Blues face a serious test at in-form Canaries.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
When Birmingham City slammed four goals past Norwich City back in November, I doubt many Championship followers would have backed the Canaries to soar up the table in the coming months.
Philippe Clement has had an extraordinary impact at Carrow Road, with his side picking up more points than any other side in the league since the 11th December – with a points per game of 2.08.
What may have once looked a favourable away fixture now appears one of the trickiest tests on Blues’ fixture slate, and this game will tell us whether their January business has truly added more tools to Chris Davies’ arsenal.
So what may the teams look like on Saturday?
Clement has overseen a major overhaul of the XI, partly due to his own decisions but also factors outside of his control. New forward Mohamed Toure (pictured above) is proving a revelation in the absence of Jovon Makama and Josh Sargent.
A lengthy injury list has impacted the starting side with goalkeeper Daniel Grimshaw installed for the last two matches whilst there are a host of absentees across the midfield and defensive units.
Valiant FA Cup defeat to Leeds United gives Davies food for thought with strong showings from Jonathan Panzo, August Priske and Ryan Allsop. Tomoki Iwata’s fitness will likely determine whether Bright Osayi-Samuel retains his place or not.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Norwich have kept just five clean sheets this term despite their improvement in form.
Opposition’s half:
What really struck me about Clement’s approach is how many nuances in tactics he uses compared to the common themes in the league generally.
That starts right at the top of the pitch without the ball, where Norwich press in their 4-2-3-1 shape rather than the widely adopted strategy of pushing the attacking midfielder up to make a 4-4-2 block.
It sounds like a small change, perhaps nothing major. But the impact is tangible. By keeping the attacking midfielder in their usual role it not only reduces the transitions between in and out of possession roles to a minimum, but it also closes off the midfield channels.
The premise of the 4-4-2 block is to cut passing lanes, but when the ball gets played out to the opposition’s full-back, it opens up that diagonal bounce pass into the midfield.
With the number 10 (usually Anis Ben Slimane) a bit deeper, he can shift across and close down the ball-side midfielder, shutting off this pass and forcing opponents longer down the channel where they can limit space.
Norwich do encourage the opposition to use their width, with Clement deploying his ‘wide’ midfielders in slightly more inside defensive areas. This helps get numbers in close proximity around the midfield to crowd them out and also forces their opposition one way or another.
Where this may fall down is that better teams can pull their midfielders wider earlier in the play – like Paik Seung-ho has done repeatedly – and it gives the Norwich shape a conundrum.
If he is fit to play he could be a really useful tool whilst Patrick Roberts could be of use on the opposite side if he’s given the nod.
Own half:
Ironically included in the ‘own half’ section, Norwich’s backline is often barely inside their own territory.
There is a certain element of risk to the Canaries’ play and with defensive absentees that presents opportunity but it’s not as easy to exploit as it seems.
There is vast space behind the backline, and due to the fact the full-backs are encouraged to get wide in possession as I’ll come on to, when they turn the ball over they can be caught out.
However as Oxford United quickly found out you can’t just pump the ball in behind constantly. West Bromwich Albion carved open a few really nice openings in the cup clash and with better decision making could have made them pay.
Priske could be a better fit than Ducksch for the reason that the midfield will be congested and the space in behind is there to attack. It could also see Ibrahim Osman and Carlos Vicente selected in the XI.
If it was simple to score against them, their defensive record wouldn’t be as impressive as it is recently (not conceding more than one goal in their last eight).
Blues can pull them apart with third-man runs, from deep from the likes of Jhon Solis and Jay Stansfield as they did so well against Leeds but the execution will need to be spot on.
In possession work:
Clement’s side have begun to dominate proceedings in the majority of their contests.
Build up:
Again when it comes to their work with the ball, Clement’s ideas may not be revolutionary but they are deliberately different to other competitors in the league.
The first thing of note is that they’re not afraid to mix it up and go long. Toure is a real handful running off the last line and has proved his worth in physical duels too when it comes to acting as a target man.
They’re happy to get the three attacking midfielders in close range to him when they play long to pick up those loose and second balls in key areas and being direct has brought success in recent weeks.
This is not always clipped, intended passes either with the centre-backs and midfielders given license to clear their lines when needed.
When they do take a more methodical approach it’s an interesting set up with a 2-4 build up shape. The centre-backs are a line deeper than the full-backs who are encouraged to step on and provide width.
Kenny McLean has been a pivotal part to their game, comfortably receiving possession in tight areas and then moving it forwards – playing the second most through balls in the division.
They again look to be quite narrow when it comes to their ‘wide’ midfielders on paper, tucking in to support Toure.
When they go long they will try to drag Blues players out of their natural roles, with Liam Gibbs particularly making a diagonal out-to-in run from the right flank inside whilst Kellen Fisher pushes on into the vacated space.
Chance creation:
Creating opportunities is a really hard part for any team but Norwich have done so regularly in recent weeks – scoring five in two of their last eight and three in a further two matches.
The narrow positioning of their midfielders has been really key to this. The likes of Slimane, Gibbs and Oscar Schwartau take up the renowned ‘half spaces’ which drags the opposition’s defenders inside as they seek to regain their numerical advantage.
This then leaves big areas down the channels where the full-backs (Ben Chrisene and Fisher) can exploit. What’s key about this is because the players are close together they can combine quickly and move the ball across midfield in a short space of time.
Then the full-backs are anticipating the ball in behind so make the run, whilst wingers are notoriously poor at tracking their men back towards their own goal and therefore they get success running off the back of them.
This makes the role of the Blues widemen really important as well as the jobs of Solis and Tommy Doyle (or Paik) in stemming the source of these short combinations.
In and around the box they have some really sharp finishers and Toure particularly currently boasts an absurd minutes per goal rate – one every 25.6 minutes as it stands.
That’s a real test for the Blues backline and I wonder if the fact Panzo allows Klarer to start on the right of the pair may give him the edge when it comes to naming the side.
Statistical quirk:
No team’s games have seen the woodwork struck than Norwich’s (21 times – joint with Wrexham).
Key players:
- Kellen Fisher – an option at both left and right-back, the youngster is a key attacking threat.
- Kenny McLean – his role in progression is pivotal as well as being a leader in the side.
- Anis Ben Slimane – a lovely operator who knits together everything good about Clement’s side.
Norwich have had a marked up turn in form, and watching the footage they look like a really cohesive side who are executing the manager’s vision perfectly.
It’s a huge test of Blues’ mettle after a solid run of form in the new year. Wins over Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford on the road were important to turn the tide but if play-offs are a serious ambition then toppling better opponents in their own backyard is a must.
Carrow Road has been a torrid hunting ground for Blues, who are winless in 11 matches in NR1. Can Davies get a seismic away win under his belt?
My prediction: Norwich City 1, Birmingham City 1.
