Blues welcome high-flying Boro to St. Andrew’s.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
When Birmingham City first faced Middlesbrough earlier this campaign, the Reds’ victory was one of defiance in the wake of the news their boss Rob Edwards was about to walk out the door.
There was plenty of uncertainty at the Riverside that day, and Blues did have opportunities to capitalise against a side who were wondering if their sweet start to the season was about to turn sour.
Yet nearly four months later, the change in leadership had arguably been the best thing to happen to them. Kim Hellberg has taken the side to a new level, with his tactical insights proving too much to manage for so many opponents at this level.
Chris Davies has drawn his own plaudits for his sharp technical brain and finally that ability is being reflected in the results, with Blues looking to close down the play-off hopeful sides that sit above them in the table. So who will come out on top come Monday night?
Boro had looked as though they’d stumbled across a winning formula a few weeks ago yet three games without victory may encourage Hellberg to look for other solutions.
Jeremy Sarmiento and David Strelec could be granted opportunities in the XI whilst Dael Fry and Luke Ayling continue to battle for the shirt at centre-back.
Davies is without the suspended Jhon Solis after he was given an early shower at the Den. Returns for Patrick Roberts and Tommy Doyle are likely whilst Kai Wagner may miss out with injury.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Despite dominating proceedings for the most part, Boro have registered the third most recoveries in the league.
Opposition’s half:
The out of possession approach from Hellberg’s side is a fascinating one, with plenty of moving parts between their on and off the ball structures.
They are one of the more successful pressing outfits, with the fifth best high turnovers in the league. They generally use a 4-4-2 structure off the ball with Riley McGree and Alan Browne the wide midfielders.
They are quite man-to-man with the two pivot players in Hayden Hackney and Aidan Morris latching onto the other side’s two deepest midfielders. This does leave them exposed at the other end.
Part of the reason they’re successful is that they commit so many bodies forward when they attack that they can then smother the opposition and win possession back quickly when they do give it away.
It’s not uncommon to see every outfield Boro player in the opposition’s half and restricting that space is key.
The forward pairing of Morgan Whittaker and Tommy Conway are a hard working unit, particularly Conway who also puts in the hard yards to drop into a wide-left defensive position to give Boro an extra number off the ball.
When the ball is funnelled down one flank by their opponents, the opposite side ‘wide’ midfielder does like to tuck in very narrow which gives them superiority in small spaces and limits the other team’s ability to play out to a spare man.
Own half:
As I referenced above, their man-to-man set-up means that they can be stretched if their press is broken or if the other team play a successful long ball.
The second goal Coventry City scored against them was a prime example of how you can attack Boro with direct play.
Even the full-backs can be pushed on, leaving just two or three players back and players like Jay Stansfield floating away from those defenders left back can cause huge issues. Callum O’Hare had success in this way for Sheffield United.
August Priske’s involvement will be key, tasked with winning duels up against Adilson Malanda.
Ibrahim Osman’s speed could also be key as due to the far-side ‘wide’ midfielder tucking in, it can take Boro a while to get a man over when a switch is played.
In and around the box they do get lots of numbers around the ball and can swarm opponents so Tomoki Iwata’s touches in midfield will have to be tidier than they have been at times.
In possession work:
Boro have averaged the most possession in the league (58.8%).
Build up:
Boro’s build up is one of their strongest areas, able to get the ball into dangerous areas really well and sustain attacks.
Firstly their players are nearly all very press resistant. Morris, Malanda and Hackney particularly can evade pressure and get the ball forward in tight areas.
Their tight midfield combinations, with Browne and McGree tucking in centrally, can be really neat and drag in opponents before they then burst past them.
What helps is their front two split into winger positions with Conway hugging the left touchline and Whittaker doing the same on the right.
This creates a big vacuum of space in and around the other team’s centre-backs who don’t have direct markers. The likes of McGree, Browne and Hackney can drift in and out of this space and it gives them an extra man or two man advantage in midfield spaces.
They’re also not afraid to play direct when they need to. From goal kicks especially they like to go long towards Whittaker or Conway with four players committed upfield, instantly turning around the other team.
Where they have looked vulnerable is when they recycle possession, almost all of their players are in forward areas and therefore are facing their own goal when they receive.
If Blues can time their interventions right they can pinch possession back and have the momentum to drive at goal whilst Boro players are caught in high positions.
Chance creation:
Boro’s chance creation is really fascinating as their xG difference is almost zero, meaning their chance conversion is one of the most sustainable in the league.
I’ve loved the way Hellberg has brought fresh ideas to the side and again the opposition centre-backs have a hard time coping.
When Conway and Whittaker are wide, picking up the ball down the flanks, they’re generally supported by Callum Brittain and Matt Target who are given licence to overlap.
This stretches the opposition and drags the backline wider, creating gaps between the players within it. They then have the three advanced midfielders – McGree, Browne and Hackney – running into the channels between the defenders.
This has proved really tricky to defend as not only do they have so many numbers attacking the gaps, but usually the Boro players are running from deeper so can pick up speed whereas the defenders have a standing start.
Whittaker and Conway each have the instincts of forwards so they attack the backpost, and it’s not unusual to see six or seven players in or on the edge of the box for Boro at once.
They also have really strong athletes so Hackney and McGree can burst past their opposite numbers in midfield, and therefore they’re also dangerous when they explode out of midfield.
They take a huge volume of shots, with Hackney and Whittaker amongst the top three shot takers in the league, and eventually that pressure they put their opposition under seems to tell.
That has faltered in recent weeks however so do expect Boro to be looking to tweak things.
Statistical quirk:
No team has made fewer errors leading to a goal than Middlesbrough (one).
Key players:
- Adilson Malanda – Malanda has made a huge impact in a short space of time and is a key component in a high risk defensive unit.
- Hayden Hackney – arguably the league’s best, Hackney is a key contributor in all aspects of the game.
- Riley McGree – the former Blues midfielder is such a special operator and has all the right tools to make things happen.
After a disappointing evening at the Den, welcoming a top two side is not exactly an easier challenge for Blues.
But Boro have struggled to turn their dominance into wins in recent weeks, and have now gone three games without taking all of the spoils.
At St. Andrew’s Blues are always a stronger side and with some of the more tried and tested options back in the side, I’m confident it’ll be a competitive contest.
My prediction: Birmingham City 1, Middlesbrough 1.
