Blues hoping to maintain their unbeaten league start before the international break.
Here’s James McClair’s exclusive lowdown.
Contents:
• Introduction
• Predicted line-ups
• Areas to exploit
• Threats to be wary of
• Player to watch
• Prediction
For all the pre-season talk about where Blues would pitch this season, the opening three Championship games have been a real positive. We’ve matched the promotion favourites, came through a dogged test at a bogey ground, and maintained our unbeaten record at St. Andrew’s in league matches for over a year.
A tally of seven points at this stage is fantastic given some of the other favoured contenders for automatic promotion have stuttered. In my eyes it means we travel to the King Power without any real expectation. A win would be a near perfect start, a draw would cap off a strong first stretch and a loss isn’t the end of the world.
Leicester City will be quite pleased with their start in a results sense. They weren’t widely mentioned in the same breath as Ipswich Town and Southampton before a ball was kicked but come into this above both in the early standings. There’s still a fair amount of activity that could occur before the deadline shuts, but their squad is strong at the moment.
So which of those players will be lining up on Friday night? There was some change between the two sides that started Leicester’s second and third games but a few spots are nailed on. Jakub Stolarczyk has performed admirably in good whilst Abdul Fatawu has picked up where he left off in his last Championship campaign.
Harry Winks and Oliver Skipp have both started in that left centre midfield role and Hamza Choudhury should come in with James Justin having been sold. Starlet Jeremy Monga started the previous game whilst Patson Daka could partner Jordan Ayew up front.
For Blues, a question mark surrounds Alex Cochrane. Ethan Laird has deputised well in his absence but the lack of left-footed starting defenders is a concern. Keshi Anderson may come back into the side, or Tommy Doyle, with the search for midfield control.
Predicted line-ups:
Areas to exploit:
• Pace in behind
• Risk taking
Pace in behind:
When a team averages as much possession as Leicester have done (63.6%, first in the league) it tends to mean they’re either an incredibly strong pressing outfit, or sides give them the ball back relatively quickly. In some cases it’s both.
Leicester certainly fall into the strong pressing category. They’ve registered the eighth most high recoveries and have allowed the second least passes per defensive action. However, I do think it also falls into the latter category as Leicester’s weakness comes from quick, direct play in behind.
If you look at the Foxes backline, it’s hardly littered with pace. Luke Thomas is the left-back whilst Janik Vestergaard and Caleb Okoli will likely be the centre-backs, though Wout Faes isn’t exactly a Micky van de Ven reincarnation if he does start. James Justin’s departure doesn’t help in terms of speed either with Choudhury taking his spot.
That’s been evidenced in their opening games, particularly down their left flank. Preston North End found it very easy to carve out openings, with midfield runners, high right-backs and strikers making curved darts, all able to breach the backline down that side. Their opening goal came from that side and plenty of chances followed.
Partly that’s down to the personnel. I’m not totally sold on Thomas at left-back and Vestergaard doesn’t want to be dragged into those wide areas. It’s also due to the fact that they are a pressing team.
Ayew leads the press but unlike most teams who often push their attacking-midfielder alongside the striker to press, Stephy Mavididi or Monga are often the ones tasked with joining Ayew.
That opens up the possibility of clipping the ball over them once they’ve been enticed forward, leaving the right back free and giving Thomas an ultimatum of allowing them to drive freely or abandoning his winger to apply pressure.
From goal kicks their line can be fairly deep to counteract this but this can also allow for more space between the lines, with the forward line still looking to squeeze up.
It also doesn’t help that neither Winks or Skipp, who have adopted that left centre midfield role, are renowned for their athleticism and often can’t cover ground quickly enough to close those spaces so the positioning and timing of pass from Bright Osayi-Samuel, and the running from Tomoki Iwata and Demarai Gray could prove paramount.
Risk taking:
Leicester have backed up their high possession percentage with a strong field tilt ranking. Field tilt essentially measures how effective your possession is and the territorial dominance.
Some of the reason behind Leicester’s strong ranking will be helped by the fact they’ve faced a Sheffield Wednesday team devoid of players and a Preston team who were always likely to give up the lion’s share of possession.
However, they do have a lot of their possession centrally and in areas in front of the backline. Their lowest ranked action zone is the middle zone, accounting for 36% of their play so far, the least in the league. That’s not unnatural for top teams but probably shows that they’re having too much of the ball in deep possession at times, whilst a lot of their dominance in the opposing third has come as a result of game state.
They’ve favoured playing quite direct, straight passes through the lines. Both Ayew and the attacking-midfielder have looked to receive the ball behind the opposition midfield in central spaces. This means often the Leicester midfielders and defenders are trying to play passes through the eye of the needle, rather than working the ball around the pitch.
They’ve given up the fourth most high recoveries and that’s easy to see why. Players can be caught dwelling on the ball and many of them are seeking to drive with it in situations where they should be playing safety first. With Blues’ tenacity and ability to close off spaces that could be a real weak point for the hosts.
Stolarczyk is also quite active in coming off of his line. He can do so to good effect, particularly as he needs to mop up those long passes into space behind the defenders but we saw against Preston what can happen if he gets it wrong. With the likes of Gray, Anderson, Jay Stansfield – if fit – and Kyogo Furuhashi lurching on the shoulders of defenders he may be required to come out often.
Threats to be wary of:
• Right one v one
• Individual quality
Right one v one:
Most teams at this level have one side where they’re more effective/look to use more often. For Leicester that’s certainly their right flank, with Fatawu amongst the league’s very best.
43% of Leicester’s attacking play has come down the right-hand side, whilst 28% of their shots have been from that flank too and that’s backed up in the footage. They’re always looking to get Fatawu directly up against his full-back, as he’s so effective at going both inside and outside.
The players around Fatawu are generally instructed with creating space for him. One of the Leicester players closest to Fatawu is tasked with making runs towards goal, away from the ball in order to drag defenders away from him and pin them back.
Initially this was Justin, who took up an inverted right-back role with Okoli playing as a wide centre-back to feed the ball to Fatawu. With Justin gone, it was Louis Page who was making these movements from the attacking-midfield role. He stayed much closer to Fatawu than Bilal El Khannouss did in the first two matches.
When Fatawu does receive the ball, it’s a frightening prospect. He’s incredibly effective at coming inside, using a variety of techniques to create that separation from his defender – whether that be trickery, short bursts of speed or using his strength.
His most effective trick is firing those curled shots at goal when he does get into space. He wrapped in a lovely strike versus Charlton Athletic and whilst he does try them often, when he gets them right they’re almost unstoppable.
He’s also able to loft a clipped cross towards the back post where the left-winger is often attacking. These haven’t come to fruition yet but they are a threat, and Blues’ right-back will need to be wary.
Chris Davies will have a plan for a) stemming the flow into Fatawu and b) stifling him when he does get it. Whether it’s trying to get another number round him or a zonal quirk, it must be effective.
Individual quality:
I have to be honest I’m not all too convinced with elements of Leicester’s play. It’s all been a bit predictable for me thus far, often without the patience and patterns we’ve seen from previous relegated teams who usually have the very best coaches at the helm.
They relied on solo goals from Monga and Fatawu against Preston and Charlton respectively, whilst it was two set-pieces against Sheffield Wednesday that swung the tie.
Now that sounds promising for Blues in some ways, but it’s also a big lesson. There’s a chance Davies’ team could go to Leicester, play superbly, and still come away losers. That’s what they can do to you.
The quality of Fatawu and Mavididi is evident, and was so in their last campaign at this level. Monga is a young talent entering special realms, and will perhaps be spoken about like Jude Bellingham was when he emerged at St. Andrew’s.
Ayew is as good as centre-forwards at Championship level come, with strength like an ox and the ability to bring others into play.
If Leicester are to score a few on Friday evening, I wouldn’t be shocked if one or two are from moments of individual brilliance.
Player to watch – Abdul Fatawu
It would feel wrong to go for anyone else, as much as I contemplated going for Ayew. He’s a livewire on and off the ball, with bags of quality and the confidence to pull off the extraordinary.
I think this is a test that Blues could really impress in. Leicester certainly won’t have as much of the ball as they have done in their opening fixtures. Davies’ team will look to impose themselves, and it feels as though we’re still waiting for a few in the Blues camp to click into gear.
Once Kyogo comes alive he’ll be a massive goal-getter, whilst Gray has been simmering and Anderson hasn’t had the output to match his performance levels, particularly on matchday one.
It’s hard not to be confident when we know just how good this Blues team can be, especially given Leicester’s showings have left a little to be desired in my eyes. A win would be a huge result but something tells me it may be a case of sharing the spoils.
My prediction: Leicester City 2 Blues 2
