Blues looking for a second St Mary’s triumph since 2005.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Home and away form is a funny thing in football. It’s amazing that a team’s performance and results can vary so much depending on the grass they’re playing on. That’s the case with Blues, albeit in some ways there are shoots of positivity starting to show.
The home displays have been magnificent lately, and Monday’s win over Watford was arguably the most impressive of the lot. A gritty, staunch defensive performance against one of the better sides in the division, littered with moments of forward quality.
The away showings, have left a little to be desired. I am confident that it will turn – after all, Middlesbrough was an improved performance, whilst the last 30 minutes at the Hawthorns could easily have swung the game in Blues’ favour.
Now the away fixtures have been tough. Chris Davies’ team have faced five of the top six, seven of the other 11 top half teams and none of the bottom six on the road. There’s two ways you can look at that.
A). Blues have faced some of the best teams away, and are due some easier fixtures so results will get better.
B). Blues have not found a way to assert themselves in away matches particularly against the better teams, and the fixtures aren’t getting any easier.
Games against Southampton and Sheffield United suddenly look a lot tougher than they did a few weeks ago, and there are sure to be other sides who improve so Davies needs to implement a game plan that enables Blues to compete.
So how may the Saints line-up on Saturday?
Well, Tonda Eckert has found a way to turn all of Southampton’s solid underlying data into tangible results since he took interim charge (on Friday evening, the German was appointed permanent head coach).
The Saints have shifted to a 3-4-2-1 shape and it’s paying dividends with four wins in their last five. Finn Azaz and Adam Armstrong have started to hit form whilst Tom Fellows has looked much more effective in his new role.
For Blues, Tomoki Iwata is almost certain to return at right-back following suspension with the rest of the team likely to stay the same. There could be a role for Kyogo Furuhashi later in the contest.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Southampton have conceded one or less in four of Eckert’s five matches in charge, so what’s been the difference?
Opposition’s half:
Southampton have become such a clever side off the ball since Eckert took charge. There’s plenty to like about their approach.
When their opponents build up they start with a front five looking to close down. The front three of Armstrong, Azaz and whoever fills in as the left attacking midfielder. The two midfielders – likely Casper Jander and Flynn Downes then look to step onto the opposition’s pivot players.
Nathan Wood is a key cog here too, being the defender often tasked with stepping out of the back three to close the vacated space though Taylor Harwood-Bellis also does this from a wider starting position.
Now none of that is ground breaking stuff, particularly at this level with so many teams using variations of the same approaches.
What I really like about their approach is that they aren’t flat out pressing all the time, and they’re not trying to close down for the sake of it. Often Armstrong and the forwards sit just in front of the midfielders, reducing the space between the lines.
Essentially the approach is centred on forcing the opposition back into areas where they can’t hurt the Saints. Their high recoveries number may be low, but as per Ben Griffis’ excellent data platform, their off-ball pressure (which accounts for keeping opponents out of Southampton’s final third and forcing their possession deep as well as intercepting passes) has been improving.
Whilst they may be being less proactive in their out of possession strategy when it comes to turning the ball over high, they’re a more compact and efficient team for the way they’re operating lately.
Now Blues have found it easy to get the ball into Paik Seung-ho and Tommy Doyle lately, up against sides who’ve come out looking to apply pressure higher up the field.
The pair are smart when they receive the ball in tight areas and can evade their men in 1v1 situations. But when the space all around them is restricted and there are two, three and four players in close proximity to close off their options it could be an issue.
Own half:
Southampton’s main issues lately have been defending down the right flank and clearing their lines.
Fellows is technically the right wing-back but he’s by no means a defender by trade. He wants to be further up the field and running towards his own goal is not exactly his speciality.
When Saints are caught in transition or their press gets played through, there becomes a gap down the right. Harwood-Bellis is the right centre-back in the three and it’s his job to come across and close down.
He is capable of doing so, but when Wood is already stepping out to close spaces in midfield, it can create gaps across the backline.
What I like about the current Southampton set up is that there isn’t tonnes of change between the in and out of possession positions for each player. It makes it a lot easier to transition from a solid shape to a creative side rather than having to wait for players to move into different areas. The right side of defence though, is one of the areas where they do need players to cover space quickly.
One area they’ve struggled lately is clearing their lines particularly from set piece situations. Now they do have three tall defenders but aside from that they’re not blessed with lots of height – good news for Blues – so defending dead balls is already difficult.
Opponents have managed to pen them in from set pieces though and have been able to wave their attacks, scoring from the second or third phase of a corner/free-kick. The positioning of players in and around the edge of the box for Blues from set pieces could be key.
Finally on their defensive work it’s worth noting that Gavin Bazunu does not have the best resume between the sticks. The former Manchester City youth product has consistently put up negative goals prevented numbers over the past couple of seasons, and is a complete wildcard in goal.
Sometimes the Irishman will pull off impressive stops, and his accuracy with the ball is great for a side looking to draw teams on but he can also make a complete hash of attempts on his goal. Maybe a few more strikes from range would be a good idea for Paik and Doyle.
In possession work:
Southampton have regularly put up underlying attacking numbers that paint them as one of the league’s best and they’re starting to turn that into goals.
Build up:
Watching Blues’ last couple of away performances, particularly the West Bromwich Albion game, it’s hard not to feel a little worried by the Saints. They’ve excelled at baiting teams on, finding the pass that breaks the lines and then getting plenty of runners into vacated space.
The Baggies carved Davies’ team open on multiple occasions and could easily have finished off the game in the second-half had they shown more composure.
Southampton have been devastating under Eckert when it comes to creating artificial transitions. Now this is one of the biggest buzz words in modern football but their play is straight out of the 2020s coaching textbook.
With adept ball players in defence and Bazunu equally competent with the ball at his feet, Southampton have been able to draw teams onto them, particularly high pressing sides like Charlton Athletic.
They’ve worked the ball along the back line, usually to either Harwood-Bellis or Ryan Manning who, as the defenders stretching the pitch on either touchline, can break them into the next phase.
Manning lives to feed the ball into Leo Scienza who with his trickery and sharp turns can roll his man and get them playing forwards and into wide spaces, whilst Harwood-Bellis loves to fire the ball into Armstrong’s feet who often pulls away from defenders to receive.
They’ve also got the added tool of Fellows’ left foot at right wing-back so he can sweep it across the pitch to either Armstrong or Scienza.
When Armstrong receives with his back to goal, he’s usually got Downes, Jander, Scienza, Azaz and/or Fellows running beyond him, making it easy for a quick pass into space with a runner attacking it.
Azaz equally likes to drop into deep right side spaces, allowing Fellows to push higher up and threaten the full-back with his pace. This can leave Azaz free with the full-back reluctant to jump onto him and leave Fellows isolated against a centre-back and Alex Cochrane may really struggle in this department so the press in front of him needs to be spot on.
Chance creation:
Again a lot of their good work in terms of breaking their opponents down comes from runners off the ball. It’s such a simple facet of the game but the timing and execution of these runs is what makes them so effective.
The Southampton forward players are always changing the angle of their runs and they all make differing ones, which pulls the opposition in different ways and thus creates space for others to run into.
Out wide they’ve got multiple players who can create. Fellows is renowned for having one of the most repeatably effective tricks in the division with his stepover and hanging crosses but he’s also added the ability to drift infield with the ball to his game.
This has been key in allowing Azaz to make these diagonal runs across the defenders and if they time it right he gets into a shooting position – which he’s pretty good at!
On the other side Scienza – who should return after illness – is so unpredictable and that’s what makes him excellent. He’s a proper jinky winger and can back it up with lovely end product too, whilst Manning flanking him is also a great crosser of the ball and also loves to get himself in the box to attack deliveries.
Manning’s set pieces have also proved effective lately with the centre-backs all attacking them.
Jander has begun to show his desire to get forward more often with lung-busting runs into the area whilst Armstrong is being utilised incredibly well.
Not only is he a vital part of build up but he’s also taking plenty of shots – four or more in every game since Eckert took charge and eight at the Valley. When you’ve got a forward with the quality he has, that’s a real danger.
There’s plenty of goal threat in this team and the system feels like the right one to get the best out of them, allowing plenty of players to get forward like they did under Will Still but adding a solid base that restricts their ability to get pierced on the counter.
Their depth is also frightening with youngsters like Jay Robinson and Cameron Bragg as well as plenty of experienced Championship operators like Ryan Fraser, Joe Aribo and Cameron Archer.
Blues have been excellent at restricting the amount of shots they face. They’ll need to be extra meticulous defensively if they are to stop the hosts on Saturday.
Statistical quirk:
Southampton have made more 10+ pass sequences than anyone else in the division (224).
Key players:
- Nathan Wood – an important role in closing off the space behind the midfielders, he has to time his interventions well.
- Leo Scienza – a huge livewire with the ball, his absence against Millwall was a big miss.
- Adam Armstrong – arguably in the best form of his Saints career, Armstrong is huge both in build up and in front of goal.
Without wanting to sound like a pessimist, I’m worried that Southampton could be all wrong for Blues. They’ve added a steeliness to their defensive work whilst they’ve also started to take advantage of their creative talents.
What I like about them is that despite the fact they love to build up, they’ve also got an injection of pace in their play and I’m not sure Blues necessarily have that to break at speed away from home.
The pressing patterns will be crucial, as if we leave Iwata and Cochrane isolated it could get messy. I’d snap your hand off for a point all day.
My prediction: Southampton 2, Birmingham City 2.
