Can Blues capitalise against injury-ravaged Potters?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Finally an away win. Blues have had to wait three months to both lead and win on the road since that gritty victory at Deepdale, and finally that duck is broken – ironically by Marvin Ducksch.
Blues have had to wait even longer for a Kyogo Furuhashi goal in the Championship and it was two for the price of one in terms of ending droughts at Hillsborough. It’s now four games unbeaten for Chris Davies’ side.
Stoke City have equally managed to get themselves back on their feet lately, after their promising Championship start seemed to be falling on its face.
Mark Robins (pictured above) guided his side to three straight victories and four successive clean sheets, though they couldn’t force their way past QPR to extend their winning run. Then they lost 2-1 at home to Middlesbrough in midweek.
But their fortunes took another turn for the worse against the R’s with loanee Divin Mubama breaking his leg whilst Sam Gallagher also sustained a long term injury – leaving the Potters without any fit senior strikers.
That’s in addition to the absences of regular figures Junior Tchamadeu, Aaron Cresswell, Ben Gibson and Lewis Baker plus star goalkeeper Viktor Johansson. To make matters worse, on loan goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu suffered a thigh injury and is out for six weeks. Carnage in the treatment room.
So what kind of XI may Robins name at St. Andrew’s?
Forward Lamine Cisse will most likely be the man deployed through the middle for the visitors, allowing Sorba Thomas and Million Manhoef to start in the wide positions.
Tommy Simkin is likely to stay between the sticks in the wake of Bazunu’s injury, whilst there isn’t all too much wiggle room elsewhere with the available crop. Ben Pearson is likely to operate as the deepest midfielder, whilst Boson Lawal is suspended after being sent-off against Boro.
For Blues there are fresh faces amidst the squad and some may even make their St Andrew’s debut. Jhon Solis came on at Wednesday and both Ibrahim Osman and August Priske could be included in the 20.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Stoke have conceded the fewest goals in the Championship to date.
Opposition’s half:
Stoke have not had the most success when it comes to winning the ball high, but they do have an interesting approach when closing their opponents from goal kicks and settled situations.
They set up with essentially a back five and a front five when trying to marshall their opposition. The two wingers as well as Bae Jun-Ho and Tomas Rigo support the forward in closing the backline. It’s almost like a front four with Rigo sitting just behind, plugging gaps.
This does allow their opposition to generate a numerical advantage by using a back four with two pivot players as well as bringing the goalkeeper into play.
Rigo can only close one of the pivot players and therefore they need the two central pressers to cover the other with the angling of their run but if Blues can move the ball quickly, particularly down their left, then they can unlock either Paik Seung-ho or Tommy Doyle.
If Patrick Roberts continues to drop into a more inverted midfield position he could also help break the press.
Stoke will probably try and force the ball down the Blues right where Tomoki Iwata and Phil Neumann aren’t as adept in playing out under pressure. Thomas also ranks as one of the best attacking players for possession won in the league so getting him close to them will be key.
Manhoef isn’t too far behind Thomas on that list so if Blues can avoid forcing the ball into wide channels in early build up, they may have more success.
Own half:
The back five have an interesting role, as the backline is mostly made up of natural centre-halves given the injury issues.
Pearson is not known as a disciplined player, but he’s had to watch his positioning very carefully given the other midfielders are committed much further forward to try and press the ball in early build up.
However when opponents move the ball further up the pitch it’s very much a compact unit approach. It’s not uncommon to see all 11 players behind the ball and the wingers drop in deep to help their full-backs – contributing to Manhoef and Thomas’ strong defensive statistics.
They’ve been pretty good at limiting shots lately, and that’s helped negate the loss of Johansson – who’s the third best goalkeeper in the division at preventing goals. However, swapping him for Bazunu – the second worst goalkeeper by the same metric – there is a much higher chance that shots go in.
They’ve conceded the fifth highest percentage of shots inside the box and the highest percentage of goals inside the area too so Bazunu could become a real weakness.
In possession work:
Stoke have averaged the sixth most possession in the Championship.
Build up:
Stoke’s build up has been one of their faults in my opinion this season, taking too long to progress through the thirds and get their best players involved.
As mentioned above they have a back four predominantly of central defenders at the moment but they’ve continued to operate with quite a wide build up structure. Maksym Talovierov has been extremely high and wide, and they’ve used him as an aerial springboard too when they go long.
The issue Stoke have is their best players thrive in space down the flanks, but their build is often too slow to unlock those qualities – at least lately.
Rigo has been a nice link between the defensive and attacking phases, moving the ball well between the thirds and Bae thrives in picking up spaces behind midfielders which makes him tricky to pick up.
Chance creation:
It will be fascinating to see how Cisse gets on when he’s purely operating centrally. He’s been able to drift in and out of those congested areas lately but when you’re the focal point that responsibility changes.
Stoke need to try and unlock Manhoef and Thomas in transition and therefore allowing Blues onto them may do some good. If Thomas is trying to create in settled possession, his excellent crossing qualities are often wasted as Stoke don’t have a fit, aerially strong presence in their forward line currently.
Short combinations between Bae, Rigo and Cisse could be a way to cut through Blues and they’ll look to attack space left by both Iwata and Kai Wagner when they get forwards.
Stoke and Sheffield Wednesday are tied for the lowest goals by subs and with the current state of the attacking options in the squad, that’s unlikely to change so later in the game their threat may wear off – particularly at the end of a three-game week.
It’s certainly a dynamic front three, and could be quite fluid with Thomas and Cisse interchanging so the positional discipline of Iwata, Wagner and Neumann particularly will need to be key.
Statistical quirk:
No team has been caught offside more than Stoke City (83 times).
Key players:
- Ben Pearson – whoever fills the deep midfield role has a big responsibility in anchoring the side and must be positionally disciplined.
- Bae Jun-Ho – such a clever operator and one who is a nightmare for midfielders, picking up spaces between the lines.
- Sorba Thomas – still the biggest chance outlet for Stoke, Thomas has had a great individual season and can make things happen that others can’t.
This is a real opportunity for Blues after that significant away victory. It’s been a generally positive week, and adding more points to the four accumulated thus far could make it a great week.
Suddenly the club and fans are looking upwards and that gap to the play-offs doesn’t look as big as it once did. With a fairly kind fixture list in the next few weeks, the home form must continue to be exceptional if Blues are to continue building momentum.
Stoke’s injuries may hinder them here, heading to a ground where only Hull have been victorious in the league this season, and Blues could prove too much.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Stoke City 0.
