Let’s take a look at those numbers: 19, 19, 17, 20, 18, 20, 17, 22.
No, it’s not some kind of footballing Fibonacci sequence. Neither secret code for the super scouting computers at EPIC.
It’s Blues finishes in the Championship since 2016/17.
The last in the sequence signifies relegation. Eventually, after so long circling the drain.
Now back at this level after the League One title campaign, where are we expecting Blues to finish?
Or rather, in the summer after the transfer window closed, what were the predictions? Back to back promotions? Top two? Play-offs?
Did we all get a little too giddy, juiced on a world best set in the third tier of English football, Tom Wagner’s bullishness and talking up Premier League ambitions and record revenues, blithely assessing the new signings as ready made winners adding the cherry on top of the inevitable promotion cake?
Throw in the excitement around the Sports Quarter and a new stadium which, when revealed as The Powerhouse, was genuinely jaw-dropping . . .
You know, where Blues find themselves in the Championship now is perhaps a reflection of where Blues will actually end up. Basically, this is what Blues are. Right here, right now. Positioned 15th at the halfway stage, six points from the play-off zone, eight points cleat of the drop zone.
Does this sit OK with us all?
It seems not. Fair enough. And no doubt Wagner and Knighthead want to be mixing with the elite in the top-flight yesterday.
It’s a new era. The Far East stranglehold and all the attendant chaos and under achievement has ended. Straight to the promised land like a Tom Brady spiral pass in a Super Bowl, baby!
If only things were that straightforward, neatly linear.
There’s nothing wrong with ambition, and striving for better standards.
However, we have to temper such with realism that what’s happened so far hasn’t quite worked as we all would have hoped – the desire to see Blues nestling firmly among the leading lights – and some fixing needs to happen (for disclosure, I felt Blues could and should be challenging for the top six).
Blues have been outstanding at home, a place where an 18-month, 29-game unbeaten run has been compiled. Far cry from being the team that had lost the most games at home in England over a five-year period.
Of course, the last two 1-1 draws at St. Andrew’s were frustrating. On another afternoon, Blues would have won both. They hit the woodwork twice in each match. Charlton Athletic and Derby County defended heroically, sticking all sorts in the way.
Arguably Blues should have had a penalty against Derby, who went into protect and survive mode by bringing on two more centre-halves at half-time in the wake of the sending-off, to play 5-3-1.
Away from home, results have been nothing short of honking. Blues have had large swathes of possession in away games when they have played decently, but they’ve not had the punch, or savvy, or mentality – all those first goals conceded – to make it count. They’ve always been chasing the result.
That is something Chris Davies needs to address, the away day malaise. He knows it. We all know it.
Davies. He is five months into a Championship managerial career. Do we write him off so quickly?
He is still getting a handle on being a number one at this level and behind him, he neither has a backroom staff that are all seeing and all knowing about coaching/assisting/managing in the second tier. That’s not a criticism, that’s fact.
When Wagner, Brady and Knighthead identified Davies from hundreds upon hundreds of candidates to be the new manager, they did so for a reason.
They wanted a progressive, young coach who would implement a change in style to a possession-based game and also help alter the culture and mentality of the squad and club.
He is doing that and it will take time. Although, in fact, the immediate change was remarkable last season after having one summer to completely redraw what Blues were for so long – a defensive, scrabbling, low block side, with a mish-mash of personalities.
I would much rather have Blues playing to an identity, trying to move the opposition and put them on the back foot, work their angles and keep and have the bloody ball than hang on and hope for the best.
And, by the same token, be flexible and prepared to alter the style if it needs more substance and oomph, without sacrificing totally the core philosophy, what Davies mentions as the ‘Birmingham way’.
Changing managers is an easy thing to do. And as Blues found with the Wayne Rooney dalliance, it doesn’t always work. If you believe in someone, and have put so much store in them when appointing, then back them and help them through the thick and thin. We’ll all know when it becomes untenable.
Blues sort of became conditioned to the machine-like pass, pass, pass them into submission in League One and carried it on up another level. That needs tweaking, as mentioned above. In fairness, Davies has constantly encouraged the side to pass forward more, and quickly. Blues now get more crosses into the box than anyone and actually don’t overdo it as much as in 2024/25. He has altered the lines and methods of attack as the season has gone on, even if subtly so that it doesn’t always obviously register.
Yet, broadly, more speed and power would be welcome. And that brute physicality you need in the Championship.
These are things that are a work in progress, whether we like it or not. Coventry City, the current league leaders, finished 16th and 12th in their opening two seasons back in the Championship after League One promotion in 2019/20, building steadily and shrewdly to this point.
Continuity and a clarity of a plan – and sticking to it, whilst not being afraid to add wrinkles when required to hopefully aid improvement – is so important at any club.
The last manager to begin and end two successive seasons here was Lee Clark. Surely none of us want to go back to upheaval and change every six or seven months, or suddenly revert to Karanka-ball, for example?
Recruitment has come under scrutiny. It’s never an exact science, whatever the data tells you. And talking about data, are we reliant too much on the number-crunching, algorithms and whatever is spat out from the super computers, above all else?
There have been some hits, some duds and others still getting to grips with it all. And one thing my Forever Blues colleague Neil Moxley flagged up in our podcast, the team in general does not have that much battle-hardened Championship experience.
Look at last season’s signings. Then add Marvin Ducksch and Phil Neumann, who have found the adjustment tough. Kyogo Furuhashi? The patience shown to him by supporters has been remarkable and I’m not sure where to start with Kanya Fujimoto. Christoph Klarer and Alex Cocharane, too, have not played in the second tier before. Marc Leonard’s first ever Championship start was at Wrexham. Even Paik Seung-ho was up and down last time out in the Championship. Loan players, too, always come with some jeopardy attached.
I understand Blues are planning to make some significant moves in the January window, but it is a notoriously difficult window to land on players you really, really want. And also those three letters – PSR – have to come into consideration. Although, as referenced earlier, maybe this January is a case of adding substance as much as what might be perceived as stylistic fits.
At present, a lot seems to be conspiring against Blues at the most demanding time of the campaign. Injuries, for example – check the casualty list. If Demarai Gray is out for an extended period, he would be a major loss.
Then there’s the red cards: why Klarer wanted to rattle Ebou Adams skull with his studs I have no idea. Tommy Doyle was not in character when he took out Gus Hamer with a scything viciousness at Sheffield United.
As I write this, there remains half a season and a looming transfer window.
Blues are in a bit of a pickle but they are not a basket case. Rationale and not hysteria is the order of the day. From within, from without. That’s what it needs if Wagner’s FEA mantra means what it’s supposed to.
