Blues looking to complete their first league double of the season.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
The game with Watford at St. Andrew’s was a fascinating match. The Hornets refused to be crushed like the three sides that visited before them and grew into the game as it progressed – perhaps they were even unlucky to leave empty handed.
What was even more interesting about that clash is that Watford were one of just three sides to have picked up fewer away points than Blues on the road and yet they asserted themselves considerably on the game, particularly after the halfway mark.
So when it comes to the rematch at Vicarage Road – a place where Watford have collated 25 points, the second most at home in the league – the Hornets will be confident they can go at least a step further against Blues this time around.
Again this analysis is based on the first meeting between the teams, given it’s just one month between the two fixtures. So how will Javi Gracia go about looking to correct his side’s shortcomings in B9?
The defeat in the Second City marked Giorgi Chakvetadze’s return from injury and there’s a strong possibility the Georgian could feature in the XI this time around with Mamadou Doumbia away at AFCON.
Blues will be without Tommy Doyle once more as he serves the final match of his three-match suspension and Bright Osayi-Samuel is representing Nigeria on international duty.
Christoph Klarer is also unavailable whilst Demarai Gray is likely ruled out with injury. Blues have a thin squad currently and a third game in seven days won’t help matters.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Watford have conceded just the seventh least expected goals against tally in the division at home.
Opposition’s half:
Watford are a side who have struggled to win possession consistently in their opponents’ territory so far this campaign, ranking just 16th for high recoveries at home.
Against Blues they took a different route to other sides in order to try and cut off Chris Davies side’s avenues in build up and it had varying success.
Watford weren’t executing a full throttle press but instead chose their moments to engage – usually pouncing on a backwards pass to a centre-back or goalkeeper James Beadle, or when Blues played a square pass and Watford had a number of players around the ball.
The wide players were key to stopping Blues’ progression, with Tom Ince and Othmane Maamma tucking in to form a narrow bank of four in midfield, with the full-backs (Jeremy Ngakia and Marc Bola) tasked with closing the wide spaces.
When in-possession, Blues look to place Paik Seung-ho and the right-back in wider midfield spaces between the central-midfielders and the wingers and this has been a key route forwards. By narrowing the spaces between these players they eliminated those channels and also cut off part of the supply to Jay Stansfield.
The mid-block they used restricted service to both Stansfield and Marvin Ducksch who had been thriving as a partnership at St. Andrew’s before the Hornets visited and was really effective. Ducksch may not start at Vicarage Road but you can imagine a similar off-ball structure will be utilised.
It may not be an exact match as Watford had success shifting to a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 shape against Leicester rather than the 4-4-2 they had been deploying prior. This may change the pressing roles but will still be focused on eliminating central supply.
Watford also looked to force Blues down their weaker right side and often allowed the first ‘free’ pass into Phil Neumann and then backed themselves to stop Tomoki Iwata and Patrick Roberts but with Klarer suspended they may want to pinpoint Jack Robinson instead.
Own half:
I spoke about Watford wanting to cut off the balls into Stansfield and Gray but in transitional moments between their triggered press and mid-block approaches, Blues were able to find success.
When Ince was higher the ball into Stansfield and Gray was much more easily available and it meant Ngakia couldn’t step out as the other would be free to receive. Stansfield also dragged James Abankwah out of position at times too.
Against Leicester City, Watford grouped a lot of players down their left-side in order to limit the influence of Jordan James and Abdul Fatawu but against Blues this is sure to change. The left-side has proved much more deadly for Blues and even with Gray missing, Anderson could similarly replicate it.
When Stansfield adopted more central positions it suited Watford as Ngakia was able to get tight to Gray and he had the strength to win that duel.
Iwata could be a really effective right-back for Blues, playing in the role Osayi-Samuel did where he adopts more central spaces and then bursts forward. He’ll have more technical quality and would be able to move the ball forward quicker than BOS could and this may help break that narrow midfield shape.
With both Hector Kypriannou and Imran Louza more proactive midfielders rather than natural sitters there is the potential for them to go roaming off the ball and leave spaces to be attacked. Therefore the likes of Stansfield, Kyogo Furuhashi or Willum Willumsson could pick up some neat areas on the edge of the box.
In possession work:
Watford have scored the third most goals in home matches in the division.
Build up:
As normal, Blues looked to implement a man-to-man pressing system against Watford. Doyle marshalled Kypriannou and Paik managed Louza whilst the front four pushed onto the Hornets back four.
This did force plenty of turnovers in the first half (Blues winning 11 total). Watford struggled to get their midfielders on the ball, and even when they went long the towering Klarer won the duel for Blues.
However the downfall of doing so against a team with athletic full-backs is that they can carry past their man and the whole system crumbles. Ngakia did this early on against Gray and Blues will only be more susceptible to this away from home.
With Davies’ team lacking in athletic profiles, as soon as the opposition burst past a line of the press it’s very difficult for players to then direct their body weight and momentum in a different direction and as such there can be huge spaces to attack.
In the second half Louza came deeper to receive in front of Stansfield and Ducksch rather than behind them and got on the ball much more often. He managed to dictate the Watford tempo and they had much more controlled success, able to push Ngakia and Bola higher to leave a 3v2 advantage deep.
Blues need to come up with a different solution particularly without Klarer and given Watford have added a body in midfield the man-to-man press is even more risky. That must change if they’re to turn their habits away from home. A three man midfield (whether with three natural midfielders or with Willumsson dropping in) could be the way forwards.
Chance creation:
Watford’s left side is certainly more productive in creating opportunities, particularly since Chakvetadze returned to the side.
Bola has a fantastic cross in his locker and set up the winner at St. Andrew’s by benefitting from an overload. He makes plenty of clever runs and if the winger can drag the Blues right-back wide it allows space for him to underlap and burst beyond Roberts.
Roberts struggles to defend against proper athletic full-backs and we know Iwata’s positional discipline isn’t fantastic so perhaps Iwata in a midfield three in front of Alfons Sampsted may be a better option.
When Watford switched to their 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 shape it focused on combinations down the left with Bola, Chakvetadze and Ince in close quarters. This is partly due to the fact that Maamma has a strong instinct for getting into goalscoring areas as he did in the reverse fixture.
Ngakia may be able to push high and drag the Blues left-back (Alex Cochrane or Eiran Cashin) wider and thus allowing a channel for Maamma to drift into.
Aerially, Watford will be much stronger this time around as Klarer’s absence will allow Luca Kjerrumgaard to pull into Neumann or Robinson, whilst Vivaldo Semedo also carries a threat off the bench from crosses.
Statistical quirk:
Despite only conceding more goals than eight other sides, Watford have managed just three clean sheets this campaign – with two coming at Vicarage Road.
Key players:
- Marc Bola – a key cog in providing width and quality in the final third, whilst also limiting Blues’ creativity.
- Imran Louza – Louza excelled at St. Andrew’s and continually proves his worth as one of the league’s best.
- Othmane Maamma – the goalscorer in B9 and a player who executes a crucial tactical role for the team. Bags of quality too.
I’ve been advocating for a change in Blues’ out of possession approach for a few games now and it is paramount in this game, where the full-backs can break the system so easily.
There were plenty of encouraging signs against Southampton with the deeper shape and should Blues stick with that approach it may be of huge benefit on the road – restricting the spaces for opponents to play into.
Away from home it’s hard to argue Blues can expect anything more than a point at the moment, and until I see more evidence of a change in strategy I can’t be certain results will turn.
My prediction: Watford 2, Birmingham City 2.
