Eustace reunion for Blues in now or never clash.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
As the remaining matchdays slip away, Birmingham City’s play-off dreams are fading. Chris Davies’ side’s failure to claim all three points against a Sheffield United side who were a man shy for over an hour all but canned their campaign.
Blues’ failure to capitalise when they were firmly in the ascendancy against the Blades was telling and the soft equaliser Patrick Bamford to netted earmarked where they’re falling short.
Derby County are fighting to keep their own promotion chances alive after a series of away defeats. They’ve been notoriously poor against top 10 sides this season so will they be able to topple Blues on home turf?
Injuries have plagued John Eustace’s crop of players, most notably with a crisis between the sticks. He’ll be hoping Jacob Widel Zetterstrom can overcome a virus to feature with back-up keeper Josh Vickers also sidelined.
January addition Derry Murkin has taken his chance in the absence of the creative Callum Elder but went off with a knock in Monday’s win over Portsmouth. Sammie Szmodics is yet to truly get up and running at Pride Park, but did net at Fratton Park.
For Blues there may be a return to the XI for August Priske after his substitute cameo against the Blades. Demarai Gray could also usurp Ibrahim Osman from the left-wing spot.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Averaging the third lowest possession in the league (43.7%), Derby’s work without the ball has been crucial to their success.
Opposition’s half:
Perhaps unsurprisingly for a side who have so little of the ball, Derby don’t necessarily look to win it back at speed.
Of course they don’t want to let their opposition have possession all the time, but they’re quite happy for them to take touches in areas where they can’t hurt the Rams.
When the opposition are building out the Derby forwards aren’t stood on the edge of the penalty area, waiting to maraude into it as soon as the referee blows the whistle like a lot of sides do. Instead they’re 10 yards or so deeper, looking to close off the passing lanes.
They are quite man-to-man in their style although in a different way to other teams. The two defensive midfielders will be tasked with sticking to their opposite numbers whilst the forwards block the passing options.
They vary how narrow or wide their forward line are depending on whether the opposition set up with a back four or five. If Blues continue with the 3-1 build up shape they’ve adopted in recent games, it’ll predominantly be Ben Brereton Diaz or Szmodics who stick to Paik Seung-Ho.
Own half:
When the ball does get through the Derby trap they’re fairly tactile in their attempts to regain it. Matt Clarke at centre-back is particularly aggressive in stepping out to challenge, whilst Dion Sanderson also does so.
Derby are a classic Eustace side, setting up to minimise spaces defensively and tasking the entire team with working to get the ball back. It’s not unusual to see all 11 players back inside their own half and even all close to their box.
One area that has proved exploitable is the wide channels. If the forward line looks to close the narrow passing lanes into midfield then the Derby full-backs are the ones stepping onto the wide-players.
This opens up a corridor of space behind them when they do step up and Jay Stansfield particularly has liked to make runs into these areas in recent games.
Lewis Travis and Bobby Clark in midfield are also tasked with sniffing out loose balls and picking up the scraps defensively so they can be pulled wide.
In goal they’ll be hoping Zetterstrom can return. He boasts the fourth best goal prevention rate in the league and was a key part in their draw at St. Andrew’s.
In possession work:
Despite a fairly low possession rank, Derby have proved one of the most efficient sides in the second tier.
Build up:
Derby are pretty textbook for a low possession side, hoping to get the ball forward quickly. This can be a highly effective strategy – as I’ll come onto – but it can also result in some inaccuracy.
It can lead to them being under pressure fairly regularly, turning over the ball easily and therefore giving better sides more opportunities to hurt them. That’s great news for Blues, who have registered three of their five away wins against teams in the bottom six for possession.
They have different avenues of success when they do play longer. They have a wide build up shape and therefore they can get the full-backs in close proximity to the forwards for knock-downs.
They’ve got the likes of Carlton Morris and Patrick Agyemang as forward options, both of whom are competent aerially and even if they don’t win the initial contact they make it tough for defenders.
It will certainly be a contest that best suits a pairing of Christoph Klarer and Jack Robinson for Blues whilst Ethan Laird’s aerial ability could also make a difference.
If they aren’t looking to hold the ball up directly they also have the energy of Brereton Diaz, Szmodics and Clark, all of whom can burst beyond defenders and attack the channels.
Chance creation:
Derby are an effective outfit with the ball, netting the seventh most goals despite their lowly possession rank.
They aren’t even generating tonnes of chances in relation to most sides yet they’ve found a way to be clinical. They rank 20th for shots on target per match and 16th for expected goals yet they boast the second best conversion rate (13.99%).
That compares to Blues’ measly 8.99% and just shows the difference in the rate they take their chances. They’ve also hit the post just six times so they have had some fortune in attacking areas.
One area where they’ve been extremely proficient is from headed chances. Despite delivering just the fourth least crosses they’ve netted the second most headed goals (15). It’s no surprise with Agyemang and Morris.
Set pieces have also proved a big area of creativity, so it’s certainly their physicality that’s telling. Strong defending out wide will be key for Blues so don’t be surprised to see Patrick Roberts and Gray who are more diligent off the ball.
Statistical quirk:
Derby have six players ranking in the top 50 for conversion rate, the most of any side.
Key players:
- Matt Clarke – a magnet to headers and clearances, Clarke is a standout performer at the heart of defence.
- Joe Ward – a big chance creator, Ward’s quality was key in their goal at St Andrew’s.
- Patrick Agyemang – whether he leads the line of features deeper, the American is a real handful and proved so in the reverse fixture.
This will not be an easy test by any means despite Derby’s struggles against better sides. There is cause for optimism given the Rams haven’t been as effective against top 10 sides but Blues have been poor on the road all season.
If there’s any last-ditch hopes of a play-off push, or even just a need to finish the season strongly, Blues should see this as a real opportunity to get three points on the board.
Make no mistake about it though, this game will be a battle. Eustace’s sides are always hard-nosed and I’m not convinced this Blues side can match them in vigour.
My prediction: Derby County 2, Birmingham City 1.
