Can Blues go one step further this time around against Premier League opposition?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
It’s funny what an FA Cup clash can do for a team’s season. Some label a cup run a distraction, but the positivity it can build can give teams a huge boost. Even defeat in the right circumstances can spur a set of players on.
That’s precisely what happened after last year’s narrow defeat to Newcastle United. Every single supporter donning royal blue who left St. Andrew’s that evening were more sure than ever that this club is going places, and the players alike responded with 11 wins in the next 14 games.
Sunday’s meeting with Leeds United provides a good opportunity for Chris Davies to harness that same buzz amongst the group, perhaps even going a step further to complete the job this time around.
The Whites find themselves a little preoccupied in their battle to secure their Premier League status and may not be up in arms about an early cup exit.
Daniel Farke’s teams have not made it past the third round of the Carabo Cup in the last six attempts whilst his sides have exited the FA Cup at this stage in three of the last four tries.
So how strong will the managers go?
Farke made eight changes for their clash with Derby County in the previous round and I imagine he’ll do similar this weekend.
The goalkeeper will likely be Lucas Perri now Karl Darlow has nailed down the starting league spot. With a three-game week Ilia Gruev may also be rested with Sean Longstaff available to start.
Davies will more than likely make few changes from the two league games this week. August Priske may start whilst it’s a toss up between Patrick Roberts and Carlos Vicente.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Leeds have conceded one goal or fewer in nine of their last 11 matches across all competitions.
Opposition’s half:
Leeds’ set up in the game against Derby was fairly similar to how they’ve operated in their recent league games too so we can presume they’ll adopt a back five shape.
They have won the sixth most possession in the final third in the Premier League this season so there is certainly merit in their work in opposition territory.
With the 5-4-1 or 5-2-3 shape, there’s a lot of emphasis on those two wide midfielders or inside forwards. They’re encouraged to step inside and press the opposition’s centre-backs or midfielders whilst they also need to get wide at times.
With Blues operating with more of a conventional back four at the moment the pressing roles will be interesting.
The wing-backs will be encouraged to step forward when the inside forwards are defending narrow players and that relies on all of the players being switched on to shift across.
Joel Piroe had an interesting role in the Derby clash, operating as a more traditional number 10 with the ball but being asked to drop in on the right without it. If that remains then moving the ball to the Blues left quickly could cause Leeds issues.
Ethan Ampadu was deployed in the back three at Pride Park and had a flexible role, tasked with stepping into midfield to support the pair ahead of him when needed so that could give Leeds an extra body.
Own half:
Leeds will probably be prepared to face a side like Blues given most teams they face have a go at them and averaging as much possession as they did against Derby is unlikely.
It’s very much a back five when they defend deep and even though Jack Harrison (now loaned out) and Willy Gnonto were played in the wing-back positions in the previous round they were still defensively diligent.
The wide centre-backs can be drawn out of position at times. They’re eager to step out of their area and cover for the pair in midfield who can be stretched but that opens up a channel for a slipped pass.
Everton exploited this really well for their equaliser a few games ago and those third man runs from the likes of Tomoki Iwata or Jhon Solis could be key.
There’s always the potential without natural defenders in those roles that they can get caught out defending the back post or can lack some awareness and given James Justin, Gabriel Gudmondsson and Jayden Bogle are all in the Leeds best XI right now it’s feasible they’re all rested.
Perri is a potential target too, having been dropped for subpar performances in the league and boasting some of the poorer ‘shots prevented’ numbers in the top flight.
Leeds really don’t give away cheap goals – recording the lowest errors leading to goal in the PL and the second least errors leading to shots – so Blues will have to carve out their opportunities.
In possession work:
Only Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded fewer successful passes in the final third than Leeds this season (Premier League).
Build up:
Despite it being a back five on paper, Farke’s team hardly look like a back five with the ball. Firstly the wing-backs are given license to stream up the pitch, acting as the biggest width providers in the system.
Then the wide centre-backs, especially on the right, are also allowed to be a little adventurous and step forward down the channels. It’s not unusual to see a 3-1 build up shape with one of the midfield pair dropping in, the other sitting in front and one of the outside centre-backs pushed on.
A lot of their good play does come down the flanks so often there will be a number of players split down either side. That can leave them vulnerable in central areas but the likes of Ao Tanaka are cool operators at progressing play.
Gnonto was given lots of freedom in the first game and essentially acted as a winger with the ball, making it a front four. Piroe as mentioned above drifted into a more natural 10 area.
Farke did deploy Harrison and Gnonto as inverted wing-backs at one point against the Rams with Noah Okafor and Sebastiaan Bornauw acting as the width instead at times.
Piroe proved a real link for a lot of their good play. He thrives in space and with players in close proximity to interchange with but was given far too much room by Derby so having someone close to him will be important for Blues.
Chance creation:
In terms of chances there are multiple ways Leeds can hurt teams.
In recent games Bogle has had a fascinating role, starting from a wide position but making plenty of diagonal runs in behind the backline so Gnonto playing in his role could also be dangerous. The communication in passing those runs off will be paramount.
Lukas Nmecha was a really unselfish worker for the team in the third round victory. He persistently made runs in behind, dragging defenders away from Piroe to create space and that will be an area to consider for Davies.
Having more traditional wingers in those wing-back roles does give Leeds another threat with late arrivals into the box. They have much more goal threat and Gnonto demonstrated that in the game, whilst Daniel James could be a threatening player too.
Midfielders arriving late was also dangerous. Longstaff has plenty of drive whilst Tanaka’s quality is known up and down the EFL. When they both release the ball they’re still dangerous, drifting off the back of markers and into goalscoring areas.
The physical presence amongst the Leeds squad is apparent and set pieces will be another dangerous avenue for them. Okafor and Nmecha will be strong tests for Christoph Klarer and either Jonathan Panzo or Phil Neumann.
Okafor is also a really strong carrier of the ball and could exploit any space Iwata vacates when he gets forward.
Statistical quirk:
Despite conceding the fifth most goals in the league only last season’s top four sides have allowed opponents fewer touches in their box.
Key players*:
*only players likely to feature in the FA Cup game
- Ethan Ampadu – a key hybrid role in the last round, the Welshman possesses both physical and technical prowess.
- Ao Tanaka – able to progress the ball and arrive late in the area, the Japanese midfielder has plenty of class.
- Noah Okafor – the forward has physical gifts and a bullish attitude to his play; he could be a handful.
Leeds will be a real physical presence at St. Andrew’s and prior to the January window I would have had little confidence Blues could upset them.
The first XI lacked pace and power let alone any squad players so the additions made will be crucial in this kind of clash. Solis and Ibrahim Osman particularly could be real livewires and Leeds will find it tough.
After a game of nearlys on Tuesday night, a stronger performance will be needed to upset the Leeds apple cart. A strong display regardless of the result will add a much needed boost to the club.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Leeds United 2 – Leeds to win 3-2 AET.
