Blues looking to turn a corner on the road.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Given all the furore that surrounded Birmingham City, Tom Wagner and the Sports Quarter last week, you’d forgive fans and all associated with the club for getting a little carried away. Saturday’s anniversary thrashing of Norwich City only added to the euphoria surrounding Blues currently.
The away form however is something that needs addressing sooner or later if Blues are to establish themselves as a real promotion contender, something Knighthead will be keen to see given the progress off the pitch. A trip to the Hawthorns is always one that perks interest.
After a strong start to the campaign and his managerial career, it’s fair to say Ryan Mason is facing increasing pressure in the Black Country. Patience is wearing thin amongst the Baggies’ faithful, not only due to the short supply of recent results but also the style of play on show.
It’s easy to cast doubt over Albion’s form in hindsight given they did start relatively well but looking at the opponents they’ve beaten they’ve hardly pulled up trees. Their wins have come against Oxford, Blackburn, Preston, Wrexham, Norwich and Stoke and just seven of their 21 points have come against top half opposition.
Now it doesn’t matter who your points come against generally. Nobody remembers who you beat, they only remember where you finish and Albion are still just four points off of the play-off spots. This game however feels a big moment for both teams with Blues desperate to turn their away form around on a consistent basis.
So how may the sides shape up on Wednesday evening?
Albion have got a fairly settled core within the squad, with seven players starting at least 11 of their 16 league games and 10 players playing at least 900 minutes.
Alex Mowatt, Isaac Price, Nat Phillips and Callum Styles have established themselves as mainstays in the XI whilst Ousmane Diakité has begun to make his mark in midfield. The big call comes up front with either Aune Heggebø (pictured above) or Josh Maja available.
For Blues, it may well be the same XI that cruised to victory on Saturday. I am wary that it’s a three-game week however the fact Blues don’t face Watford until Monday evening may mean Chris Davies can get away with the same side at least in two of the matches.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Mason’s side have been one of the strongest defensive sides as per the underlying numbers, yet they’ve only kept four clean sheets in the Championship.
Opposition’s half:
Albion are one of the most fascinating sides off the ball as recently in the Championship, most strong defensive entities are built on an aggressive, pressing forward line yet Albion’s are one of the most passive.
They rank 23rd for passes per defensive action and 22nd for high recoveries, and that’s evident in the footage too with the Baggies happy to sit off their opponents and allow them to build out.
They do in spells look to close down and the midfield is often where they seek to pick up those loose balls but their low PPDA rank shows they’re not exactly hands-on at any point.
Maybe they back themselves to defend well in deeper possession and then create transition opportunities but considering their slow, methodical build-up style it’s hard to see the rewards of that school of thought.
Partly their lack of high recoveries could be put down to their relatively high possession rank (7th) but in many ways the fact they’re so passive is the reason their possession share isn’t higher.
Because Albion don’t especially apply tonnes of pressure onto their opponents, it’s almost up to them how much of the ball they want. Teams that want to dominate more have found it easier to do so and that does suit Albion – who have won just one game where they’ve had more than 50% possession.
Other teams have found reliable channels down the flanks, working the ball to a full-back in build up and then sending the ball long towards a winger or forward. Mowatt and Diakite have big roles in covering the ground to get over and cut these out.
This also means there’s a reliance on the opposite flank winger to tuck in and help the sitting midfielder cover the space centrally – Samuel Iling-Junior has been one of the better options at fulfilling this role.
Own half:
Again a more passive approach than others is deployed by Albion in deeper play, backing themselves to stifle the quality of chances and win their duels.
They sink into a fairly low block, using a 4-4-2 shape and allowing the opposition to build out initially. They prefer to make the spaces between the lines small, rather than risk being caught out pressing and left short.
They’ve faced the fourth most passes into their defensive third but they’ve faced the fourth least key passes, whereas Hull City and Wrexham (above Albion for passes into their defensive third) have faced the most and second most key passes.
That shows that they might allow teams to get into decent areas, but when they do they are able to limit how much they can affect the box.
The type of defenders Albion have means that when teams do get balls into the area they can defend superbly. Phillips, Chris Mepham, Charlie Taylor, George Campbell and Alfie Gilchrist are all competent players when it comes to the defensive side of the game.
Albion have conceded the 14th most crosses, but the fifth most into the box. The defenders lap that up, and they can attack incoming deliveries all day long. They’ve allowed the lowest xG against per shot which sums up the quality of chances they’re conceding.
Whether they can track the midfield runners will be important however. Tomoki Iwata has proved a real livewire making late darts into the box for Blues whilst the opposite flank winger can also be a danger. Running off of the back of the home side’s midfielders could be key.
So for Blues there will be space to play into. The first phase will likely be relatively unchallenged, but can the midfielders find that killer ball? Physically the Baggies are probably a step above, at least in terms of height so finding that incisive pass will be crucial.
In possession work:
Albion have made more accurate passes than everyone in the division with the exception of Middlesbrough, but is it effective?
Build up:
Albion’s build up style is probably one you could have expected to see across the division a few years ago. It’s a very slow, methodical style and plenty of touches are taken in the first third.
Despite their high possession rank and their high passing rank they’ve taken just the 15th most touches inside the opposition’s box. That shows how little of their touches actually come in good areas and that they’re often taking lots of time in the early stages of build up.
They make lots of passes across the backline, particularly working the ball from right to left. Good off the ball opponents can cut off their midfielders with a covering approach, and neither Mowatt nor Diakite particularly drop into the backline to pick up possession which forces them wide.
If Styles plays at left-back he has a hybrid role, stepping infield into midfield at points whilst also hugging the touchline at other times and allowing his winger to adopt more inside space.
They’ve played the lowest percentage of passes forward in the league whilst the second highest percentage of passes left and right. Working the ball down the flanks is a big part of their game.
Their methodical style is there for all to see. They’ve played the most 10+ pass sequences, have the lowest direct speed of attack and have the longest sequence time of any team in the Championship.
For Blues this will provide ample pressing opportunities, but they do still have a threat in transition, as they showed against Coventry City on the weekend. Davies’ team need to get it right if they are to go chasing after the hosts.
Chance creation:
In the dangerous areas, Albion fans probably want to see more from their side. When you’re having as much of the ball as they are – making more passes than anyone else in the league – then you need to be turning that into chances.
As I mentioned a lot of their play comes out wide, whether that’s switching the play towards the wingers to get them 1v1 or crossing the ball in dangerous positions.
Mikey Johnston has been a huge creative force and has begun to strike up a fantastic relationship with Heggebø who’s a real danger in the box. When the balls further away from goal he likes to make curved runs inside of the centre-back and in the box he loves a near post dart.
That also opens up space at the back post with Heggebø attracting the attention of the centre-backs and the wingers also making movements across the box. Price has tended to hang behind the far side centre-back and has shown a real eye for goal.
There’s plenty of rotations in the attack for Albion. As I mentioned before, Styles and Johnston dovetail well down the left, whilst Mowatt also pulls out to that side too and can whip balls into the area. Likewise Price pulls out to the wide right which allows the right-winger infield.
The simple fact is they’re not creative enough for the control they have in games. They have quality but I’m not sure the patterns are there to ensure regular creative opportunities. Quality does mean they can hurt Blues though and that should be kept in mind.
Statistical quirk:
Albion are one of two sides who are yet to have a shot against them come off of the post in the Championship.
Key players:
- Nat Phillips – a colossal defender inside the box, Phillips is key to the solidity of the Baggies.
- Alex Mowatt – a real metronome in midfield, Mowatt has the quality in his boots to open up defences.
- Isaac Price – one of the best attacking outlets in the league, he’s destined to play at a higher level.
This game feels like a turning point for Blues. When was the last time we headed into a clash with Albion as favourites?
The away form is a concern, and faltering again on the road following a crushing home win would not look good. However the loss at Middlesbrough still had plenty of positives in it and I’m confident the defeat was more about Boro’s Rob Edwards defiance rather than anything necessarily abject about Blues.
The game will be tough, there’s no doubt about that. But I have a sneaky feeling that Blues will turn the tide at the Hawthorns.
My prediction: West Bromwich Albion 1, Birmingham City 2.
