Can Blues finally secure another away victory?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Loftus Road is always a funny one. It’s a ground where Blues have rarely done it the easy way, even nearly managing to throw away a 4-0 lead back in 2019, had it not been for the heroics of Lee Camp.
Quite frankly though, this time around it needs to be straight forward. Blues’ away form has flattered to deceive so far, and gritty low margin wins against Blackburn and Preston can only suffice for so long – eventually that St. Andrew’s feel good factor needs to be replicated on the road.
Over a tough winter month with eight games in four weeks, Chris Davies can’t afford for such drastic fluctuations in both performances and results. The home form itself is far from a guarantee with clashes against both Southampton and Coventry amidst that run.
A trip to QPR presents a good opportunity for Blues to establish themselves as a serious contender in what’s proved a fairly lacklustre Championship. The R’s have perhaps not picked up as many points at Loftus Road as their displays have warranted, but it is a game that an aspirational second tier side should fancy themselves in.
Julien Stephan’s reign has been neither here nor there so far. Streaky spells, defensive reshuffles and a middle of the road league position is a lot of what many have come to expect in Shepherd’s Bush, but there are interesting elements that could make the Hoops a tricky customer.
So who’s likely to feature come Tuesday evening?
The R’s have put out a fairly settled XI in recent weeks with the goalkeeper, left-back and attacking midfield positions seeing the most change.
Karamoko Dembele and Illias Chair both played half of Saturday’s win over West Bromwich Albion so both should be fresh enough to start. Richard Kone may partner the firing Rumarn Burrell.
For Blues it feels like Davies is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Quality depth is not there yet the current set up has left them so exposed on the road.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Only three sides have conceded more goals than Stephan’s side.
Opposition’s half:
Despite ranking fairly low for high recoveries in a league that is littered with teams all about pressing, QPR do deploy a fairly aggressive out of possession strategy.
From opposition build up they elect for a man-to-man set-up, with the attacking midfielder joining the striker in making a 4-4-2 esc shape, though it’s less rigid than others due to the fact they each follow a player.
What’s interesting about their shape is that particularly when the ball is down the opposition’s right, Chair who plays left-wing presses the right centre-back whilst the left-back Rhys Norrington-Davies is tasked with getting up to press the right-back.
Now this won’t be an exact science for each opponent and the man-to-man roles do change even within games with different R’s players picking up different opponents depending on the ball’s position.
A lot of the R’s strategy is about packing central areas and almost allowing opponents to move the ball wider, but with a focus on limiting the spaces they can hurt them through the middle. You can see this by the fact the far-side winger tucks in to help the midfielders squeeze play.
A big downfall of the man-to-man approach is that things can fall apart quickly. When Norrington-Davies is tasked with jumping the right-back it leaves him with a lot of ground to cover. If opponents can move the ball quickly enough they can catch him between players and get one of their wide-men free.
Moving the ball at speed is how teams have found a way through the R’s. The man-to-man strategy also leaves the opposition with an advantage and usually that extra player is the goalkeeper or a centre-back. Better teams can draw them on, find the spare man and have the quality to cut them open.
The man-to-man set up the Hoops use also gives the opposition a fair bit of control in terms of dictating what QPR do. If they drop a striker deep for example it forces a centre-back to follow them out and Stephan’s side have shown they’re willing to commit to that. That leaves huge pockets of space which can be cleverly exploited.
It does allow them to safeguard against transitions with plenty of players in central areas to pick up the pieces from turnovers but they can become vulnerable down the flanks if teams are savvy with their touches and Blues will need to be.
Own half:
The R’s do shift away from the man-to-man approach in deeper defending and that’s wise. What this does mean though is they can get caught between phases and again it’s those longer passes that do this.
When Norrington-Davies presses the right-back it forces the centre-backs to shift to the left and cover the space behind him. However if the opposition far-side winger stays wider then that leaves right-back Amadou Mbengue in a real pickle.
Does he stay tight and leave a huge gap in the backline or abandon his winger? Again this is another way Blues can cleverly manipulate the way QPR not only act in the first phase but how they shift between their defensive positions.
In deeper defensive scenarios they’ve found it hard to pick up and cope with players in the half spaces. When opposition players stay between the defensive and midfield lines or hover between the full-back and the centre-back they struggle to take charge and decide who picks them up.
You see opponents constantly drifting around these areas and it causes a real headache.
QPR haven’t put up awful defensive numbers, particularly at home, when it comes to shots on target faced, xG conceded and even their quality of chance against isn’t massive but yet they’re conceding plenty of goals.
A lot of that comes down to personnel. They’re not a hugely stacked defensive unit and the goalkeeping situation is a mess. Their goalkeepers have made the third least saves of any side whilst only Sheffield United have recorded a worst post shot expected goals difference.
Essentially the goalkeepers are performing really poorly and they’re conceding from near enough every other shot on target. If Blues can carve out four or five attempts at goal like they have done lately away from home there’s a good chance they’ll be in the goals.
In possession work:
QPR are one of the fastest teams in possession, boasting the league’s quickest direct speed of attack.
Build up:
The R’s are a really interesting side in build up as they do have a fair amount of variety to their play. They can be more direct at times and like to attack at speed but they can build out too, though again they don’t like touches for the sake of it.
When they do build out from the back, there’s some issues in their play. The full-backs largely stay wide on the touchlines, providing a lot of the width as the wingers tuck inside.
This means that the centre-backs can be stretched however and there’s not always a solid, compact shape and the gaps between players can be large. Holding midfielder Jonathan Varane does drop between the right centre-back and Mbengue but then that leaves them shorter in midfield.
Varane is a player who doesn’t necessarily add to their strengths from short play. He’s not the most progressive and does often struggle to turn and play forward under pressure so teams putting them under can gain success this way.
When they do move it short down the right where Varane, Mbengue and Dembele can combine in a short space, with Burrell peeling into the right channel, they can get up the pitch at speed.
When they look to play longer they can aim for Burrell or Kone, when they start together, who are both competent at winning duels. What’s great about their longer play is that they can move the defenders around quickly and create gaps for others to attack.
Chance creation:
Again a lot of QPR’s chances come from transitional moments where they can capitalise on the opposition’s lack of organisation.
Burrell is such a key focal point, not only for his goalscoring ability – netting eight in his last 10 – but also for his running off the ball.
As I said above he loves to peel into the channel, and what that does when you play with tucked in wingers is it allows the far-side winger to drift into striker spaces and often means they’re not picked up.
Burrell epitomises a lot of what QPR are about – unselfish running. They like to get their box midfield shape in close proximity centrally and that allows them to use short, sharp passes to get forwards. This also requires other players to make off the ball runs and take players away from this pocket of players and they do that really well.
They do have real creative quality in the likes of Dembele and Chair which allows them to deploy both Kone and Burrell at times – both natural forwards – but Koki Saito is also an option.
Burrell and Kone both have great instincts in getting into good spaces and attacking the last line so picking them up will be key.
Blues’ centre-backs were far too deep at St Mary’s and if they drop back again they’ll allow QPR to run at them which could spell trouble.
Statistical quirk:
Only Preston’s Milutan Osmajic has registered a higher xG per shot in the Championship than Burrell*.
*more than 750 minutes played.
Key players:
- Amadou Mbengue – a talented defender who has shown new sides to his game, his energy is key down the right.
- Jonathan Varane – there’s lots to like about Varane’s game but he’ll need to be braver in progressing the ball to cut Blues open.
- Rumarn Burrell – a striker who has come along leaps and bounds, Burrell continues to prove his quality in almost every facet of the game.
I’m worried about this clash for Blues. The spaces between the lines have been a mess with gaps emerging constantly and the latest edition of that was the depth of the centre-backs on Saturday.
QPR will be able to ruffle the away side’s feathers in transition and with players in the form that Burrell is they’re always a danger.
They’ve been a much stronger outfit at home and Blues have been abject away so it doesn’t look hopeful for the visitors. That said I think there’s still an attacking threat in the team and QPR have faults of their own.
My prediction: QPR 1, Birmingham City 1.
