The final new opponent of the season.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
For all the Birmingham City managers that have reigned since I’ve been attending St. Andrew’s, John Eustace is the one I admire most. Whether you love or loathe his style of football, the proof is in the pudding – his results are impressive.
After a bit of a slow start at Derby County, Eustace has got the Rams singing off the same hymn sheet. They’ve won seven of their last 11 matches having picked up just eight points from their opening 10 games.
He’s instilled a similar formula to the one which had Blues sitting pretty in sixth at the time of his dismissal, and one which equally had Blackburn Rovers occupying the play-off spots when he bid farewell to Ewood.
With his sides you know what you’re getting, though there are some slight variations in the Derby side compared with previous iterations of his teams. So what may the Rams look like in his return to B9?
The first blow for the visitors is that they’ll be without on loan defender Dion Sanderson, and it’s likely that veteran Danny Batth will take his place in the centre of the back three.
Liam Thompson and Ebou Adams have both impressed in central midfield alongside former Liverpool youngster Bobby Clark, but Adams’ athleticism may edge him for this clash. American Patrick Agyemang has been in the goals lately, whilst there are options through the middle for Eustace.
From a Blues perspective Alex Cochrane’s length of absence is unclear whilst there could be returns for Kyogo Furuhashi or Marvin Ducksch after a heavy defeat at Bramall Lane. Patrick Roberts will more than likely replace Keshi Anderson and Tommy Doyle is suspended.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Derby County have spent the second longest time without the ball this season, averaging just 41.5% possession.
Opposition’s half:
Derby have a lot of time to get their out of possession work rate, spending plenty of time off the ball and Eustace is used to that with his side generally more than antagonist.
What surprised me is that whilst Derby are far from a high pressing team, they were more aggressive than I expected them to be. They line up in a 5-2-3 shape with the front three consisting of two narrow forwards behind a striker.
The front five players can be very energetic when the opposition play a backwards pass and they do look to apply pressure – something I didn’t expect for a team who rank 16th for high recoveries and 22nd for passes per defensive action.
Now this does depend on both the opponent and the state of the game. Against Middlesbrough for example they were much more compact and passive than they were against Sheffield Wednesday for example.
But the likes of Agyemang and Ben Brereton Diaz as the narrow forwards do like to jump onto opposition defenders and apply pressure. This does open up the option for them to be bypassed and it also allows plenty of space either side of the midfield two for full-backs to stroll into.
Cochrane (if fit) and Tomoki Iwata could be really impactful drifting into spaces vacated by Agyemang and Brereton Diaz and with the quality Cochrane has particularly there’s the chance to split the lines well.
If Brereton Diaz does sit a little closer to his wing-back – which can occur to protect them – it’ll give Christoph Klarer more time to pick a forward pass so there’s space to be had.
When the midfielders do jump it’s Sandre Langas, the right centre-back in the three, who is given the responsibility to step out of the backline and cover the space. That opens up the possibility for Blues to play into the space he steps out of especially when Joe Ward, right wing-back, equally likes to run forwards.
If Batth is the central centre-back there’s also the possibility to exploit his lack of pace. If Blues can get the ball into the forward early, drag Batth out and then move the ball wide quickly he could be caught in a foot race with Jay Stansfield, Keshi Anderson or Demarai Gray which would be problematic.
Own half:
A lot of Derby’s play comes in this phase, defending their box and their own third. It’s a place where they’re fairly comfortable and have the profiles to defend well but like any team there’s also an increased level of risk when the ball spends a lot of time in these phases.
When opponents get into Derby’s half, their response is often to drop very deep. The backline like to restrict the space in behind them, but this can create a big portion of space between the midfield and defensive lines if they’re not in sync.
Passing runners off from midfield can be an issue. The midfielders don’t want to drop into the box as they’ve already got five bodies in that zone so they can allow midfielders to drift in. If they’re not picked up by the defence then there’s plenty of opportunity for free headers – and Derby have conceded the third most headed goals.
When teams do get into crossing areas – and Blues have put in the most crosses in the division – they can also create their own space in the box. The centre-back closest to the ball will stay fairly close to the wing-back trying to stop the cross, to safeguard against the possibility they get beat 1v1.
However when the opponents double up on the back post it drags the other two centre-backs towards the opposite side of the box and leaves a big gap between the back three, and opens up the chance for midfield runners to exploit it.
Paik Seung-ho could be key for this with his aerial ability whilst late runs from Iwata could also be dangerous.
The goalkeeper, Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, has his fair share to do but he’s a strong performing shot stopper and will take some beating. They can be a bit clumsy in the area though, conceding the most penalty goals in the league (four).
In possession work:
Derby have made the fewest successful final third passes in the division (55.14 per 90).
Build up:
Even though this section is titled build up, there isn’t a lot to go off with Derby – at least not in a traditional sense. The Rams want to get up the pitch quickly and don’t spend tonnes of time playing out.
They’ve launched the most passes from the goalkeeper of any side in the division which highlights their emphasis on playing direct. When you’ve got the physical profiles they do in Agyemang, Brereton Diaz, Lars-Jorgen Salvesen and the now injured Carlton Morris it’s easy to see why they back themselves in those duels.
A lot of the play in the middle third is scrappy, and based on picking up loose balls and winning challenges which they do fairly regularly due to the volume of duels but they do have the worst ground duel win rate in the league.
When the ball does drop for the midfielders there are moments of quality and against Sheffield Wednesday we saw some slick, sharp passing forwards from Clark and Thompson. They want to get the ball into the forwards and get them running at defenders so expect them to play forwards when they can.
A lot of their attacking play is focused down the left and that’s probably where their better ball players in Callum Elder and Matt Clarke are. They then want to get the ball into Agyemang who’s the focal point at the moment without Morris.
In essence they’re trying to be positive when they get on the ball – with 40% of their passes going forwards – but they could be let down by the persistence of loose touches and lack of control against a Blues engine room who do mop up plenty though physically they’ll back themselves to impose their game.
Chance creation:
Arguably Derby’s biggest downfall is that what they’re good at, they don’t manage to do enough. When I think of a Eustace team at their best they’re physical, quick in transition and direct. Derby want to be that but their lack of possession limits the opportunities they get to do that.
For example Derby have the fourth quickest direct speed of attack and that benefits the likes of Agyemang and Brereton Diaz who are excellent ball carriers and great running at defenders but the Rams have registered just the third fewest direct attacks.
They’ll get opportunities to do so at St. Andrew’s and Charlton Athletic showed it doesn’t matter how few opportunities you get if you take them. When they are in the final third there’s some excellent goal threat with Joe Ward always a danger arriving late from wing-back.
Derby have registered one of the closest average shot distances and that’s always going to boost your chances of goal, and their headed conversion rate is the best of any side so Blues must not fall into the trap of being penned inside the area.
Set pieces are a big threat for them as you’d expect from a physical, athletic side and they’ve been responsible for 40% of their goals – scoring 12 from dead ball scenarios – so watch out for corners, free-kicks and even long throws.
This game calls for Blues to stand up to the test and hold their own. It’s a big game for Phil Neumann who’s perhaps been a little flimsy physically in duels and will be punished if he continues in that vein against Derby.
Ryan Allsop has had a far from ideal season between the sticks but he’ll need to improve on his shot stopping performances from earlier in the campaign with some fierce ball strikers amongst the Rams’ ranks.
Statistical quirk:
Derby’s matches have seen more penalties than any other sides’, giving away four and winning three. All seven penalties have been scored.
Key players:
- Jacob Widell Zetterstrom – an excellent ‘keeper to have if you’re a side conceding plenty of attempts, they’ll need the Swede to have a strong performance.
- Joe Ward – when you get few opportunities to attack you need players to step up and Ward has been a persistent threat.
- Patrick Agyemang – stepping up in Morris’ absence, the American international has a forceful strike and is a physical presence.
This test is certainly one where the emphasis will be on Blues to force the issue. The Rams may be willing to forfeit possession and invite pressure but they shouldn’t be overlooked, with all of their away wins coming with less than 40% of the ball.
They do boast a really strong record on the road and Eustace’s teams have a knack for upsetting some of the better teams in the league. He’d love to pull one over his former employers.
That said I think Blues’ quality will shine through, and the home side will find a way to get over the line – though it may not come comfortably.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Derby County 1.
