Blues looking to bounce back from string of defeats.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Areas to exploit
- Threats to be wary of
- Player to watch
- Prediction
It’s been a frustrating few weeks. Blues have suffered three straight losses across all competitions and have looked quite poor in each, albeit in different ways. Port Vale was lethargic, Leicester City was toothless and Stoke City was without desire.
Now I’m not questioning that these players want to win. They certainly do and proved that last season; success is a popular flavour in B9. But we haven’t earned the right to play, let alone win, lately. We require more aggression, more energy, more diligence in our will to score goals and more incision in key moments.
All of that will be put to the test against a Swansea City team that has proved defensively defiant under the tutelage of Alan Sheehan, and they’re starting to combine attacking flair with it. The Swans are no pushovers and Blues need a response on home soil.
I don’t think wholesale personnel changes are needed. As Blues analyst Ryan Deeney rightfully pointed out, our issues lie within the unit. That said I’m not convinced Tommy Doyle is the right foil for Jay Stansfield and one of Marvin Ducksch or Kyogo Furuhashi must partner the Blues record signing.
Patrick Roberts had some tidy moments in his first Blues outing whilst Bright Osayi-Samuel will likely return with the task of marking the tricky Zeidane Inoussa.
Sheehan has changed the midfield balance twice over the past few games, but if Marko Stamenic is available I’d expect him to sit behind Ethan Galbraith and Gonçalo Franco in midfield. The rest of the XI is fairly settled with Ronald a persistent threat down the right.
Predicted line-ups:
Areas to exploit:
- Cutting lanes
- Getting behind the full-backs
Cutting lanes:
Whilst they do like to generate opportunities out wide, Swansea also like to play straight through the heart of their opponents.
I’ll come on to the role of Zan Vipotnik, who is making the most of vacant space in central areas and is offering a real outlet for the centre-backs but the Swans defenders do fancy themselves with the ball.
Ben Cabango and Cameron Burgess like to play the ball forwards, and Cabango isn’t afraid to drive the side upfield when needed. Vipotnik is one of those outlets alongside Franco and Galbraith who adopt quite high positions for midfielders. They look to sit in pockets close to the forwards but are spending substantial periods of their in-possession play with their back to goal.
Now this opens up their angle to receive, and allows them to combine quickly with each other and the forwards – meaning Swans can get the ball up the pitch very speedily. It does however mean that they lack momentum when receiving as they’re often stationary.
That’s music to opposition midfielders’ ears as they can generate momentum as the pass is en route to Franco and Galbraith and then not only intercept it but burst beyond them, gaining a few yards and getting directly at a sparse backline.
The centre-backs themselves can be a bit loose with the ball at times, albeit they are generally competent. Blues need to get back to their own pressing game, which was so rewarding for them last campaign. If they can do so here and time their interventions well they could create plenty of chances.
Getting behind the full-backs:
Later down this piece I’ve talked about the pros of Swansea’s out of possession work, but there is a risk that their full-backs can be caught out.
Both Josh Key and Josh Tymon like to get forwards and combine with their wingers. They’re competent defensively but neither are experts and in the pressing game plan implemented by Sheehan they’re tasked with getting very hands on with their markers. Key particularly enjoys that kind of tussle.
This does allow for balls in behind them however if they don’t win this initial contact, with neither of them possessing tonnes of recovery pace. Even if the ball hasn’t got to the feet of their marker, they can be caught out. They often jump up which opens up a channel between them and the centre-backs for a longer pass in behind.
One v one duels will be a big part of this game for that reason, and both Demarai Gray and Roberts will need to act as a consistent outlet for Blues. Gray particularly is part of one of Blues’ most regular passing patterns where the ball gets worked down the left, before the left winger passes the ball infield to break the press.
When Chris Davies’ team have the ball in the final third there’s also the chance of peeling onto Josh Tymon, which a few forwards have done in recent weeks. Ducksch may be that aerial threat, or perhaps either Laird or Osayi-Samuel will get themselves in the mixer to attack deliveries coming their way.
Threats to be wary of:
- Combination play
- Defensive tenacity
Combination play:
You can often tell how well coached a team is by how replicable their patterns of play are. Swansea’s are certainly polished. Sheehan’s side repeatedly manage to find teammates and their rotations are slick, so what are they?
Well their wide play is a real outlet. They’ve got a brilliant blend of full-backs with both Tymon and Key comfortable at stepping infield and receiving on the touchline. They’ve also got a really nice selection of wingers with Ronald in electric form – both a tricky wide-man and a dangerous goal threat – whilst Ji-sung Eom and Inoussa continue to battle for the left-sided role.
Swansea settle in a 2-1 build up shape with the defensive midfielder (likely Stamenic) a touch in front of Burgess and Cabango who split wide. The full-backs are pushed on, with the two other midfielders looking to pick up pockets just off of the forwards.
The full-backs operate in traditional areas and are able to receive and play into triangles with both a central midfielder and the ball-side winger making differing runs (one in behind and one coming close).
Another outlet for both the full-backs and the centre-backs is forward Vipotnik who consistently drops into vacant spaces centrally, with the midfielders pulling wider and creating this room. Often he’s picked out and able to find either a runner in close proximity for a lay-off or a sweeping ball out to the flank.
When they look to be more direct there’s the option of a long switch towards Ronald who’s more than aerially competitive. The signal for this is often Key dropping in to form a back three.
When they do get it in wide areas their triangle play is effective at creating one v one scenarios. They’re always looking to feed the wingers – who both possess lovely carrying abilities – with the full-backs often stepping infield to open up the channel to feet for the widemen.
Galbraith and Franco both like to make those diagonal-cutting runs towards the touchline to receive, in the knowledge that either the winger or the full-back will be continuing their run beyond them to create space.
These combinations are all really simple for players who are well coached, and often it’s different players making the runs but they all know the roles that need to be filled. For the team defending these movements it’s all about communication and concentration, or you can suddenly become isolated and lacking in numbers.
Defensive tenacity:
Defensively Swansea have really impressed me. They again look like a well-drilled outfit, and they defend as a unit which is always more effective.
We know so many teams press these days, nearly everybody does to some extent, but Swansea are a great example of it. In both the high and middle phases they press as a pack, being very compact in terms of closing distances.
The midfield pack follow the forwards in high phases, as the opposition try and build out. Galbraith joins Vipotnik to form the 4-4-2 shape which is so common at the moment, but Stamenic and Franco push right on with them.
When that translates into phases in the middle of the park the Swans team are close to each other and that’s their key strength. They surround players, close off pockets of space and limit combinations for their opponents. You can even see in the footage the frustrations of Stamenic when Franco isn’t close enough to him and vice versa.
I do have some slight concerns over the issues Blues were caused by the effective pressing teams last season. Charlton Athletic, Leyton Orient, Stockport County and Reading all ranked amongst the five best sides for possession won in the final third, and each caused Blues problems at times.
That perhaps doesn’t bode well for a match against Swansea who rank fifth for passes per defensive action and 11th for high turnovers, particularly when the crowd will be intent on seeing an upturn in performance level which could add to the frustration if Swans can disrupt the hosts.
Key man – Zan Vipotnik
The Slovenian is in fine form lately, netting four goals already this season. His all-round game has been fantastic too, linking play and dropping in to help Swans move the ball through the lines. It’ll be a tall order for Blues to keep him quiet.
This has all the makings of a really frustrating early afternoon. Sheehan’s side are resolute, organized and disciplined; all qualities that could stifle Blues. The invention has been poor in recent weeks, and I was disappointed at the lack of desire to get in the box at Stoke.
The field tilt for Blues is strong – ranking second in the league – that shows that the system is getting us into the right areas. It’s then up to the decision making of the players to create, and capitalize on the space they’re getting into.
I expect a somewhat cagey affair, with both sides having their fair share of defending to do. Ultimately I still have confidence that the Blues squad has enough quality. We still haven’t seen the best of Ducksch, Kyogo, Roberts and more. Maybe Saturday is the time for the tide to change.
Prediction: Blues 1, Swansea City 0.
