Blues in search of just a third league double.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
It feels like a lifetime since Lyndon Dykes popped up with a late winner at Ewood Park back in August. There was plenty of Blues optimism in the air in Lancashire that day despite the fact two late strikes spared Chris Davies’ blushes.
The win over Blackburn Rovers and the subsequent 1-0 victory against Oxford United proved to be one of just three occasions where Blues have recorded back-to-back victories so far this campaign, with consistency proving a major stumbling block.
Amidst a run of just one win in six, Davies is now hoping to convince the Blues hierarchy that he’s the right man to lead the club beyond this season. So can he kick-start a strong finish to the campaign against a struggling Rovers?
Michael O’Neill’s side are without a number of key figures at a crucial point in their quest for survival. Sondre Tronstad remains sidelined whilst Taylor Gardner-Hickman will be unable to face his parent club.
Hayden Carter missed the clash with Middlesbrough whilst prolific forward Andre Gudjohnsen has also been in the treatment room.
They have added to their ranks by signing former Blues favourite Nathan Redmond on a short-term deal, after he left Sheffield Wednesday in January.
For Blues, the switch to a back five at Derby County proved disastrous so a return to the usual 4-2-3-1 shape feels likely. There’s plenty of positions up for grabs with few players in form.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Blackburn have conceded the 11th least goals in the league.
Opposition’s half:
Blackburn are a really strange side as unlike most sides, they pitch up as a much stronger outfit away from home. There are a number of reasons why that may be the case but it does make them a tricky opponent for Blues.
One of the reasons they could cause Davies’ team plenty of issues is the intensity they play with off the ball. They’re one of the stronger sides when it comes to pressing, injecting plenty of energy into their work out of possession.
They set up in a 3-4-2-1 shape on paper but often it acts much more like a 4-4-2. The left wing-back (Yuri Ribeiro) pushes on into a left-midfield role whilst Eiran Cashin shifts over to adopt the spaces a traditional left-back would.
This allows Ribeiro to close the opposition full-back, Todd Cantwell as the left attacking-midfielder to join Yuki Ohashi as a front two, whilst Ryoya Morishita closes the left-back.
Their press operates based on triggers, happy to sit back and close off passing lanes at times but also springing into life and hounding opponents for spells too.
The energy they have in midfield is key to this, but the absence of Gardner-Hickman will be a blow for them at St. Andrew’s.
They’ve won back the third most possession in the final third whilst away from home they rank fifth for passes per defensive action and second for high recoveries so they have plenty of success in winning the ball back.
Own half:
When their opposition do work the ball into better areas they are equipped to deal with aerial assaults.
They’re a tactile side, ranking first for tackles and third for interceptions, and it’s no surprise with the types of defenders they have. Cashin, for all his shortcomings, is a good option when he’s tasked with winning duels and blocking crosses whilst Sean McLoughlin is a really steady defender at the level.
They’re well set up to cope with deliveries in but they can struggle with combinations in wide areas. They are eager to apply pressure on the ball but when the opposition combine and move the ball quickly, the likes of Cashin and Ryan Alebiosu can get bypassed and struggle to turn.
Cashin’s mobility particularly is an issue so if Blues can capitalise when he gets dragged into those wide, left-back type areas then it could pay dividends for Patrick Roberts or Carlos Vicente.
They’ve faced the fourth least shots on target and generally have been a competitive side defensively. Their issues come more at the other end.
In possession work:
Rovers have mustered up the fourth fewest goals this campaign.
Build up:
When they do get on the ball, Rovers are quite varied in how they look to utilise it.
They put together some great combinations, particularly in the wide areas where they can get a plethora of bodies in close proximity. It’s not unusual to see three or four players in a small zone.
There’s plenty of buzzing around and movement off the ball from the likes of Morishita and Cantwell which opens up new avenues for them to play. Because they push Alebiosu and Ribeiro high, they can have five players across the opposition backline which helps stretch them.
Ohashi may not be the most clinical forward, as I’ll come onto, but he’s certainly got his uses. He’s always showing for possession, making runs into good areas and looking to drop in too.
They can be more direct at times if they need. Ohashi’s speed means he can run into channels whilst they can compete physically down the right flank. Alebiosu is usually the target if they go long as he’s of decent stature in a fairly small team.
Chance creation:
Rovers haven’t been the most prolific in possession team this season but that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t generating the chances.
Away from home particularly they rank as a top half side for statistics like expected goals for, shots, set piece expected goals and so on. Where they’ve been let down is that they’ve taken just the second fewest shots on target.
They do commit bodies forward, or at least have done in recent weeks, with the likes of Morishita and Ribeiro particularly happy to crash the box whilst Cantwell can be happier to hold further back.
They are the biggest xG underperformers in the division and have the worst rate of shots to shots on target, with just 27.7% of their shots on goal.
They could hurt Blues transitionally, with the third quickest direct speed and registering plenty of crosses, again third most. Alebiosu is a real handful down the right whilst Morishita is excellent too.
Ohashi has been a big liability in front of goal, racking up the league’s third most xG but severely underperforming but on the bench they could turn to Mathias Jorgensen who boasts the fourth best conversion rate this campaign.
Statistical quirk:
Blackburn are one of just three sides who are yet to register a ‘build up goal’ according to Opta.
Key players:
- Sean McLoughlin – a stalwart defensively, the Irishman is a magnet to balls into the area.
- Ryan Alebiosu – one of the biggest wide outlets in a cross-heavy team, his physicality will be important.
- Ryoya Morishita – the Japanese midfielder is one of the league’s strongest performers for chance creation and is a constant danger.
Blackburn are a funny proposition heading into Friday, given O’Neill has spent most of the last two weeks with Northern Ireland. I’m sure preparation will have been carried out by his staff but his absence can’t be positive.
That said, they pose Blues threats. They’re a strong pressing outlet, they attack at speed and get crosses into the box, whilst they’re most vulnerable to counters and direct attacks themselves – of which Blues piece together so few.
It’s not a given result. The table is misleading on Rovers, as on their travels they’re a really competitive side and will make it difficult at St. Andrew’s.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Blackburn Rovers 1.
