Blues in search of a perfect week
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Heading into a game against a Middlesbrough team who have been incredibly resolute, preparation this week could not have been much better for Blues.
A comprehensive 4-0 win over Portsmouth reassured fears over a lack of invention in the squad, with the home side creating a plethora of chances and perhaps unlucky to walk away without an even healthier scoreline.
Followed up by another 4-0 thrashing of Millwall where again it looked as though more goals were inevitable in the early moments of the second-half.
A week is a long time in football and this week has certainly seen the picture change, and the same can be said for Middlesbrough as well. They headed into Saturday’s trip to Vicarage Road with the chance to draw level with leaders Coventry City but a 3-0 defeat to Watford put those hopes to bed.
Then heading to the Midlands to face a Leicester City side off the back of three defeats themselves appeared favourable yet it was looking to be a week of gloom until Luke Ayling’s last gasp equaliser salvaged a point for the visitors.
And to compound Boro misery it looks increasingly likely that manager Rob Edwards could leave the club to fill the vacant role at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Edwards’ pre-match press conference on Friday lunchtime was cancelled.
So a week can change a lot in football and suddenly the feeling and trajectory around each of these clubs is different to what it may have been a week or two ago. But simply one result – particularly before an international break – can flip that feeling again in an instant.
So how may the two sides set up on Saturday afternoon?
Last week I labelled Portsmouth as the league’s most settled XI and I think it’s fair to say Boro may be the total opposite.
They may opt for either a back three or back four yet I’d assume the latter will be chosen given Blues’ shape. The backline has been fairly settled, including former Villan Matt Targett though Alfie Jones will be suspended and Dael Fry missed Tuesday’s match entirely.
In midfield and attack there has been change with Alan Browne threatening to usurp one of Hayden Hackney or Aidan Morris, whilst further forward plenty of players are available to Edwards and they’ll be needed given they’ve travelled twice already this week.
For Blues there will need to be some change heading into the weekend but having played two home matches does aid the squad. Marc Leonard may come into midfield whilst Keshi Anderson or Kyogo Furuhashi could also be given starts.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Boro are arguably the strongest out of possession side so far this season, conceding the third fewest goals and backing that up with strong underlying numbers.
Opposition’s half:
Middlesbrough are one of the most effective sides at winning possession high this season, registering the fifth most high recoveries in the division. I always find that a useful starting point in judging a team’s approach without the ball.
You can see that in the footage too, with a sort of asymmetrical 4-4-2 shape which looks a bit more like a 4-3-3 – though there are variances between matches.
The two forwards selected – likely Tommy Conway plus one other – will more than likely look to close off the passing lanes into the two deepest midfielders for Blues. They’ll start quite close together when Blues are building out, which enables them to then zone in on whichever centre-back receives the ball.
Delano Burgzorg will likely be more central than Morgan Whittaker on the other side. Burgzorg will probably stand just outside of Phil Neumann in order to force the defender back onto his left-foot or back to James Beadle whilst they won’t mind Blues looking to clip a pass towards Tomoki Iwata.
One of the midfielders will start close behind the two forwards whilst the other remains slightly deeper and able to cover wherever a gap occurs. They do like to press once a midfielder receives with his back to goal – one of the main triggers for their offensives.
It’s largely a man-for-man system, but they have energy to cover ground quickly particularly with the likes of Tommy Conway.
They’re more vulnerable in transition where Blues haven’t been especially effective so this game will likely be a better fit for them than say heading to Watford but maybe Chris Davies will be happy to soak up pressure a little more in this game.
Own half:
As well as being an incredibly well drilled and organised pressing team, they’re also a super savvy side when it comes to defending their box. They restrict their opponents so much, and that’s led to them conceding just 12 goals.
Boro don’t allow their opponents to get into decent areas regularly – conceding the third best expected threat against.
They thrive where they can negate the potential for opponents to take shots in those positions or at least they get a block on it or make the shot more difficult to execute.
Their goalkeeper has had to make the fewest saves of any ‘keeper whilst they’ve had to make the fewest clearances of any team too so they’re hardly sustaining lots of pressure for long periods.
In their games their own third only sees about 27% of the action so they’re good at making sure they don’t sit in and absorb pressure for too long.
Even when teams do start to get a foothold in the game, this is often when Boro are in front and that plays into their hands – happy to sit back and counter. They’ve not dropped a single point from a winning position this season which only highlights how disciplined they are.
When they do get ahead they can drop into a 4-5-1 shape without the ball, doing anything to protect the lead. Whittaker often flanks the right-back, almost in a wing-back position, purely to get numbers back and given they’ve conceded the third fewest shots it’s clearly working.
In possession work:
Perhaps an area where Boro have left a little to be desired, they’ll need to become more expansive and efficient if they’re to sustain their strong start to the season.
Build up:
As I mentioned, Middlesbrough’s own third has seen little action in their matches. That’s partly due to their steely defensive attitude but also the fact they want to get the ball forward which is positive.
They set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape when they have the ball and a lot of their play goes through the two midfielders. Whether that’s Hackney and Morris or Browne coming in, they’re all capable ball players and composed under pressure which allows them to play forward.
45% of Boro’s play has come down the right-hand side which is the most of any side in the division. You can see that when you watch them with their right side rotations very interesting.
Hackney loves to drop in along the defenders with the other midfielder sitting just in front of the backline. He’ll often sit to the side of Jones the right centre-back and look to combine with Whittaker and right-back Callum Brittain.
Whittaker as a kind of inside forward is always showing for the pass to feet, whilst Brittain is an expert at running beyond him whether that’s overlapping or even underlapping.
Hackney will then push further down the line and continue to make those triangles, either sitting on the touchline or reverting to a natural midfield role.
Boro like to clip the ball forwards from their goalkeeper and it’s largely to do with their desire to play for the second and third balls. Whittaker has been a big target and he’s won 45.5% of his aerial duels so you can see why – one of the better performers in the league for this metric.
They can then get players close to him and look to win the second or third balls, or even if they turn the ball over it’s then likely in the opposition’s third where they can set up their press again.
Chance creation:
Probably one of the weaker areas of Boro’s game, they’re not the most inventive side in the division and their attacking performance has perhaps been slightly covering over their ability to generate chances.
You don’t need to be perfect to be a good Championship side and their defensive numbers are so strong that often their games are low margin, so they don’t need to score three or four goals often. When they do face an opponent with undeniable scoring power though that does pose an issue.
A decent proportion of their attacking play comes from either high turnovers or from counter attacking opportunities. There’s nothing wrong with that, there’s no way to play but it does mean when they’re given time to create they can come up short – as they did against Watford.
They’ve generated the second most shot-ending high turnovers and their counter attacking opportunities have often come from pinching the ball in the midfield or final thirds so again it’s all about winning the ball close to goal.
The fact they’ve enjoyed so many chances from these areas isn’t a huge surprise when you consider the types of attackers they’ve got. Whittaker, Conway and Burgzorg are all explosive types whilst the more creative talents like Sverre Nypan haven’t always featured.
They put in one of the lowest accurate crosses per match counts in the league yet a lot of their attacking play stems from out wide. This is again because they’re seeking to play inwards from those wide spaces with short combinations and pulling the ball back.
It is a worry that they’ve only generated the fifth worst expected goals number in the division, whilst no player has scored more than two goals. If Blues can find the finishing power they showed earlier in the week the home side could struggle to keep pace.
Key players:
- Callum Brittain – a big role in supporting the attack, the defender has also played a part in establishing such a solid defensive record.
- Hayden Hackney – a player that gets better every season, Hackney has the tools to impact every game in this division and will need special attention
- Morgan Whittaker – he’s finally starting to come into some kind of form for Boro and again is key down the right flank. Has the ability to score from plenty of distances.
Heading to the Riverside has never felt favourable for Blues, with two wins in the last seven visits and memories of that ruled out Lukas Jutkiewicz goal still ingrained in the minds of Bluenoses.
A few weeks ago this fixture seemed a total write off, with Blues unable to break down tough, organised defences. However off the back of an eight goal week it feels like there’s a real opportunity to carry momentum into this fixture.
It’ll no doubt be difficult. Boro are no pushovers and playing away from St. Andrew’s has proved a different beast at times for Davies’ side. That said it would be wrong to go against them given the week they’ve had.
I’m still wary of the test that awaits so I’m going to punt for a draw.
My prediction: Middlesbrough 1, Blues 1.
