Blues looking to stop the rot against the Red Dragons.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
The last couple weeks have been a horror show for Birmingham City. Three straight defeats, two of which in abysmal fashion have soured the mood in the Second City, as Chris Davies’ side slip towards mid-table mediocrity.
The same could be said for Wrexham. The Red Dragons have been markedly better than Blues, but a run of two wins in six have hindered their quest for a play-off finish.
The last two clashes between these two sides have been competitive, both ending in 1-1 draws at the Racecourse. So can Blues rediscover the St. Andrew’s magic of last season’s 3-1 conquest?
Wrexham are boosted by the return of Kieffer Moore. He played 84 minutes against Southampton on Tuesday and will likely lead the line on Sunday.
In the absence of Liberato Cacace, George Thomason has found a home at left wing-back. The midfield area is more contested with the likes of George Dobson, Zak Vyner, Ollie Rathbone and Matty James battling for a spot.
After a better showing at Ipswich Town, Davies may elect much of the XI to face Wrexham. Ethan Laird should return in place of Jonathan Panzo whilst Tomoki Iwata could also start.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Despite their lofty league position, Wrexham have conceded the fourth most goals (58).
Opposition’s half:
Arguably Wrexham’s biggest strength this season has been their ability to not lose, particularly on their travels. Only Millwall (five) have lost fewer games than Phil Parkinson’s side’s four this campaign.
They’ve been more conservative away from home, seeking to disrupt their opposition rather than finding their free-flowing attacking home style.
They’ve not been a big pressing outlet, and that largely checks out in the roles assigned to the players. The midfield pairing are much more inclined to defend space rather than latching onto a man.
The front three, although quite fluid with Lewis O’Brien tucking in, do look to close down their men but it’s less organised than an intense press. At times their opponents do find it quite easy to break through the first line too.
Where their weakness lies, in my humble opinion, is that their wing-backs are tasked with closing the opposition full-backs, whilst the two attacking midfielders stay quite narrow.
This isn’t necessarily an issue but when the full-backs have quite a deep starting position, it means the ground the wing-backs have to cover is vast and it can give the other team time to get their head up and play past them.
Blues will need quick progression to take advantage of this. Getting caught dwelling on the ball has been a big problem lately, and Laird’s inclusion should help with that.
Own half:
Not winning back possession in high areas loads in their matches, Wrexham’s opponents do make advances into their half regularly.
Out wide they’ve been much better at defending space. The attacking midfielders get back and help, giving them three or even four players down each flank, with the wing-back, wide centre-back and ball-side midfielder all in close proximity.
Vyner’s role, or whoever features on the right of the midfield pairing, has a key role as Issa Kabore can be more vulnerable to switching off or being caught out of position. Vyner’s defensive nous helps cover for him.
They do manage to regain possession fairly frequently down the flanks, but when they do allow crosses to come in they get plenty of numbers in the box to defend.
It’s not unusual to see seven or eight players inside their own box. That can lead to a congested penalty area or can open them up to strikes from outside the area.
They have won the highest percentage of aerial duels in the division (54.6%) so going toe-to-toe from crossing situations might not bear much fruit. Looking to overwhelm their midfield in central areas could prove more effective.
In possession work:
Wrexham have had the ninth lowest average possession this season (47.9%).
Build up:
Wrexham are one of the more direct sides in the division, playing the second most accurate long balls per match in the division (25.3).
They can mix it up, but they’re generally looking to minimise their time knocking it around in their own half. It’s no shock that they’re direct, why wouldn’t you be when they’re so combative aerially? The return of Moore only helps that.
They operate quite a wide set-up with the wing-backs high and advanced. They make a real effort to pin width either side, even though Thomason is naturally a more central operator.
This gives space for the defenders to bring the ball out more, particularly Callum Doyle. They want to get Josh Windass and O’Brien on the ball as much as possible and a lot of their work comes out wide.
Though they are naturally more central attacking midfielders, they’re given license to drift into the channels and support the wing-backs, allowing them to get crosses in.
Chance creation:
The rate the Red Dragons have finished their chances this season has perhaps been a little fortunate at times. They’ve overperformed their expected goals tally more than anyone else this season.
Now that could just be down to good finishing. Moore and Windass are both sharpshooters, whilst others are equally contributing – whether that be Nathan Broadhead or Sam Smith.
Crosses are a big avenue, sending in the third most in the league. O’Brien has a great knack for hanging just behind the striker, meaning he can pick up the pieces if the cross narrowly evades them.
The battle between Moore and Christoph Klarer will be a fascinating one, with the Welshman ranking third for aerial duels won whilst Klarer ranks fourth.
They’ve had the second fewest touches in the opposition box so it won’t be a persistent barrage of chances but they are effective.
Statistical quirk:
Despite registering the third least high turnovers in the league, Wrexham have scored the third most goals from high turnovers.
Key players:
- Callum Doyle – a really effective defender and one who’s role in progression is key too.
- Lewis O’Brien – the Red Dragons’ biggest chance creator, managing his influence will be key.
- Kieffer Moore – the Welshman is a massive threat aerially and is an underrated technician too.
This will be a tough game, as they always are against Wrexham, but their wilting form lately does provide hope for Blues. Winning the battle will be key. The hosts can’t afford to be outfought.
Whether Davies will be here beyond this campaign, he absolutely needs some strong results to save face this season and haul Blues back into the top half. Sunday is an opportunity to begin a run of some sorts.
I do feel the two teams may cancel each other out. It’ll be a scrappy game, but if Blues can get the ball down then they may find joy in and around the Wrexham midfield.
My prediction: Birmingham City 1, Wrexham 1.
