statistics such as clearances, tackles and interceptions which show just how tactile their defending is in deep areas and that teams are generally in their territory for decent chunks of games.
Down the right-hand side they’ve found it difficult to get to grips with tracking from the footage I’ve seen. When an opposition midfielder adopts that left half space behind Mitchell or De Norre they struggle to then close them.
If Crama steps out he leaves Caleb Taylor vulnerable down the flank and neither of the Millwall centre-backs are that mobile or comfortable in wide spaces.
Jay Stansfield could have real success here, with either Osman or Demarai Gray holding width to pin Crama wide, whilst Stansfield can get the ball facing up Taylor.
On the opposite side Alfie Doughty is predominantly a forward thinking full-back and he’s been caught out by wingers in recent weeks
Jake Cooper and Taylor have won the second and third most aerial duels in the league and will lap up any hopeful deliveries, so more incisive methods will be necessary.
Crocombe has proved his worth this campaign, boasting the league’s highest save percentage so it’s not been a smooth ride for Millwall defensively. They are strong defenders individually but there is room for Blues to exploit them.
In possession work:
Millwall have averaged just 46.7% possession this season, the eighth least in the league.
Build up:
Neil’s side are quite versatile when it comes to building up, but they do like to be risk averse for the most part and play to their strengths.
It’s common for them to go long from goal kicks and deep free-kicks, looking to win flick ons in their right channel via Ivanovic, Crama and Femi Azeez.
They look for Ivanovic often – who’s competed in the most aerial duels in the league – but it’s not always about winning the first contact. The likes of Mitchell and De Norre are perfect for sniffing out loose balls so Solis will have a busy evening.
When they do get the ball on the deck the touches they take are minimal – until it gets to their creative wide players. Centrally they want to move the ball with speed and purpose.
Bannan has been a really acute pick up in this sense, able to knit together the play and having the quality to pick out the far side winger accurately rather than having a more natural forward in that role which they have done prior.
Wide areas is where they really want to get the ball into and Azeez and Camhil Neghli have been strong outlets for them.
They’re given more license to create, take more touches and combine with others. The full-backs on both sides are allowed to get high and wide and those combinations between the wingers and full-backs are key to getting into dangerous areas.
Chance creation:
Those wide players are the key if Neil’s team do unlock their opponents, and that applies in multiple ways.
Azeez alone has been a real source of inspiration and when he picks up the ball he can make things happen. Whether that’s cutting inside and shooting, which he favours a lot of the time, or looking to deliver for a teammate he’s always a danger.
When they do get into crossing areas the box is always packed. The far-side winger gets inside of their man and Ivanovic has been a big aerial target for them. They also have other players getting in and around the area so you can see why they’re hard to cope with.
The right-hand side especially is an area of invention with Crama bombing past Azeez throughout the game. The quality of his end product may be sporadic but he still provides a threat.
Azeez boasts the most successful crosses per 90 in the league (as do Millwall when it comes to teams) whilst Doughty is also a valuable option on the left.
From dead-ball scenarios they pack a punch and with the height amongst the side in Taylor, Cooper and Crama particularly, they almost always carve out chances from these situations.
The game has passed Bannan by at times whilst he adjusts to the side. I’ve noticed them electing to pass to other players rather than picking him out in the space created by Ivanovic but Blues still need to be wary of his influence.
Statistical quirk:
Millwall have played the highest percentage of their passes forward in the league (43.4%).
Key players:
- Tristan Crama – a defender who has a number of strengths to his game, he’ll be a tough opponent for Blues’ left wing options.
- Billy Mitchell – Mitchell did impress at St Andrew’s in the early stages despite the result and is integral to the side.
- Femi Azeez – the winger has been a real source of goals and creativity and will be a lively test for Kai Wagner.
Millwall away is always one I wince at when the fixture approaches, despite a relatively successful record in Bermondsey – at least when you take into account how dire Blues have been for the last decade.
They’ve got the top two in their sights lately and will be keen to show they can beat top half sides on home soil, especially given Blues have been so poor on the road for a large chunk of the season.
However there’s renewed spirit in this group and the likes of Solis will relish the challenge so I’m confident Blues can get a result.
My prediction: Millwall 1, Birmingham City 1.
