Blues hoping to bounce back from successive defeats.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
It’s fair to say it’s been a tough old week for Birmingham City. After a surge in optimism following a 2-1 win away at Norwich City, Blues’ play-off hopes crashed and burned with back-to-back defeats to Millwall and Middlesbrough.
Chris Davies’ side were humbled by the Lions and Boro, conceding six goals and barely laying a glove on the former. The prospect of securing a top six finish looks all but gone, with Blues eight points behind Wrexham.
So with the pressure slightly off, how will Davies’ side fare at the Valley?
Charlton have opted for a 5-3-2 shape this season with former Blues forward Lyndon Dykes a regular up front. Connor Coady has found a new role in midfield whilst Sonny Carey has been a mainstay.
There’s question marks over the fitness of Thomas Kaminski who missed the clash with Wrexham, whilst Reece Burke was taken off injured.
For Blues, Jhon Solis is available after suspension whilst Ethan Laird may be handed a first start since returning from injury. Paik Seung-ho may also return to the XI.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Charlton have conceded the 10th fewest goals in the division this campaign.
Opposition’s half:
As you’d expect with a Nathan Jones side, Charlton do like to get in their opposition’s face but the pressure they apply isn’t as intense as you might think.
When their opponents are building out the two forwards look to close down the centre-backs and goalkeeper. Each of the other players in the midfield line and the wing-backs have a player to close down.
However whilst those players might have a player to latch onto, they often opt to drop a few yards and then close once the ball gets played into that player rather than stick to them.
Due to Charlton having a back five system, they have a man advantage defensively but that makes it easier for their opponents to build out. It’s fairly simple to find free players for the opponents.
When they win the ball back high, they’re highly inefficient at turning it into chances. Just over 10% of their high turnovers end in a shot, the lowest percentage in the league, and they haven’t scored a goal from these scenarios.
When they are in close quarters they can be bypassed too, boasting a fairly poor ground duel rate (48.1%). Blues will need to be better at building out than they have been in the last two games, and Paik’s return should help.
Own half:
When they’re defending deeper, Charlton are a much stronger outfit. They’re happy to forfeit possession higher up but back themselves to defend deep.
The defensive and midfield lines sink in, with the two forwards applying some pressure to the first line in an attempt to get Charlton up the pitch.
One area of weakness comes down the side of the left centre-back, usually Amari’i Bell. Bell usually ends up sticking close to Lloyd Jones the central centre-back whilst the left wing-back has to defend the wide channel.
This opens up a channel of space between Bell and the wing-back which can be exploited by a runner. If Laird is deployed at right-back it could open up space for Carlos Vicente or Patrick Roberts to drift into the pocket.
The right centre-back also has to step out at times, with Carey joining the forwards in pressing and therefore the space left needs to be closed off.
Charlton have been really effective at forcing teams out of their box. Despite allowing the seventh most touches in the box, they’ve conceded the lowest percentage of shots inside the box. They’re strong defenders when facing the play but out wide there could be opportunities for Blues.
In possession work:
Charlton have averaged the third lowest possession in the division (43.3%).
Build up:
Charlton’s build up is fairly direct, which reflects in their low possession share as they turn over the ball frequently.
With Dykes up front as well as options like Miles Leaburn it’s easy to see why they are a direct team. They’ve played the second largest percentage of passes forward and they don’t waste time getting it up the pitch.
When they do get it on the floor, they’re fairly limited in their ability to play out. The back three are hardly technicians by trade and Coady is their best passer of the ball in the first line, dropping into the defence.
What does limit them is that the other midfielders and wing-backs push high up the pitch, anticipating a long ball forwards and looking to challenge for the second ball.
There’s a lot of loose balls involved in their matches due to the fact they play long so often and this means Blues will need to be alert in midfield and Solis could be key.
Chance creation:
Charlton haven’t created an abundance of opportunities this season but when they do it’s again been from quite direct methods.
Dykes has made a notable difference to their attacking output, and looks like a reinvented figure in Jones’ system. Who Charlton deploy as his partner can alter their style with Leaburn, Tyreece Campbell and Charlie Kelman all offering different qualities.
Set plays have been a big part of their game, creating over a third of their expected goals tally from dead-ball scenarios. They launch long throws into the box as well as looking to send almost any free-kick into the danger zone.
They’ve got plenty of strong aerial targets and players who have a habit of picking up on the loose balls.
Carey is their biggest shooting outlet, registering the eighth most shots in the division. He’s given license to get forward and has a nice strike on him so tracking him will be pivotal to stop the Addicks.
Statistical quirk:
Charlton have saved the joint most penalties in the division (2).
Key players:
- Lloyd Jones – a real rock at the heart of defence, Jones has kicked and headed away everything this season.
- Sonny Carey – the biggest attacking danger in the team, Carey’s shooting tendencies can cause any side issues.
- Lyndon Dykes – since joining in January Dykes has been electric, and offers a real focal point for Charlton.
The Valley was one of just three grounds Blues tasted defeat at in League One, and that’s a sign of how effective Nathan Jones’ teams can be.
They’re physical, imposing and relentlessly combative so it won’t be an easy victory if Blues are to take three points. That said they lack quality, and have been on a horrendous run – with just four wins in 21 league matches.
Blues were outclassed by Boro and Millwall but hopefully should have enough class to deal with Charlton.
My prediction: Charlton Athletic 1, Birmingham City 2.
