Blues seeking to build on late Lyndon Dykes winner.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Lyndon Dykes to the rescue again. The Scotsman came up trumps for Chris Davies once more, a manager that tried to ship him north of the border in the late hour of deadline day though Dykes is no doubt proving his weight in gold. He’s been the difference between the League One Champions sitting on 10 points or six.
The win against Swansea City felt like a big one. The outpouring of emotion inside St. Andrew’s was almost as much relief as it was euphoria, given the frustrations endured over the last few weeks. Davies has proved he can galvanise his team after a poor result, the question is can he spur them onto a run akin to last season’s post-Shrewsbury Town?
Coventry City are the next opponent Blues will do battle with in that quest and tests don’t come much tougher based off of the early standings. Frank Lampard’s side have had an interesting start to the season, and perhaps haven’t got the points haul their performances have deserved despite their unbeaten record remaining intact.
A 0-0 draw with Hull City on opening day was a damp squib following last season’s meteoric rise that ended in Play-Off heartbreak. They responded with crushing wins over Derby County (5-3) and QPR (7-1) but since then have shared the points in games against Oxford United, Norwich City and Leicester City.
That’s all the more baffling considering their numbers paint them to be an attacking juggernaut safeguarded by a competitive defence. Coventry sit first for expected points, field tilt, goals for, shots for, expected goals for, open play expected goals for, expected threat for, non-penalty expected goals per shot against.
That’s a pretty strong indication of the quality of both the system and the individuals in the squad, plus that’s without considering their strong ranks in most defensive areas. So which players will Lampard be deploying to snatch a first win in four?
Ephron Mason-Clark’s fitness is an area of interest for this game. The winger missed the trip to Leicester with Brandon Thomas-Asante deployed off of the left wing in his absence but should he be available he’ll likely regain his place in the XI.
The rest of the side is fairly settled. Haji Wright is leading the line regularly this campaign after all the debate over his position last campaign, whilst a pairing of Matt Grimes and Victor Torp has been established in the centre of the park following Ben Sheaf’s move to Wrexham.
For Blues there were a string of strong performances both within the XI and off of the bench against Swansea but don’t be surprised to see the same starting team put out. Lewis Koumas and Demarai Gray could be key figures out wide whilst Jack Robinson added an assuredness to the backline.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession play:
Coventry are a very tactile pressing team, looking to be aggressive and go man-to-man with their opponents. They adopt a very popular 4-4-2 shape without the ball, with Jack Rudoni joining Wright up front.
They like to get at their opponents, jumping onto them and winning their individual battles in order to regain possession in dangerous areas. Torp sits just behind the forwards and players receiving with their backs to goal is often the trigger for the Sky Blues to swarm their opponents.
They haven’t been as effective as you may expect, winning the seventh least high recoveries thus far. They do boast the seventh best passes per defensive action number however which highlights the intensity of their press, even if they aren’t regaining it quite as often as they would like.
For previous iterations of Davies’ Blues that may have sounded the alarm bells – think back to the mistakes against Leyton Orient and Peterborough United this time a year ago – but this version aren’t afraid to head it and kick it when needs must. Blues have suffered the seventh least high recoveries against.
So when watching the game against Leicester, one of the most composed outfits in the division, I was looking to see how they would cope with the press. There were big moments of inspiration for Blues and Davies.
Coventry have a habit of focusing their attention on the ball, perhaps looking to overturn it regardless of the consequences. They’re whole hearted in their off the ball approach, with Torp and Grimes often squeezing really high upfield and thus leaving one of the centre-backs to step out and close that space if need be.
Leicester managed to play around the press on a number of occasions, with some neat one touch play around the backline and allowing them to unlock space on the opposite side to the ball’s starting position. Robinson will be a big help in this sense being a left-footed centre-back and therefore able to access more angles when he receives than when Christoph Klarer operated on that side.
Ryan Allsop isn’t shy of receiving the ball in any scenario whilst Klarer looks much more comfortable on his natural right side so being able to bait the press and play both through and around it will be a big part of Blues’ game plan. It will require Tomoki Iwata and Paik Seung-ho to be at their absolute best, tasked with receiving, turning and distributing in small pockets of space.
When the ball breaches that line there’s also the possibility they can be beaten defensively with some elements of their defensive structure flattering to deceive. Jay Dasilva has been the preferred left-back for Lampard, but struggled hugely against Abdul Fatawu for Leicester and generally isn’t the strongest one v one defender.
Fatawu was time and time again able to get past Dasilva by sizing him up and being direct which is why either Gray or Koumas feel the right options to put up against him. He’s also vulnerable aerially with long clipped balls forward as Oxford often aimed to utilise and either Ethan Laird or Bright Osayi-Samuel could win that battle.
Bobby Thomas and Liam Kitching are both capable defenders at the level but each have their moments. Both of them are prone to giving away silly fouls in duels with forwards particularly in and around the edge of the box, preferring to wrestle in an aerial duel rather than back themselves to deal with the danger.
Milan Van Ewijk does like to push forward but has the speed and physical capabilities to recover over long distances. Carl Rushworth is a goalkeeper I’m a big fan of and has the ability to perform some really top saves.
The fact Coventry have conceded the eight most goals in the division but the fifth least expected goals against and the fifth least shots against points to there being some individual errors and perhaps a bit of bad fortune. Blues will hope to capitalise on both.
In possession play:
Now let’s get to the good bit. How are the Sky Blues with the ball? Well the answer seems to be pretty excellent. Firstly they have a lot of it, averaging 55.5% per game, the seventh most but sitting second before their trip to Leicester – a game where they wouldn’t have expected to dominate proceedings.
They build out with a back three, only unlike other sides it’s not formed by tucking in a full-back but instead with Grimes splitting the centre-backs. He drops in, picks up the ball and looks to dictate. He’s averaging 85.8 touches per 90 himself, showing just how involved he is in the play.
Now this does leave something of a chasm centrally with a lot of Coventry’s play focused down wide areas. Torp is the sole central midfielder with Rudoni given a very free role to roam.
Grimes isn’t all about possession for possession’s sake however. He’s had the fourth most passes in the division (422) but unlike the three above him he’s also registered 124 of those in the final third showing he can control in dangerous zones.
I mentioned Rudoni there and he’s the only player in this Lampard side who can rival Grimes’ influence. His touches are slightly lower at 64.7 per 90 but he’s more of a carrier, boasting the most carries and the second most progressive carries of any player in the league.
Rudoni’s role involves him dropping into wide pockets, particularly down the right hand side, to create triangles and link up with the full-backs and wingers. On the right flank this is with Van Ewijk and Sakamoto, which is a particularly successful combination.
Van Ewijk has the speed, physicality and intelligence to operate on the touchline or drift into the infield areas, allowing space for both Rudoni and Sakamoto. Sakamoto has the ability to whip crosses from wide areas or drive infield and unleash vicious shots from the edge of the area, making him another dangerous asset.
They can bypass their usual build up methods to pick out these three, with longer switch passes into Rudoni in the right half-spaces also regular
Rudoni will lay the ball off persistently and bust a lung to get into the area. He’s taken the most shots of any player in the division with 3.5 per 90 which replicates just how involved he is, being a monster aerially. These combinations are effective down the left-hand side too with Dasilva and Mason-Clark.
So it’s no surprise that Coventry have sent in the second most crosses of any team, and last season ranked first for crosses into the penalty area.
As a result of their tendencies to work it wide and their ability to retain large chunks of possession they do win their fair share of corners which has been a weak point defensively for Blues. Lampard’s team are well drilled from these scenarios too, boasting the third best set-piece expected goals.
They like to work the ball infield too with Rudoni a real driving force, the wingers looking to drag defenders away to create space, and the midfielders stepping forwards.
When they do deliver the ball into the area they can be really effective with Rudoni, Wright and Mason-Clark or Thomas-Asante all combative in the air. What’s really interesting about their movement is that often Wright drifts into wide left flank spaces, vacating those natural striker areas and leaving the defenders without a man in front of them.
This then allows both him and the left winger to attack from deeper and meet the ball with momentum when the ball is swung in from the right. It also opens up lots of space for Thomas-Asante particularly to move into which creates a good rotation.
Coventry aren’t afraid to get shots off, with three of their players ranking in the top five for shots per game (Rudoni, Wright and Torp). Allsop has been solid in the Blues goal but has boasted a mere 54.5% save percentage – partly due to reasons beyond his control – so he’ll need to be on top form here as it will be a busy afternoon.
Coventry aren’t all about building the ball into wide zones and packing the box. They will look to spring balls over the top with Wright and Mason-Clark always a handful in bending their runs and making those short bursts behind defenders. Klarer and Robinson aren’t the quickest so Osayi-Samuel or Laird will need to be vigilant of those runs and make sure they’re in the right area to cover.
Statistical quirk:
Of all six of Coventry’s matches their expected goals number was the lowest against Leicester City creating just 0.6 xG. The second lowest (1.27) came in their 7-1 win (Yes SEVEN) over QPR with their other four matches all seeing more expected goals generated.
Key players:
- Matt Grimes – the captain’s influence is almost unparalleled in the division, given how involved he is in nearly all phases of play. Stemming his time on the ball will be key.
- Milan Van Ewijk – a superb athlete, he’ll have a big role in nullifying Blues’ left flank (a real outlet for beating the press) but also a key part in creating chances down the right.
- Jack Rudoni – Coventry’s most involved attacker, don’t be surprised to see him pop up here, there and everywhere with a huge license to roam. He has to be picked up when crosses come in.
If you asked neutrals to assess how these two sides have started without looking at the table the reaction would likely be much more positive for Coventry. They’re unbeaten, playing some lovely fluid football and scoring bundles of goals.
But Blues have the same points and have already faced two of the newly relegated teams this season heading into the contest. Davies’ team are in with more than a puncher’s chance at the CBS Arena – against a team from whom they haven’t taken maximum points in the away fixture since 2006.
There will be a barrage to endure at some stage, and we’ll truly see how strong the backline is when it comes. Allsop hasn’t been particularly noticeable so far this season, which in many ways is a good thing, but if he’s to show he can cut it as a good Championship ‘keeper Saturday will likely be the day.
Coventry perhaps haven’t had the slice of luck that Blues have enjoyed up to this point, and I’m wary that may change in the near future. I’m hesitantly going to go with a draw, given Coventry’s performances point to them only getting better than what the table and the results have already shown.
My prediction: Coventry City 2, Blues 2.
