Blues searching for first win at Portman Road since 2008.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
When these two sides faced off in the Championship curtain raiser, there was already a sense that the game may have ramifications for the promotion race.
Blues were hotly tipped to be amongst the league’s best whilst Ipswich were the bookies’ title favourites before a ball was kicked. Perhaps George Hirst’s late penalty was where it all started to unravel for Chris Davies’ side.
Ipswich have made good on their pre-season promise, and find themselves with a great chance of returning to the top-flight with a little more than a handful of games to go. So can Blues deliver a sucker punch similar to the one they took at St. Andrew’s?
One reason Kieran McKenna’s side have managed to find so many answers this campaign is the depth of the squad available to the Northern Irishman.
The Tractor Boys have the likes of Jack Clarke, Anis Mehmeti, Marcelino Nunez, Ivan Azon, Hirst, Wes Burns, Sindre Walle Egeli and Jaden Philogene to elect from whilst nearly Blues man Chuba Akpom has struggled to make an impact.
For Blues more changes could be in the offing after Friday’s disappointment. Phil Neumann and Jhon Solis could help against an athletic side. Demarai Gray may return.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Ipswich have conceded the second fewest goals in the league (39).
Opposition’s half:
Despite having the third most possession in the league, Ipswich’s out of possession approach has been central to their success this campaign.
The Tractor Boys are very press focused and have won back possession in the final third the fourth most this season. When they do close their opposition it’s fairly man-to-man, with Nunez joining the forward to make a 4-4-2 shape like so many teams do.
They’re front footed and most importantly look to be one of the fittest squads in the division, perhaps due to the ability to rotate players without a quality drop off. This enables them to maintain a really intense press and win back the ball.
When they have regained it, they’ve been clinical. They’ve registered the most shot ending and goal ending high turnovers and are the only team to have ended at least 20% of their high turnovers with a shot. Every time they win it back matters.
It’s that intensity which has enabled them to keep the ball away from their goal for the most part, and has seen them retain a high amount of the ball despite the fact they can give it away by taking risks.
Own half:
Almost contrarily to the fact they’ve been so intense in possession, Ipswich rank fairly low for so many statistics defensively.
They’ve registered the fewest tackles, the second fewest clearances and their goalkeeper has had to make the third fewest saves. Yet they’ve managed to limit teams to the second least expected goals conceded.
They have a knack for surrounding the ball player with a number of blue shirts and funneling them away from goal despite not actually getting contact on the ball.
They have plenty of positional and structural discipline too, with both of the wingers tracking back and Nunez being a deeper midfielder by trade and therefore forming a three without the ball in deeper phases.
Where they can be caught is in the transition between defensive and attacking phases. There’s a real emphasis on getting ahead of the ball when they win it back but if they lose it quickly then a number of players can be caught out.
In possession work:
McKenna’s side have married their strong defensive numbers with a lethal attacking streak, netting the second most goals in the division (67).
Build up:
Earlier in the season, Ipswich’s build up frailties were a major hindrance and perhaps the reason it took them so long to kick on. At St. Andrew’s they struggled to break Blues’ press for the first hour and Davies wasn’t the only manager to limit them.
The pairing of Azor Matusiwa and Jens Cajuste wasn’t coherent enough and the addition of Dan Neil has proved revolutionary. Much of the structure when building out adopts the same hallmarks of the 2023/24 promotion team.
Both of the full-backs are given license to stretch the pitch, though Leif Davis is afforded the freedom to push on more than Darnell Furlong, making a 2-4 shape.
The two midfielders have to be able to receive and Neil has improved that part of their game drastically. He’s press resistant, silky with the ball and has the brain to see danger coming.
McKenna has also found a way to hinder the 4-4-2 shape that so many teams use without the ball. With their full-backs wide, they also have Nunez and their left winger adopting attacking midfield spaces, either side of the opposition’s midfield pairing.
This means that if the ‘wide midfielders’ in the 4-4-2 block go to press the Ipswich full-backs then the longer pass into Nunez or Mehmeti, for example, is on. If they choose to sit off the full-back then that lane opens.
Whilst they do love to play short in their 3-2-4-1 shape, they’re not averse to being more direct and looking to attack the spaces left. In fact this has often proved more dangerous for them.
Chance creation:
Everything Ipswich do is about speed. They’re super effective at moving from their own goal to the opposition’s in no time, and it complements the players they have to do so.
When the ball goes out for a throw-in for example, they’re so efficient with their use of the ball that within four or five touches they can be racing in behind down the opposite flank.
They commit plenty of numbers into the area and it pays dividends for them, knowing they’ll drag opponents deeper and safeguard too.
There’s plenty of X-factor in the squad and the fact that Clarke and Philogene are among the league’s five biggest expected goals overperformers demonstrates this. Four players in the squad have hit nine or more goals this season (albeit Mehmeti scored plenty for Bristol City).
For all their possession, they are a more effective team when they can attack space at speed and, as mentioned, as soon as they do win it back they’re encouraged to make runs beyond the ball. I suspect Blues will look to sit deep and minimize these spaces.
They also have plenty of quality set piece delivery in the likes of Nunez and Davis so it’s no perfect solution to allow them time to pick you off either.
Statistical quirk:
Ipswich’s games have seen the most penalties awarded this season, being given seven whilst giving away five.
Key players:
- Leif Davis – a huge responsibility in an attacking sense, he’s a great foil for whichever winger he’s paired with.
- Dan Neil – a transformational signing, the midfielder has added a composure in the centre of the park that they missed prior.
- Marcelino Nunez – a consistent starter in an ever-changing side, the Chilean has thrived in an advanced midfield role.
Unlike Kim Hellberg’s Middlesbrough and Alex Neil’s Millwall, this Ipswich side have been in this position before and know exactly what it takes to get over the line.
With a few extra days rest, they’ll be happy to have sat back and watched the action on Friday, knowing they have a huge period to come. The quality in their ranks is clear and has kept them in games until the final whistle – scoring the most goals via substitutes in the league.
They have a clear identity, a clear structure and a variety of tools to carve open opposition defences – all things Blues are missing. I can’t see past a home win in this one and the wrong team selection could see it get ugly.
My prediction: Ipswich Town 3, Birmingham City 0.
