Can Blues hand Lions a first away defeat?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
When it was announced Tony Mowbray wouldn’t be returning to Birmingham City, one of the names linked with the vacancy was Alex Neil. The 44-year-old’s stock was at an interesting stage, with premature exits from Sunderland and Stoke City casting question marks over his true capabilities.
However those questions have firmly been answered, nearly a year into his Millwall reign. Only Frank Lampard’s Coventry City have taken more points than Millwall since he took charge on the penultimate day of 2024 (albeit Leeds United and Burnley are no longer in the division).
Neil has built upon the robust foundation Neil Harris had laid in Bermondsey whilst providing a platform for more forward-thinking players to thrive, particularly Mihailo Ivanovic who has scored 12 of his 14 Millwall goals during Neil’s tenure.
The results are there for all to see this season, with Millwall currently sitting in fourth place in the league. Now some may say it’s too early to use the table as a real yardstick but their form is brilliant with four wins and a draw in succession. They’re yet to lose away from the Den with three wins and three draws on the road.
So heading to St. Andrew’s – a ground where the Lions have not tasted defeat in any of their last eight visits – they’ll be confident they can punish a Blues side who are still trying to strike a consistent winning formula.
So how may the teams line-up come Tuesday evening?
Millwall have found a consistent base which has been key to their success. Tristan Crama is a superb defender for this level and frankly has the capabilities to go far beyond the Den in his career, whilst Jake Cooper is a perfect towering partner.
Casper de Norre has been fantastic in midfield recently whilst Femi Azeez and Thierno Ballo have added X factor in wide areas, though the former is likely to be out after suffering an injury. Stand-in goalkeeper Max Crocombe has kept two clean sheets in his last three games.
For Blues you’d imagine the same side is the only solution, off the back of a crushing 4-0 win over Portsmouth. Marvin Ducksch was a key cog on his return and should continue if his fitness allows it.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Millwall are comfortable out of possession, spending more than half of the game without the ball on average (average possession 46.7%).
Opposition’s half:
Millwall are one of the most energetic and hardest working teams in the league. Neil’s mark on the team is clear to see, with the side regularly hounding their opponents and forcing mistakes.
Millwall have forced the most ‘high turnovers’ of any side in the division and unlike teams like Bristol City, who are very aggressive in the first phase but then sink into a low, passive approach, Millwall remain aggressive in nearly all phases.
The shape is slightly different to other sides in the league, though it’s nothing revolutionary. It’s largely a 4-4-2 without the ball with either the number 10 or the second striker joining Ivanovic in the first line of the press – Millwall have flexed between a 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 shape depending on personnel.
There are some adjustments to their set up however which helps them squeeze their opposition. One of the midfielders stays very close to the forwards, closing off the pivot player who would usually be shadow blocked by a forward player (essentially when a striker cuts off a passing lane into a midfielder which nullifies them).
In order to reduce the likelihood of the team finding a workaround pass into their midfielder and then breaking out of the press, Millwall commit the extra man to be more tactile. This also allows the strikers to have more freedom in closing down, not always having to think about the angle they press at and covering off the passing lane.
This can lead to the shape looking a bit more like a 4-1-3-2 without the ball but the role of the wingers is also important in safeguarding against spaces centrally. The wingers occupy the space between the full-back and the closest midfielder to them, meaning they’re able to close down either if the ball is played to them.
This means that likely the ball is played to the full-back and the whole Millwall side have the game in front of them or that they can make a fast interception with several players in close quarters.
The spaces between players are super important to this set up. If they allow long sweeping passes through the lines they can be caught, with the singular pivot left to protect the backline whilst the full-backs are equally encouraged to be aggressive.
The short distances between each player allow Millwall to have a hands-on, team-led press and it also reduces the chance that an individual losing their duel leads to the whole press being bypassed as there are others close by to support and cover.
With Blues equally a high pressing, energetic side you can expect a fast pace to this one. Millwall have seen the third lowest percentage of high turnovers ending in a shot, so perhaps they need to add more urgency when they do win it back.
The likes of Tomoki Iwata and Phil Neumann could prove worries in this one with both looking somewhat limited at progressing the ball under pressure down the right.
Own half:
Now I did say Millwall don’t become passive in their own half and that rings true. It doesn’t mean however that they don’t spend periods camped inside their own territory.
Again on the basis that they’re an incredibly hard working side, they’ve often got nearly every player behind the ball. The wingers are tireless and tasked with getting back to help out their full-back at speed.
Don’t be surprised to see scenarios where there are nine or 10 Millwall players in and around the visitors’ box. However they aren’t simply sitting in and waiting to head away deliveries.
The outer players each look to put the opposition under pressure and charge out of the area to do so. They’re super effective as a side at forcing their opponents back and relieving scenarios where they’re under the cosh.
They’re one of the best team at defending their box, with whoever is in goal making the fifth least saves across the division. They’re fairly middling for shots and xG against, but they back themselves to have the quality to come out on the right side of fine margins.
10 of their matches across all competitions have been draws or wins decided by a goal or less, so there is some element of fortune with both their attacking and defensive play.
The emphasis will be on Blues to carve out opportunities and the likes of Marvin Ducksch, Patrick Roberts and other players amongst the midfield ranks will be key to doing so.
In possession play:
Millwall have the third best field tilt adjusted for possession ranking in the league – essentially measuring how effective teams are at having a high percentage of their touches in their opponent’s third – so how do they do it?
Build up:
Millwall’s build up in truth is quite traditional Millwally. Not to stereotype them as that would be lazy but they do like to get it forward quickly, and they’re not afraid to do that with a good, old- fashioned long ball.
Millwall have played the fourth most long balls and there’s no shame in that. Ivanovic is a really able target to aim for, with a physical frame that allows him to tussle with defenders but also the mobility to chase balls into the channel.
You’ll often see when Neil’s side are building up down the flanks that the wingers will elect to tuck inside rather than hug the touchline, leaving the space for a curled ball down the line into an area Ivanovic can burst onto it instead.
A lot of their build up begins from defending deep, with the second most clearances in the league. As such you need a forward (Ivanovic) and wingers who are capable of making up ground incredibly quickly. That’s exactly what they’ve got, with strong recruitment that is tailored to the style.
The midfielders they do have are competent in possession. I like Billy Mitchell who’s a livewire and always busy, whilst de Norre can be fairly press resistant. That said they’ve played the fifth fewest short passes so expect to see a high-paced encounter.
They’ve given up the fewest high turnovers as a team and that’s clear in the footage. They don’t take many risks and are looking to get it into the better players rather than dwelling on possession at the back.
They do also tend to use a switch out towards the right flank, particularly from Cooper but it can be cut out at points to leave them short.
Chance creation:
Millwall are pretty middling for their attacking ranks; again they’re a low margin team but their strength lies in the fact they’re pitching in the top half for most attacking and defensive metrics rather than being all or nothing.
Azeez and Ballo have been big sources of creativity in recent weeks. Each has the ability to take their man on and carry the ball but equally their speed off of the ball is frightening so they can be better leaving the build up to other sources and instead getting further forwards.
Azeez’s injury is a big blow for Neil’s side given his form lately, and it’s a big job for Camiel Neghli to replace him. That said, the Algerian has a bag of tricks in his locker and is a more than capable wide option in his own right whilst Aidomo Emakhu and Raees Bangura-Williams can both be turned to by Neil.
I mentioned Ivanovic likes to run the channels but the attacking midfielder also supports Azeez down the right by making movements across the channel between the full-back and the centre-back.
Both the attacking midfielder and Ivanovic do this to each of the centre-backs which drags them further apart and can leave a pocket of space between them for a deeper player to ghost into. Tommy Doyle will need to be wary of this, and Iwata needs to tuck in to stop this space being created.
Millwall’s full-backs are quite traditional in the sense they look to get round their winger and provide an alternative crossing option so the home side’s wingers getting back quickly will be key.
They’ve scored the most goals from counter attacks away from home in the league as well as the fourth most away set piece goals whereas open play goals are fairly low so a lot of their threat comes in short bursts. Blues may get on top in the game but the away side will always pack a punch.
Pace in behind is a worry with all of their attacking players capable of winning a foot race. If Ivanovic can find his shooting boosts and start to perform closer to his xG then he could be a big danger.
From set plays Cooper is the obvious danger, standing at 6”4 and having 2.85 touches in the opposition’s box per game this season and showing his clinical edge last Saturday.. He’ll be a big target with other players like Crama and Ivanovic equally capable of causing damage.
Statistical quirk:
As of Friday, Millwall are the only top seven side not to rank inside the top seven for fewest goals conceded, yet only Coventry (six) have kept more clean sheets than their five.
Key players:
- Tristan Crama – a defender who is extremely talented, he’s dominant and nasty at times. A tough opponent for Stansfield.
- Thierno Ballo – the winger has had a strong start to life in England with a stream of involvements. He’s tricky and explosive and will cause Iwata issues.
- Mihailo Ivanovic – whilst he hasn’t hit the same heights in front of goal, Ivanovic is such a handful and a key cog for the team.
This is another really difficult test for Chris Davies’ side and one that comes in the aftermath of such a huge win on Saturday. That was a massive result but it needs to be the start of a run and that momentum needs to be gathered here.
Millwall will have their tails up despite the late equaliser they conceded on Saturday, and are now unbeaten in their last five games. They’re growing in confidence, though the loss of Azeez will be a blow.
Their St. Andrew’s record is remarkable but that doesn’t seem to be much to judge off of this season, with Blues losing at Stoke – a ground where they’d won their last two trips – whereas Davies’ side won at Ewood Park – where they were 10 attempts without a win.
It feels a pivotal week for Davies and the trajectory of this season in B9. A trip to the Riverside on Saturday looks incredibly tough so picking up points against the Lions feels necessary.
I could see goals in this one, with Blues fairly leaky at the back lately and having to make sacrifices defensively to add more creative influence. As such I’m going to punt for a point, which objectively would be a great point against a side who will be in and around the play-off picture come May.
My prediction: Blues 2, Millwall 2.
