Blues looking to compound Canaries’ misery.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
‘Norwich City can confirm that the club have parted company with head coach Liam Manning.’
Not the words you want to read before writing a deep dive into Norwich’s tactical identity, particularly given the rumoured candidates to replace Manning ranged from Gary O’Neil to Jon Dahl Tomasson to Will Still. But the man who will be in the St. Andrew’s dugout on Saturday however, is Philippe Clement (pictured above).
The former Rangers boss was appointed as the Canaries’ chosen successor to Manning on Tuesday and will return to the fray nine months after his dismissal north of the border. He has had a decent points per game tally at a number of clubs albeit they’ve largely been dominant sides in poorer leagues.
So the Belgian embarks on a first foray into English football, but how will he set up his side at St. Andrew’s?
The start of a new era could see opportunities handed to players who have been out of favour. Forson Amankwah has returned from injury whilst Emiliano Marcondes and Jacob Wright have each found minutes hard to come by.
Left-back is an area for concern with an injury to Jeffrey Schlupp plus a concussion for Jack Stacey forcing Manning to deploy Kenny McLean there in his last match. Clement opted for a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 shape at Rangers and Monaco so a similar line-up may not be off the cards.
For Chris Davies he’ll likely be looking to build upon the consistency his side began to discover before the international break. Paik Seung-ho sustained a shoulder injury in the defeat to Middlesbrough so the most likely solution is a straight swap for Marc Leonard, given his reluctance to turn to Bright Osayi-Samuel at the Riverside.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Norwich’s off the ball approach has left a lot to be desired thus far, with only three sides conceding more than their 23 goals this season.
Opposition’s half:
Firstly I’m going to caveat this by saying Clement could adjust things drastically but I’m going to go off what Norwich have done so far. I’ll try to add some snippets where I can but this is based on what Manning implemented.
Anyone who reads these regularly will be rolling their eyes when I tell them that Norwich have looked to use a 4-4-2 shape without the ball. Mathias Kvistgaarden and Josh Sargent have dovetailed lately and push alongside each other to make that front two.
Pelle Matteson has operated with Mirko Topic in the pivot spots and given Clement likes one of his midfielders to sit and one to be a bit more of a roaming No 8 I can see that pairing remaining. Mattsson stays close to the forwards in the current system, closing off the opposition pivot. Kvistgaarden is often shadow covering the other midfielder.
Where they’ve often been weak is when teams get beyond the first phase of the press. They have won a substantial amount of high turnovers so it’s working to some degree yet in the second phase players look unsure of their responsibilities.
Mattsson is given a high pressing role from settled phases like goal kicks, but when the opponents play out of the initial press he’s either a) caught too high which opens a huge passing channel into forward players or b) he drops causing a distance between the midfield and forward lines and allowing the opposition midfield to receive freely.
Leicester City found plenty of joy picking out Jordan James in spaces down the right with Topic having to cover so much ground behind Mattsson that he couldn’t stick to James when he peeled wide. This created a 2v1 scenario on Kenny McLean and with the Scotsman’s lack of pace he had to time his tackles perfectly.
Creating that numerical overload could be key to getting at them, though I’m sure Clement will look to address it.
Blues found an avenue persistently out of Millwall’s press at St. Andrew’s which in many ways has looked similar to Norwich’s so another strong ball carrying display from Phil Neumann will be key. If it is Leonard in midfield then he’ll likely receive a fair bit of attention with Norwich hoping to stem the Blues supply.
Own half:
The Canaries do have size to play with, something Clement will want to utilise but what they do lack is speed – particularly given the current injuries. Their last back four of McLean, Harry Darling, Jakov Medic and Kellen Fisher is hardly blessed with blistering pace.
This is a bit of an issue when again teams break through that first line of the press. If they can get the ball into their forwards quickly then Norwich’s defenders are compelled to get tight and look to defend whilst the opponents’ forwards have their back to goal.
If they can lay the ball off however then suddenly there can be three or four players running head on at a defence who don’t have much straight line speed.
The defenders particularly the centre-backs are comfortable with a man in front of them who they can defend touch tight. Marvin Ducksch could play into this but his quick feet and thinking may prove a test for them. Jay Stansfield may be a bit of a nightmare for them.
Whilst Norwich by the stats are a fairly good high possession team, this isn’t always the case. Away from home they give the ball away quite cheaply and invite pressure regularly. Blues will love the chance to be able to wave their attacks frequently.
I’ve touched on their weakness down the left at the moment and again this will play into Blues’ hands. Tomoki Iwata can provide the running power to trouble McLean and create space for Patrick Roberts and Tommy Doyle who each have the creative quality to disrupt the visitors in those areas.
In possession work:
Norwich have averaged less than a goal per game so far this season, one of just five sides to do so, so there’s evidently work to be done in an attacking sense.
Build up:
Despite their decent average possession numbers, Norwich have really struggled to get the ball into good areas consistently. Their games have seen the ball in the opposition’s third just 27% of the time (fourth worst) and this falls even further to just 25% away from home (third worst).
There’s clearly a major issue with their progression and that’s a surprise given they do have some decent passers of the ball amongst their ranks. Naturally you’d point to the system in that regard.
Clement will want his side to dominate play, you’d imagine. As a boss of teams who have generally had greater resources than their opponents he’s frequently looked to be a dominant coach.
Norwich can play forward methodically but there’s a strong likelihood it falls down somewhere along the way. Deploying Kvistgaarden as an attacking midfielder who operates much more like a forward doesn’t do wonders for the midfield balance – although he has peeled out to the left side well at times.
Jovon Makama has been one of their better performers this campaign and his size has been utilised. He’s often much taller than the full-back he’s against as a right-winger and as such a long diagonal ball out to him from Darling has helped get Norwich playing forwards.
I think Blues have a real chance to play on the possession vulnerabilities we’ve seen from the Canaries already. With the right press – sixth for high recoveries and seventh for passes per defensive action – Blues can neutralise Norwich’s passing lanes.
Chance creation:
Again Norwich have generated a fair amount of opportunities lately from longer play. When they get the ball forwards quickly they can get players in close proximity, facing goal.
Sargent is a master at bringing the ball under his spell whilst Kvistgaarden and Makama like to get close to the American.
This will be music to the ears of Clement who has generally deployed his wingers as inside forwards, particularly at Rangers. He relied on full-backs to provide the width with the right-winger especially playing a withdrawn forward role.
This may not be entirely possible to implement immediately given the current personnel struggles at full-back but equally we could see elements against Blues.
Using their stature is another element of the game Norwich need to do more. Across the side they have plenty of physical presence and when they’ve been a bit more duel focused it’s brought rewards. Kvistgaarden has been launching long throws into the box and given the visitors should have a substantial size advantage these could be dangerous.
The Canaries haven’t scored a counter attacking goal yet according to WhoScored yet there could be scope for them to do so. Whoever plays off the left-hand side could cause issues with Iwata pushing on – we’ve already seen how a gap can emerge and Kvistgaarden’s tendency to drift wide may prove a thorn in the Blues side.
Statistical quirk:
Only Sheffield Wednesday’s goalkeeper has made more saves from inside the six-yard box per match than Norwich’s Vladan Kovacevic.
Key players:
- Kellen Fisher – if Norwich are to implement Clement’s inside forward roles then Fisher’s width and support will be crucial.
- Mirko Topic – certainly a leader in the side. You can see him dictating instructions through the game to Mattsson.
- Josh Sargent – not entirely at the races but still a lethal marksman at the level. Clement needs him firing.
Norwich’s change of coach could have a range of effects on the side. There seems to be more quality in the squad than has been demonstrated so far but their confidence must be pretty shot – having lost every single one of their home games this campaign.
Clement will have a few days to get his ideas across if he’s appointed early enough in the week and he may be able to reinstall some belief in the players.
I think Blues are a different animal at home though, and the defeat to Boro was hardly a huge disappointment given the performance was still strong. The loss of Paik is a blow but Leonard has a chance to make the spot his own.
I think Blues will prove too much particularly given the anniversary occasion that surrounds the game and all the positivity this week.
My prediction: Birmingham City 3, Norwich City 0.
