Can Blues topple the league leaders and lay down a marker?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Of all the performances this season, the 3-0 defeat at the CBS Arena was probably the poorest. Blues folded like a deck chair against the Sky Blues, as a dismal first-half continually went from bad to worse.
In some ways there’s no shame in losing to the best side in the division – at least so far – but it felt like a particularly damp squib following lacklustre away performances at Leicester City and Stoke City prior.
A lot can change in 18 games – just ask Jack Robinson. Plenty would argue Blues have changed for worse, and any positivity from a tweaked tactical display against Southampton was undone by a 3-0 against Watford on New Year’s Day.
Coventry City have endured a sticky patch themselves, and will be desperate to prove they can come out the other side of it as nearly all title winning sides must. Only Hull City have won at St. Andrew’s this season, so it won’t be easy for the Sky Blues by any means.
So how will the teams shape up?
Coventry have chopped and changed both personnel and system in search of consistency but I’d assume they’ll return to their 4-2-3-1 shape against Blues.
Jay Dasilva returns from suspension whilst Ephron Mason-Clark and Jack Rudoni should also return to the starting side. Ellis Simms may lead the line over Haji Wright.
For Blues Tommy Doyle feels almost certain to retake his place in midfield with Tomoki Iwata pushed back to right-back. Jay Stansfield may also return to selection if he can overcome a leg injury.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Only three sides have conceded fewer goals than Coventry’s 26 yet they’re without an away clean sheet in their last five matches.
Opposition’s half:
Despite leading the league for almost every metric, Coventry are just the 10th best side when it comes to high turnovers.
When they go with a 4-2-3-1 formation – which becomes a 4-4-2 shape without the ball – they can become fairly easy to cut through.
Rudoni as the attacking midfielder joins the striker up front and marshalls the opposition’s left side of defence – a key area for Blues. At times the shape can look like a 5-2-3 with Rudoni covering the wide right space as Tatsuhiro Sakamoto drops deeper to support the backline.
Rudoni and the striker are fairly passive against better ball playing teams, allowing them to settle in possession from open play and instead back in themselves to defend well deeper.
Victor Torp usually sits just behind the two forwards when they do press but when there are multiple defensive midfielders to press this can become an issue. Often that first pass into a midfielder is too easy.
Coventry use more of a structural off the ball approach rather than a man-to-man one which does mean that opposition players can drift into pockets of space.
From goal kicks they are more aggressive, seeking to force turnovers from the opponents in a controlled phase. That could be an issue at St. Andrew’s with plenty of sharp, athletic forward players for the Sky Blues and an absence of quick-thinking, ball-playing defenders in the Blues defence.
Own half:
In deeper play, Coventry work extremely hard. Their players get back as a unit, and their wide players really do support their full-backs.
When they commit their left-back to applying pressure down the left flank, Matt Grimes is able to tuck in and fill the gap but that can open up space in central areas with just a midfield two. Blues’ three man approach in the centre of the park could cause them issues.
It’s also an area where the strikers can receive. Torp gets pulled out to support Milan Van Ewijk and Rudoni and that opens up a corridor for whoever leads the Blues line to show for it. Marvin Ducksch and Kyogo Furuhashi have struggled to link play lately but they may have more success here.
There’s also the potential for space to open up to the side of Grimes when Torp is dragged to the right and the opposition then move it quickly. Iwata as an inverting right-back could help Blues play through the lines.
Fascinatingly, Coventry adopt a really narrow backline when they’re defending their box. The spaces across the back four are small – almost as if they were playing with four centre-halves.
That limits the possibilities for Stansfield and others to ghost in at the back post so picking up the scraps on the edge of the box will be key.
In possession work:
Coventry have scored 14 more goals than any other team in the division.
Build up:
Coventry rely on Grimes to progress the ball for them in short build up – something he’s excellent at.
He drops in and allows Torp and Rudoni to cover the central space, whilst the full-backs push wide to stretch the pitch.
They do favour building up down the flanks with plenty of players in close proximity – Wright, Mason-Clark and the left-back can combine down the left whilst Rudoni drifts to the right to support Van Ewijk and Sakamoto.
Grimes sitting deep allows them to retain a back three structure defensively whilst pushing the full-backs on. If they do lose it however then they can struggle in wide areas where more mobile strikers can drag the centre-backs into wide areas.
They do have players that can carry the ball and that could be a real problem, as Watford repeatedly strode past a fairly immobile Blues team.
Chance creation:
Not only have Coventry scored more goals than any other team but they’ve also had extremely varied methods of chance creation.
Their off the ball running and commitment to flooding the box with numbers has seen them net more open play goals than any other side in the division as well as registering the most passes into the box per possession.
Their possession is always purposeful and a lot of their build up in wide areas continues into the final third, then having players attacking the blindside of defenders by infiltrating the box from the far side.
Rudoni is an excellent aerial operator and popped up with 10 goals last season – though this campaign they’ve shared the load around the squad.
From set plays their quality of delivery from corners, free-kicks and even long throws has resulted in them netting the most set piece goals in the division. They’re a side who combine plenty of stature with their technical prowess.
They have plenty of off the ball runners as well as players that want to take the ball to feet and that shows in the fact their direct speed of attack is only bettered by three teams.
They’ll pose Blues issues if Iwata overcommits in possession with Mason-Clark ready to pick his pocket whilst Simms could be the physical lynchpin they need to ruffle the feathers of Phil Neumann and Robinson.
Statistical quirk:
Coventry forwards Thomas-Asante, Simms and Wright have netted 16 away goals between them in all competitions – double the amount Blues have mustered up on the road.
Key players:
- Carl Rushworth – a keeper I’m a huge fan of, Rushworth has been producing plenty of key saves in recent weeks.
- Victor Torp – important to their work off the ball, Torp adds needed physicality in midfield to support Grimes.
- Jack Rudoni – missing for the first clash, Rudoni is a top operator at this level and could re-spark his season into life any time.
By their standards these two sides are in poor form heading into this one, but only one are still picking up results consistently.
Coventry are enduring their fair share of issues right now and heading into a fired up St. Andrew’s there’s always the potential Blues could pull off one of those electric performances. But the atmosphere could very quickly turn toxic.
It feels like a result is of paramount importance. A defeat in bad fashion could spark ugly scenes in B9, especially against Coventry. They are the league leaders so a point would be a good result in my books.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Coventry City 2.
