Blues begin the second half of fixtures with a tricky Saints test.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
After a year away, Birmingham City have reacquainted themselves with every opponent in the second tier. There’s some familiar foes and some fresh faces, but Chris Davies and his staff will have a stronger idea of how their opponents may set up in each of the forthcoming clashes.
The first side Blues will face for a second time in the Championship this campaign will be Tonda Eckert’s Southampton. Twenty three days on from a 3-1 defeat at St Mary’s, Davies will hope his side can prove they are learning from their mistakes.
Given the close nature of the two games, I’ve decided to slightly alter my own approach in tackling the Saints. This preview will be based on the defeat on the South Coast, the problems Blues faced and maybe even a few suggestions as to how they could overcome them – though I’ll leave the bulk of that for Davies to solve.
So how may the two teams shape up at St. Andrew’s?
Change has been kept to a minimum for Eckert’s team, particularly since the win over Blues with only the left centre-back and right wing-back positions really seeing change. That said two games in three days may force the German’s hand.
Tom Fellows caused Alex Cochrane all sorts of issues from right wing-back at St Mary’s and with the left-back’s fitness touch and go, Fellows could even have the chance to run at Eiran Cashin or Jack Robinson. Youngster Cameron Bragg could also be entrusted in midfield.
Tommy Doyle’s suspension means there’s a debate in Blues’ midfield over whether Marc Leonard continues or whether Tomoki Iwata returns to the centre of the park with Alfons Sampsted given a maiden Championship start. Christoph Klarer will also be suspended and Demarai Gray may be injured.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Southampton had just 40% of the ball in the reverse fixture despite leading the league rankings for average possession overall.
Opposition’s half:
Despite dominating the lion’s share of their Championship matches this campaign, Southampton saw much less of the ball against Blues at St Mary’s.
Now part of that was down to game state, with Southampton’s possession share dropping from 49% in the first half to just 31% as Blues pressed on for a route back into the game. That said Eckert’s team were equally happy to hurt Blues in slick transition rather than causing death by a thousand cuts, and that really worked.
An interesting feature of Southampton’s game is that they rank second for passes per defensive action, but 20th for high recoveries. It’s like they’re constantly engaged off the ball without actually looking to win possession in that first phase.
The majority of Blues’ best build up comes down the left-hand side and has done for the entire campaign. Southampton recognised that and were often happy for Blues to knock the ball towards Phil Neumann and Iwata, particularly around the halfway line.
Because they weren’t especially looking to force high turnovers Blues did manage to get towards the midway point frequently but progressing it further was an issue. They cut off the left flank well but when Blues did get it down that side their better moments followed.
However even when Blues worked the ball down the left it did suit Southampton. With a wing-back and a wide centre-back covering Gray it prompted Cochrane to step forwards himself to drive Blues upfield but that also opened up space behind him transitionally for Eckert’s team to attack and that could only get worse for Blues if Cashin features at left-back.
They pick their moments to engage really well and are a very well drilled unit centrally. They cut off the middle third very well and the fact Marvin Ducksch had just 14 touches shows how well marshalled the central channel was.
The better moments for Blues in breaking through that structure came when Klarer and Neumann were brave enough to drive through the centre themselves though that poses its own risk if they do lose the ball. More of the same bravery in taking on a man or two will be needed at St. Andrew’s.
Own half:
I did actually feel that Blues had opportunities to cause Southampton issues and I’m sure Davies will be looking to pinpoint these methods come the 29th.
Again the area where Blues managed to hurt the Saints was down the left flank. Due to Saints playing with a more attacking right wing-back – whether it be Fellows, Ryan Fraser or Wellington – it forces Taylor Harwood-Bellis as the wide centre-back to cover the space behind them.
When the wing-back is defending deeper they are vulnerable to a ball over the top, not because of their athletic abilities but because of their awareness. Cochrane loves to clip the ball in behind for Gray and using these passes at St Mary’s it forces Harwood-Bellis to drop deeper and head these passes away.
The problem with that is Jay Stansfield equally likes to drift towards the left wing and therefore if Harwood-Bellis has to stay deeper to cover for the wing-back, Stansfield can drift away from him and pick up both free spaces and the second balls from those clipped passes.
Paik Seung-ho also adopts space in the left channel and he also caused the Saints issues. If that link-up can continue down that side then the Saints struggle to deal with it, as they’d have to sacrifice one of their midfield two to track Paik and therefore disrupt their central block.
To get Paik on the ball consistently Leonard or Iwata need to be brave in punching the ball forwards. If we do commit Paik upfield though it is a risk without much physicality in midfield.
Down the right-hand side Saints were much more comfortable defending. When Iwata strode forward or Patrick Roberts picked the ball up it usually ended with a hopeful cross into the area which the Saints defenders lapped up all day.
That kind of move won’t bring success against the Saints. There’s not enough connections down the right, though I think Iwata playing in midfield may improve the threat. Ducksch is nowhere near strong enough aerially to compete with the three towering defenders for the Saints.
In possession work:
Southampton have scored 24 goals in their 10 games under Eckert.
Build up:
This is where Saints have significantly improved under Eckert for me, still dominating the ball but creating more transitional moments where their quality can show.
Their build up is fantastic, drawing players on and taking risks. The Blues press was inconsistent at best and whilst there were moments where it forced turnovers it wasn’t consistently strong enough.
Saints found constant outlets down the flanks. Blues’ front three (Gray-Ducksch-Roberts) were tasked with closing the back three but goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu always gave the Saints an extra man. The wing-backs were being pressed by the Blues full-backs with Stansfield, Paik and Doyle coping with the two midfielders and Finn Azaz.
The wing-backs would receive the ball deep and therefore the Blues full-backs would have to make up a lot of ground quickly to close them down. Without overly athletic full-backs that’s a big issue and it also poses Neumann a problem.
If Ryan Manning (left wing-back) received the ball and Iwata wasn’t close to him instantly then he had time to pick a pass. If Iwata was close to him then there was plenty of space for a quick long pass into the channel where Neumann could get caught out.
The midfielders (Flynn Downes and Casper Jandar) are both so comfortable taking the ball under pressure that they can evade multiple bodies in midfield as can Fellows when he carries infield from the right.
Another rotation that caused issues was both Azaz and Adam Armstrong dropping in. It forced Klarer and Paik to follow them and get pulled all over the place and again Klarer had a decision to make – get tight to Armstrong and risk being rolled, or let him drop and then have Armstrong running at him.
The man-to-man approach Blues went with will not be effective enough if Ducksch leads the line. He’s not mobile enough to close the centre-backs quickly enough and therefore I think Kyogo Furuhashi could be the right solution.
Chance creation:
Saints created plenty of chances and could have put far more than three goals past Blues on another day. Transitionally they were excellent and their superior athleticism told.
Their rotations in the front line caused all sorts of issues. Armstrong, Azaz and Fellows constantly changing the length of their runs, their positioning etc dragged Blues’ defence all over the pitch and disrupted any structure.
Blues really struggled in moments where the ball was turned over because Cochrane and Iwata were often further upfield and couldn’t make up the ground quickly enough. Saints punch the ball forwards and have the players to capitalise.
The defensive line will need to be much higher. Sinking back was a massive problem and allowed Saints to take aim from the edge of the area without pressure and that led to them scoring twice from outside the box.
One reason I would vouch for Sampsted starting is Iwata’s lack of positional discipline was an issue. Down the Saints left Manning hugged the touchline whilst Leo Scienza sat in the pocket and Iwata got caught out trying to press Manning rather than sticking with Scienza.
The Brazilian ran the show and Blues need somebody to pay close attention to him – I’m not sure Iwata fits that profile.
Also making sure that Manning and Fellows (or another wing-back) are picked up will be key as they can arrive in the area freely and cause big problems so Blues need to be diligent in picking up late runners as well as the obvious threats.
Statistical quirk:
Southampton allowed Blues to take 14 shots inside their area yet just one was on target.
Key players:
- Ryan Manning – a huge creative threat, but also a key part in Southampton evading Blues’ press if they’re to do so again.
- Leo Scienza – the Brazilian’s importance can’t be understated and he can’t be afforded the same space he was at St Mary’s.
- Adam Armstrong – his rotations cause Klarer a huge headache and Blues may struggle to deny him inside the area too.
This is a super tricky test for Davies and Blues. When home wins are absolutely necessary, Southampton are not the side you want to be facing though they have stuttered slightly results wise in recent weeks.
Their speed and ability to play out under pressure will stand them in good stead at St Andrew’s and the fact they handily beat Blues transitionally in the reverse game will only give them more confidence.
Blues will surely learn from the lessons in the 3-1 defeat and the pressing patterns will need to be adjusted. It didn’t work well enough on the South Coast and must be changed for this game.
It’s hard to bank on wins at the moment, particularly as shades of the fragile away mentality started to show against Charlton. With Southampton’s quality they may prove too much especially without Klarer and potentially Gray and it could leave Davies in a tricky spot.
My prediction: Birmingham City 1, Southampton 2.
