Blues searching for first away points since August.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
No game in the Championship is easy; that goes without saying. However if you’re Chris Davies and you’re in need of a more favourable fixture to get Birmingham City’s away form back on track, a side that have conceded the second most in the division is a pretty good start. The problem for Davies and Blues however, is that side is Wrexham.
Last season’s visit to the Racecourse was one of the toughest 90 minute spells Blues had to endure all campaign. The home side were relentless and so imposing against a team who had generally dictated the terms of almost every league game up until that point. The second-half was an onslaught and Blues were certainly fortunate to come away with a share of the spoils.
The Red Dragons are in many ways still that team. Phil Parkinson (pictured above) is still at the helm – even though many feel his sell by date may be fast approaching – and the hallmarks of the side are still largely similar. What has changed drastically is the personnel.
Having secured three successive promotions it was inevitable that Wrexham would need to undergo some major surgery sooner rather than later. They added 12 permanent players as well as the loan signing of Issa Kabore from Manchester City whilst 21 players that were on the books departed according to Transfermarkt.
So how do they shape up and how may that affect Chris Davies’ team selection come Friday night?
Arthur Okonkwo has reclaimed his spot as the Wrexham goalkeeper following injury to Danny Ward. The back line has also seen plenty of change with Conor Coady and Callum Doyle each losing their places as they battle with a poor defensive record.
George Dobson has established himself as the best of their existing crop of midfielders, whilst new signing Ben Sheaf is proving his worth alongside him. Ryan Longman and Kabore have also displaced James McClean and Ryan Barnett.
The new look forward line of Kieffer Moore, Lewis O’Brien and Josh Windass has begun to gel nicely and Moore recovered from an injury scare to feature on Tuesday. Nathan Broadhead is another option.
For Blues, Davies may elect to add some more height to his team as he did in this fixture in January. Dykes was the goalscorer that day and following a strong aerial performance against Coventry City he could be called upon.
Lewis Koumas’ pace may be useful up against Kabore, whilst Phil Neumann may be the option at right-back given his stature and pace.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession play:
Wrexham’s defensive record has left a lot to be desired, conceding a plethora of goals and by the expected goals metric (xG) they’ve been lucky not to have let in more.
Opposition’s half:
In a week where they’ll face Sheffield Wednesday and Wrexham, Blues may feel like they’re back in League One because, like the Owls, Wrexham are not a very tenacious pressing side.
Their general set up without the ball is a mid-block, preferring to try and squeeze space between the midfield and forwards rather than hound opponents’ backlines.
That’s not to say they don’t look to apply pressure at times, but largely it’s on an individual basis rather than as a unit with one of Windass, Moore or O’Brien stepping onto their marker. They like to block the central channels of progression and instead want to force the ball down a side.
A lot of the time that side is the opposition’s left. Kabore isn’t the most accomplished defender as I’ll come onto but he’s more of a natural defensively-minded player than Longman on the other side, and he also has the explosion of pace to cover distance quickly, either going forwards or backwards.
Wrexham have shifted towards a 5-2-3 set up rather than a 5-3-2 shape, again in a similar vein to Sheffield Wednesday with O’Brien able to complement the two midfielders and the two attackers – just as Svante Ingelsson does.
What this does mean is that in midfield they can be light of bodies. Sheaf and Dobson are both tenacious, dogged midfielders and like to win their individual duels in midfield. They can become overwhelmed however and neither are the most mobile so when opponents do pick it up in those midfield spaces it’s imperative they do win their battle.
Now I’ve said they’re not the biggest pressing team but they do sit eighth for high recoveries so how does that work? Well in my opinion that’s as a result of their tendency to commit lots of bodies forward in attack – as I’ll come on to – meaning they can win turnovers back if they do lose it with numbers around the ball.
Their low passes per defensive action rank (21st) is more accurate in demonstrating how they’ll generally allow teams to play out and look to engage in the second phase of play, which makes the retention and use of the ball of Paik Seung-ho and Tomoki Iwata all the more important in breaking through them.
Own half:
This is where I feel you can really get at Wrexham. Whilst they’re still a fairly tall team I’m not sure they’re as physically imposing as they once were.
They’ve swapped out Eoghan O’Connell and Thomas O’Connor for Dominic Hyam and Lewis Brunt (who was already there) alongside Max Cleworth. Now each have their positives but I’m not convinced they’re very strong in duels. Brunt’s numbers contradict that, but elements of his defensive work do look shoddy whilst the others are prone to being beaten in one v one scenarios.
This does lend itself to the likes of Dykes having lots of success against them or even players like Jay Stansfield or Demarai Gray on the floor, with a plethora of mistimed challenges from them.
What doesn’t help them is that there’s a huge vacuum of space behind the midfield if, as mentioned, the midfielders lose their duels. Brunt is quite proactive at stepping out and reading the game before it occurs but one touch play is often the undoing of them.
Essentially when they defend in transition it ends up becoming a 3-1 shape or 3-2 shape with the wing-backs so easily bypassed. Both Kabore and Longman are not natural defenders and get dragged into the wrong areas, allowing wingers to then draw the wide centre-backs into areas they don’t want to go.
The pace of Koumas and Gray could be really useful in that regard, making those runs wider and facing them up.
What’s also lacking in their deep defending is a bit of authority for me. They seem to have lost that no-nonsense edge they had to their game, with players reluctant to put a foot through the ball and clear their lines when need be.
They’ve allowed the most shots against, xG against and expected threat against showing they’re really struggling to keep teams away from their goal.
Their tracking of runners has also been subpar far too often. That was a theme throughout their draw with Derby County where they gave up plenty of chances from not picking up spare men in and around the box. If Blues can be a bit braver/more intuitive in their box crashing, particularly from midfield, they could reap the rewards.
From a simplistic standpoint they’re not doing the basics well enough, regardless of any structural shortcomings and Blues could capitalise from some pretty simple scenarios.
In possession play:
To counteract their atrocious defensive displays, Wrexham have been pretty competent in an attacking sense. They’ve created their fair share of opportunities and do have some strong individuals, missing the most big chances in the league.
Build up:
In a defensive sense they may be less assertive than they once were but going forwards they’re still just as direct. A lot of their build up play is centred on getting the ball forwards quickly and bypassing the congested midfield areas.
Wrexham have played the second most accurate long balls per match this season and it’s easy to see that in the footage with Moore usually the focal point.
He’s involved in almost everything Parkinson’s side do when building out, dropping in to receive low straight balls through the heart of teams, or offering the aerial outlet that the centre-backs can look for once they’ve encouraged their opponents on.
When Moore does drop in, particularly around the halfway line mark, that poses a question for the Blues centre-backs; to follow or not to follow? If they do drop in they could pinch it off of him and pin Wrexham inside their own territory. If not however it’s not like there’s an abundance of recovery pace in central defence.
Sheaf is the biggest progressor in the Wrexham side but even he isn’t always showing possession deep. A lot of the game plan is centred around playing off of second balls.
They do like to build up down their right flank more than their left, with Windass given license to step deeper and get touches, with Kabore happy to fill the higher right wing space. O’Brien on the opposite flank likes to come infield so that vertical pass from Windass to O’Brien is one to watch out for with the latter drifting away from the Blues right-back.
Chance creation:
40% of Wrexham’s play has come down their right flank, which isn’t that big of a surprise when you consider the influence Ryan Barnett had in that role previously.
Kabore is similar in some ways; a pacey, cross-heavy wing-back who wants to get in behind. He’s a big outlet for them, and is a really frightening prospect when he gets going. Up against Alex Cochrane it could be favourable to have Koumas in the side to be able to support Cochrane with Kabore’s pace.
And logically a lot of their shots (27%) are coming from left-sided locations. This is natural when a lot of your creative/wide play is coming down the right with the players in the box attacking deliveries from the opposite side.
Moore tends to pull onto the opposition’s right centre-back, which luckily for Blues is Christoph Klarer. Moore is still a real handful aerially however so it’s hardly a given that the skipper will win every battle with him.
What Moore’s positioning does allow is O’Brien to make these out-to-in runs across the full-back and centre-back, attacking the space just in front of Moore. That was evident throughout the game vs Derby, and was the source of their goal eventually, with the Rams not picking up on his positioning.
That poses a challenge for either Bright Osayi-Samuel or Neumann as the right-back to pick up the movement early and prevent him getting on the end of those chances.
Another worry is the back post defending where Josh Eccles was so easily able to ghost in for Coventry’s second on Saturday, and where Longman – a winger by trade – is dangerous, being a right footer coming inside. He’ll be a danger from that wide play.
Wrexham aren’t shy in committing bodies forward, packing the box with their opposite wing-back and the front three as well as the midfielders on occasion who generally position themselves on the edge of the area.
That leaves just three defenders back but it does cause havoc in the area and much better organisation than was on display at the CBS Arena will be necessary if Blues are to come away victorious.
Statistical quirk:
Wrexham are yet to win on home turf in a Championship match despite such strong home form last season – winning 16 of their 23 matches.
Key players:
- Max Cleworth – provides an attacking spark from defence with two assists this campaign and 11 contributions last term. He also has a huge role covering Kabore.
- Lewis O’Brien – crucial to the retention and progression of the ball in a Wrexham sense. He brings goal threat too and his movement is key to unlocking space.
- Kieffer Moore – the focal point for Parkinson, everything good for Wrexham usually involves him in multiple phases. Don’t be surprised to see him have a few headed opportunities.
This feels like a big point in the Davies chapter at Birmingham City. Wrexham are a team that caused Blues plenty of problems at the Racecourse in January, and have the capabilities to play on any hesitation in the Blues backline.
What does bode well for Blues is that they may be allowed to play through the hosts often. They’ve struggled to contain better sides this season and a lot of their defensive work relies on the midfielders winning their individual duels. They also turnover the ball often which will aid Blues’ desire for control.
The bottom line is there needs to be more effort and intent in all phases. The players need to do the second, third and fourth actions, not just the first, and support the ball player more. When they do get the ball forwards more of the side need to get into the box and more risk needs to be taken.
This game has a bit of a horrible feel to it. Whether Blues can stand up to that will be interesting. They did well against Ipswich on opening day and I can envisage that type of atmosphere/game state.
I’m usually an optimist but given the failure to look convincing on Tuesday and the seeming mental fragility amongst the current crop – far cry from last season’s resilience – I do fear this could be a really tricky test. I’m not convinced by much I’ve seen over the last week and I think this test may be another occasion where we fail to win.
My prediction: Wrexham 2, Blues 2
