Blues begin their FA Cup campaign with a trip to the Abbey Stadium.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Nine months ago, Birmingham City closed out their short but sweet stint in League One with a 2-1 victory over Cambridge United. A joyous afternoon at a ground Blues hadn’t visited for three decades summed up the season for Chris Davies and his team.
For the U’s, they once more found themselves on the wrong side of a narrow scoreline – again symptomatic of their campaign. However there’s renewed optimism at the Abbey Stadium this season and Cambridge head into this clash full of confidence.
Neil Harris has stamped his mark on the club and picked up plenty of results along the way. Their only defeat across their last 14 games in all competitions was a penalties loss to Bristol Rovers and they even managed to dispatch League One promotion hopefuls Stockport County in the previous round.
The game comes at the end of a relentless Christmas period and Harris will be hopeful the extra few days break his team have enjoyed will provide Cambridge with a slight advantage.
So how strong will the two line-ups look for the match?
Cambridge have shown a willingness to take cup competitions seriously already this campaign, fielding a competitive team against Stockport in the previous round as well as winning twice in the EFL Cup before being beaten by Fulham.
They’ve largely deployed a 3-4-2-1 shape despite changes in personnel. The fitness of loanee Adam Mayor is up in the air after he was withdrawn against Chesterfield but the majority of the squad are available.
For Blues it seems a good opportunity to get more minutes in left-back Kai Wagner’s legs, whilst Ryan Allsop will almost certainly get the nod in goal. Keshi Anderson, Kyogo Furuhashi and Willum Willumsson could all get the chance to build some confidence against the U’s.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Cambridge’s defensive solidity has been the foundation of their success this season.
Opposition’s half:
Despite not ranking relatively highly for tackles, Cambridge have registered the sixth most recoveries in the opposition’s third and the sixth most interceptions.
There is plenty of energy amongst their usual frontline with Louis Appéré flanked by Sullay Kaikai and Ben Knight, whilst backup forwards Shayne Lavery and Elias Kachunga may step in.
The shape they use does make me think that they may choose to stand off Blues more in high phases, with Davies’ team possessing the quality to cut them open. With a 3-4-2-1 shape, the three forwards can become isolated from the rest of the team.
Harris has at times committed one of the midfielders, usually youngster George Hoddle, to support the forwards but this runs the risk of vacating plenty of space in midfield and I’m sure they won’t commit to a full man-to-man approach.
As such they may be better placed to be more passive in the first phase and allow Blues to build out to a point.
With just two midfielders in the centre of the park, and those midfielders often coming wide to support the wing-backs out of possession whilst Knight and Kaikai block off central passing lanes, there can be opportunities for opponents to dominate possession.
The three centre-backs can be reluctant to follow players deep and as such an attacking midfielder (likely Willumsson) could pick up pockets around the midfielders and allow Blues to play through the thirds.
Own half:
When opponents work the ball into more threatening areas, Cambridge are excellent at limiting the quality of chance they face.
They’re a really well-drilled outfit and their focus on structural defending is paying dividends. Cambridge have conceded the joint fewest goals in the league and have kept nine clean sheets this campaign.
They’re a compact unit with the forwards getting back to support the backline. The forward players also have an important role in relieving pressure by making runs into space for a long ball or by carrying it themselves – which Kaikai and Knight can do well.
They’ve allowed the fewest percentage of shots inside their own box and you can see why with so many players in and around the box.
They’re happy to deal with any kind of aerial assault and given Lyndon Dykes was not included in the matchday 20 against Coventry City, it’s tough to see Blues causing many problems from crosses or set plays where Cambridge’s defensive numbers are fantastic.
As I touched on above, the midfielders get wide to support the wing-backs which limits the possibility of them getting beaten 1v1 and leaving big spaces.
In four of their last six they’ve conceded two or fewer shots on target from inside the box so it won’t be easy for Blues. First choice goalkeeper Jake Eastwood (who started the previous round) has also been impressive, preventing the second most goals in League Two.
In possession work:
Cambridge have mustered up the fewest goals in the top half of League Two (28) despite sitting sixth.
Build up:
Harris is a pragmatic manager and isn’t especially focused on his side inviting unnecessary pressure. They’ve been more than happy to be more direct when needed and I can’t imagine against Blues they’ll try to play out from goal kicks.
They instead look to win their duels, leaving five players on the last line with the wing-backs flanking the three forwards and getting the midfielders in close proximity.
It’s a risk vs reward tactic in itself though, either allowing them to gain possession inside the opposition’s half or turning over the ball with plenty of Amber shirts forward and therefore offering Blues the chance to gain territory quickly. Christoph Klarer’s return could be important to winning these duels.
The spacing of players is an interesting aspect in their play, with big gaps between key cogs in their build up. With just two midfielders, they have lots of space to cover and therefore players can become isolated with the ball.
This encourages players to problem solve themselves but with a lower technical quality, loose touches and poor decision making can run them into trouble and in the game I watched against MK Dons there were numerous examples of this – including the hosts’ first goal.
They can play longer into the forwards who are frequently trying to get beyond the backline, and Appéré particularly likes to make runs into the channels between the centre-backs and full-backs.
Chance creation:
There isn’t always a plethora of goalscoring opportunities in Cambridge’s matches, often relying on a low margin contest to get them points.
They’ve had two or fewer shots on target inside the opposition’s box in four of their last five games, yet they’ve consistently carved out chances from near enough on the goal line.
That’s an interesting quirk, with chances coming from both set pieces and regular play but does show that they’re able to commit bodies deep into opposition territory.
Their willingness to flood the area caught my eye, with wing-backs and midfielders getting into the 18-yard box for crosses, whilst the wide centre-backs sometimes drift forward to help get deliveries in for these shirts.
As always that runs some risk of being countered but it can also cause confusion in the area and perhaps leads to those chances close to goal with players unmarked.
Individual running has also been important for them, especially when driving them upfield from their relatively deep defensive position. Knight has been excellent whilst Kaikai has the trickery to draw men towards him and if they get going it could be tough for Blues to stop them.
Plenty of away sides have caused Davies’ team issues by allowing them to come onto them and then hitting them on the break and with Wagner also being given license to get forwards, the Blues rest defence could get even weaker.
Brophy and Knight are the kinds of players who can create chances from nothing, with the former creating more big chances than any other player in League Two.
Statistical quirk:
Despite conceding the joint fewest goals in the division, Cambridge have made the least tackles in the division – 25 fewer than any other team.
Key players:
- Mamadou Jobe – providing speed and power at the base of defence, Jobe allows Cambridge to commit men forward.
- James Brophy – a versatile player who adds bags of creativity whether in forward or wide areas, Brophy is a source of inspiration for the U’s.
- Ben Knight – a player that’s caught my eye, Knight brings the cutting edge that a low margin side like Cambridge need to grab results.
Cambridge will back themselves to cause an upset here if the game goes ahead. Blues have a depleted squad and plenty of moving parts with the January window underway, whilst the U’s know exactly what they’re about.
Harris has a way of consistently thwarting Blues teams, picking up five wins across eight matches – his joint most victories against any opposition. That said there is a substantial quality gap, as there was last season.
The likes of Anderson (if fit) and Willumsson may have struggled to cut it at Championship level but both could show their class in this contest. Kyogo Furuhashi will equally be hoping he can rediscover his goalscoring touch.
The win against Coventry showed there is plenty of spirit in this Blues team and dispatching of League Two opposition could be the start of correcting the dismal away form.
My prediction: Cambridge United 1, Birmingham City 2.
