Davies in search of rot-stopping win.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Managing a century of games for Birmingham City is a milestone that not many have achieved in recent years. Of the last 16 to have taken charge of a competitive Blues game, just Gary Rowett has managed to achieve that feat.
It’s hardly been a time for stability in the Second City, and Chris Davies has almost made it through a second full season in B9, something which even Rowett didn’t accomplish at the helm. Whether he’ll be in charge beyond this season is a different matter.
Whilst dreams of a play-off charge have all but vanished, Davies can’t afford for Blues to limp to the finish line. Three straight defeats, including a rare falter at St. Andrew’s, has heaped pressure back on a team that had pieced together a strong run of form prior to their trip to the Den.
So how will Blues set-up against QPR?
QPR are without a number of key players as top scorer Rumarn Burrell, midfielder Nicolas Madsen and creative talents Kwame Poku and Karamoko Dembele all miss out.
Richard Kone knows how to find the net against Davies’ Blues having scored against them last campaign. Jimmy Dunne will be hoping to extend his hot scoring streak against a favoured opponent.
There’ll be question marks over the goalkeeping position for Blues but Davies has remained loyal to James Beadle for the most part, and I expect him to return between the sticks.
Ethan Laird could return to the starting XI after multiple substitute cameos in recent weeks, whilst Jay Stansfield may replace August Priske or Marvin Ducksch.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
QPR have conceded the second most goals in the league (58).
Opposition’s half:
QPR have spent plenty of time without the ball this season, averaging just 45.7% possession across their 36 matches this season. Now for some teams that sounds like a hindrance, leaving them unable to dictate the game’s outcome.
Yet for Julien Stéphan’s side, they’re more than happy to be without the ball and have had less than half of the possession in every game they’ve won this campaign.
The R’s are well-drilled without the ball, and have marshalled their opponents well for the most part. Their 4-4-2 shape is effective, and the tight midfield they use makes them hard to play through.
The ‘wide’ midfielders actually operate fairly narrow, trying to bait passes into the opposition’s full-backs and then looking to cut off the passes inside.
Kone drops into the midfield to help too, again increasing the amount of bodies in the pack. They’re happy to let their opposition have the ball far from their goal, and Blues did struggle to progress the ball against them at Loftus Road.
They look to cut off the easiest lanes of progression, and the forwards, central midfielders and centre-backs are almost linear in the way they position themselves when the R’s are pushing higher up the pitch.
Own half:
The R’s issues often come a bit deeper. They’re clearly not a perfect team off the ball – they’ve conceded the second most goals. Yet they’ve kept the 10th most clean sheets (9).
That’s not a crazy tally, yet it’s much more competitive than their goals against tally. Therefore their goals conceded are often coming in batches.
That points to a bit of a mentality issue when they go behind/feel a game getting away from them. They’ve also shown frailties on an individual basis.
Goalkeeper Joe Walsh has registered the worst goals prevented figure in the division, whilst the R’s have also had the sixth most errors leading to goals.
One area Blues can hurt them is the fact that they’re so narrow even when teams get higher up the pitch. If Blues can push their full-backs on, they will draw out the QPR full-backs as the wingers are more inverted.
This then opens up a pass down the line into space for the winger and continues to drag other central players wide and opens gaps.
In possession work:
QPR have failed to win a game with more than half of the possession.
Build up:
Given they’re a team that thrive with lower shares of the ball, QPR are an efficient outfit when they look to build out.
They’re not afraid to go long from goal-kicks at times, but they can also hold their own playing short. They’ve registered the fastest direct speed of attack this season so possession for possession’s sake is hardly their style.
Their set up is again a variation of 4-4-2 but it’s closer to a 2-2-4-2. The full-backs are higher and wider, in the same line as the wide midfielders, who tuck in to attacking midfield positions.
You’ve then got really strong central channels to progress the ball with players in close proximity and picking up spaces around the other side’s midfield, whilst the full-backs can give them a wide outlet.
It does leave them exposed in wide channels if they lose the ball, but that’s a risk they’re willing to take.
They also have forwards willing to run off the ball to create spaces.
Chance creation:
The way QPR threaten their opponents is quite different to many teams in the league but it’s still effective.
As mentioned above they’ve got the quickest direct speed in the league and that’s evident when you see players like Rayan Kolli, Kone and Daniel Bennie.
With so many players in those tight midfield zones, you do need players to be able to threaten the other way. Kone especially is really effective at making a move towards the ball, dragging a centre-back with him and then opening up space which Kolli can attack.
When they get into wide areas the back-post full-back can get dragged inside as the wingers are tucked in, which then allows the R’s full-backs to steal in deep from crosses.
Set-pieces feels like it should be a bigger avenue for Stéphan’s side. They’ve netted just eight set piece goals despite over a third of their shots coming from dead-ball scenarios. Against Blues they may find joy from these avenues.
Statistical quirk:
QPR are the league’s ‘cleanest’ team, picking up just one red card and 56 yellows.
Key players:
- Jimmy Dunne – a big figure in the backline, Dunne loves a goal against Blues.
- Jonathan Varane – whoever plays as the holding midfielder has a big role in progressing the ball and covering for the full-backs.
- Richard Kone – in the absence of Burrell, Kone is the R’s biggest attacking outlet and is an intelligent operator.
Blues’ away habits have crept into the home performances as of late and it’s a big worry. It was always likely, but with the away form remaining poor it’s hindered their overall ability to get points.
The season feels as though it’s petering out, yet a strong response to just a second St Andrew’s defeat of the league season is necessary to reassure doubters that Davies can get his squad singing from the same hymn sheet.
QPR have posed Blues problems in recent years, winning four of the last seven meetings and they’ll smell blood in B9 particularly if the hosts start poorly.
My prediction: Birmingham City 1, QPR 1.
