Blues hoping to end three-game winless run.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Of all the teams I’ve watched this season, Hull are one of the sides I’m most intrigued by – mostly because I can’t figure them out. I don’t mean that in the sense that I can’t see what they’re trying to do but I’m struggling to pitch how good they are.
There’s a randomness to their squad, which has been constructed by various managers across the last few windows. There’s equally a randomness to their style which emphasizes an attacking intent but without much desire to have substantial amounts of the ball.
Nevertheless their attacking approach is certainly landing. They’re the league’s third top scorers this campaign, netting a goal in all but two of their games. They’re also shipping plenty of chances at the other end, conceding the second most goals in the league.
So what do Sergej Jakirovic’s Tigers look like and how can Blues neutralise them?
The Hull line-up has seen a fair amount of change with only six players playing eight or more 90s across their first nine league matches.
Captain Charlie Hughes is a mainstay at centre-back with a former Sheffield United spine of John Egan, John Lundstram and Oli McBurnie (pictured above) supporting him. Ryan Giles and Joe Gelhardt have caught the eye whilst they’ve had to chop and change out wide with a growing injury list.
For Blues I’d expect a similar line-up XI to the one at Wrexham. Bright Osayi-Samuel may return and allow Tomoki Iwata back into midfield, whilst Kyogo Furuhashi could replace Lyndon Dykes. Elsewhere I’d expect continuity.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession play:
Alike Wrexham, Hull have given up plenty of chances conceding the same xG against as the Red Dragons. They’re in the red for almost all defensive statistics.
Opposition’s half:
Unlike a lot of teams in the division, Hull aren’t solely wedded to one out of possession approach, deploying something of a hybrid style. They’re statistically the poorest pressing team, winning the least high recoveries and don’t generally tend to squeeze their opponents.
Largely they look to sit in a mid block, with the spaces between the lines minimised to prevent huge gaps in their structure. It’s no surprise that like many sides they set up in a 4-4-2 out of possession shape with Gelhardt pushing alongside McBurnie.
When they do apply pressure to the ball it’s generally one by one with little support for the lead pressuring player. This isn’t very effective and allows them to be bypassed easily, particularly by the better ball-playing teams.
It’s almost like there’s a strong element of autonomy in their approach, with players dictating when they step on and when they drop off. The midfielders are the best example of this, with both Lundstram and Regan Slater tending to get tight to their markers.
This does allow for them to be dragged out of position and, in turn, forces the centre-backs to step out too which can leave them vulnerable and short of numbers at the back. They also struggle to cope with players peeling into the pocket areas either side of the midfield two in the 4-4-2, with the full-backs not sure who to pick up.
Their rest defence structure (the players who remain back whilst they attack) is baffling. Quite frankly it’s a mess, with different players being left back at different times, the centre-backs swapping sides within games and huge gaps being left between the two centre-backs allowing for them to be caught out transitionally really quickly.
They aren’t blessed with tonnes of speed at full-back or in midfield so Hughes is generally the most athletic defender at covering ground, but they do open themselves up consistently with such a lack of a stable safeguarding structure.
Blues will be able to enjoy long spells of possession with Hull poor at both retaining and regaining the ball. Playing through the lines could be hugely beneficial here and the bravery displayed when playing forwards in the second-half against Wrexham could go some way to doing so.
Own half:
This is where Hull spend a lot of time in matches, given they boast one of the lowest possession shares. Their in possession approach leans into this, seeking to be direct and minimise the time it takes them to get from back to front.
It’s a real problem area of their game, often unable to relieve spells of pressure. Against Southampton and Sheffield United they had just 29% and 38% of the ball respectively and whilst they won those games they did face huge challenges.
The number of shots they’re allowing in their box is a big worry. 69.7% of their shots against have come in their penalty area, but Blues have faced 77% of their shots in the 18-yard box so what’s the big deal? Well Hull have conceded twice as many shots as Blues so the volume of those high quality chances is much greater.
If you give good players those opportunities time and time again, you will be punished. For me that could make it the perfect game for Kyogo, as with the likelihood that chances will come regularly (if Blues can create them) he may feel a freedom that he hasn’t had in other games which could take the pressure away.
They’ve been hugely vulnerable when it comes to runners in between the centre-backs with often neither taking charge. This is also the case in full-back areas and largely I think their failure to deal with runners comes from their tendency to drop deep.
When they sink into a low block inside their own box, their defensive players are settled in their zones but are generally defending from standing positions whereas opponents can arrive late, generate momentum and use that to gain a better leap on them.
I’ve been critical of Blues’ willingness to commit runners into the box so far, but if they do so it could bear fruit.
The right-back area has been an interesting one with either Lewie Coyle or Cody Drameh deployed there. Both have tended to step out with cracks in their midfield structure, but this does open the door for a wide runner down the left to drift into space. Watch out for those out-to-in runs from Demarai Gray.
In possession work:
Lots of Hull’s in possession numbers don’t make for great reading but they’ve consistently been able to turn their share of the ball into goals, netting two or more on five occasions.
Build up:
In some ways contradictory to the title of this section, but Hull don’t often prioritise build up.
A lot of their game plan – demonstrated by their low possession share – is aimed at being effective and efficient with their ball usage so getting the ball forwards at pace is a priority.
McBurnie is a huge focal point and not only can he compete aerially, winning 30 aerial duels already this campaign, but he’s a hound and can chase and challenge defenders. Gelhardt can do that side of the game too which allows them to play for second and third phases of long balls.
From the back their build up isn’t perfect. They want to play out at times, and the centre-backs often shape up that way but the trust between the pair of CBs and goalkeeper Ivor Pandur isn’t perfect.
Pandur tends to go for safety first, favouring a long ball under pressure, and against Preston, Hughes was hugely animated following one of those instances.
Lundstram loves to drop in between the centre-backs and looks to spray passes out wide, particularly to the right-hand side with the right-back pushing beyond the winger. That positioning does pose its own issues with the winger often without a safety net player to play back to if needs be.
Hughes is an equally effective long passer of the ball so he’s another that can spray a switch from deep.
A lot of their retention issues come from the fact they turn the ball over plenty in central areas. Their midfielders aren’t consistently able to receive, absorb pressure and play forwards without giving the ball away and that’s a big weakness at this level especially given how well-drilled Blues are out of possession.
My biggest sticking point with them is that when Lundstram comes deep, and the full-backs look to get ahead of the ball into high areas, they’re then left with only Slater in central areas and make it fairly simple for teams to negate their central build up.
This forces them wide, and given the amount of starting winger options they’ve been forced to utilise this season (seven) they’ve understandably not got the wide chemistry to ensure their wide play is a seamless way of working upfield.
Chance creation:
That feels like a pretty damning assessment of a team who’ve beaten a couple of the pre-season promotion favourites, held the league leaders and scored the third most goals in the division.
But here’s where Hull show their ability. I still don’t quite understand how they’re so effective in the final third given there’s so many holes in other elements of their game, but Hull are a good attacking team.
They boast the third best expected goals, the third best expected threat and the second best non penalty expected goals per shot. All very good.
Some of this comes from their role as a disruptive team, drawing on a lot of pressure but then aiming to transition quickly with long balls and wide runners. If they get it right then they’re often left in 3v3 or 4v3 situations, which means the quality of chances they do get are high quality.
When they demonstrate the right composure in these moments they score goals, and it’s clear to see why with a host of good finishers amongst their ranks.
Their directness comes from wide areas where as I mentioned a lot of their build up goes. They’ve registered the most successful crosses of any team in the division and they have the quality to make sure they really harm teams.
Giles has a wand of a left foot and has registered more successful crosses and more expected assists than any other player in the league. Drameh also has the odd lovely cross in his locker as Blues fans know from his time at St. Andrew’s.
Then you’ve got their bravery in committing players forward, which partly leads to their weak rest defence.
Lundstram has got himself on the scoresheet this season and his goals against Southampton was a perfect example of the rewards you can enjoy from gambling on getting in the box – take notes Iwata and Paik Seung-ho.
You’ve also got the fact that McBurnie is in electric form. He’s bagged six goals this season and boast the second highest conversion rate of any player with 10+ shots this season and with the type of forward he is it could be a tough afternoon for Christoph Klarer and Jack Robinson.
Chris Davies needs his players to a) stand up to their physical battles well and b) regain the ball quickly to stop Giles and co getting into areas where they can threaten.
I’m unsure on the fitness of their other forward players but the likes of Joel Ndala, David Akintola and Kyle Joseph each being their own dangers.
The good news for Blues is that Hull have created the least expected goals from set pieces this campaign but with the height in their side that can always change.
Statistical quirk:
Hull rank bottom of the league for field tilt (which measures the passes a team makes in the final third as a percentage of the total final third passes in a match) which highlights how little they enjoy spells of retained possession in attacking areas.
Key players:
- Charlie Hughes – the captain will need to be a real organiser at St. Andrew’s. He needs to ensure the defensive unit are on the same page in attacking and defensive phases.
- Ryan Giles – the Tigers’ biggest creative outlet, his freedom to get forwards and his relationship with McBurnie will be key if they’re to get anything from the game.
- Oli McBurnie – nothing short of electric at the moment, the Scotsman is a handful and a sharpshooter.
This is the kind of game where I want Blues and Davies to stamp their mark on this Championship season. Hull are a team with dangerous elements but largely plenty of flaws in their game.
They struggle to retain the ball, struggle to play through the lines consistently and have frailties defensively all of which would have been music to the ears of the Blues boss last season.
Hull can handle themselves going forwards, and that’s a worry given there’s a bit of hesitancy amongst the Blues defence lately however I want to see the hosts take charge of the match, stamp their authority and win this to nil.
That may be ambitious against a team who have packed a punch so far, but if Blues are to shoot up the league then defensive solidity will be the base. Starting to reassert that game management and chance management needs to come sooner or later.
My prediction: Blues 1, Hull City 0.
