Blues hoping for successive home wins in penultimate St. Andrew’s game.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
When Birmingham City clung onto a backs against the wall win at Deepdale in October, many hoped it would be the change in away fortunes that Chris Davies’ side desperately required.
It wasn’t to be this campaign but Blues do have the chance to rescue a smidge of pride in the closing weeks of this season. A win over Wrexham was followed up with a battling point away at Hull City, concluding a positive week.
So with three games to go, two of which are on home turf, can Davies stake his claim to a third season in the St. Andrew’s dugout, and can a number of players prove they’re worthy of remaining in the Second City?
Paul Heckingbottom has stuck to his 5-3-2 shape throughout the campaign, and large parts of the side have been consistent. Captain Ben Whitman is a stalwart in midfield but went off injured against West Bromwich Albion in the 2-0 defeat at home.
Aston Villa loanee Lewis Dobbin will be hoping for an equally strong finish to a stellar campaign whilst Tottenham’s Alfie Devine is also important. The wing-back areas are where there’s more room to manoeuvre.
Davies may yet choose the same team that’s begun games against Wrexham and Hull, yet Paik Seung-ho feels primed for a return whilst Bright Osayi-Samuel picked up a knock against the Tigers.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Preston have conceded 55 goals this campaign, the 13th most.
Opposition’s half:
When most Championship fans envisage Preston North End, they probably depict a hard to beat side, who are compact in their shape and limit chances for opponents.
Now some of those elements ring true. Preston are certainly hard to beat – only six teams have lost fewer matches – and they’re compact for large parts of the game. But restricting chances is not their forte.
In their attempts to be compact, they’re not the most committed pressing team. Largely they sit off in a bank of five and a bank of three with the two forward players much higher, chasing down defenders.
They apply the bulk of the pressure but the wing-backs can be given license to press the opposition full-backs too.
In midfield areas, the likes of Whitman and Devine have a great knack for sniffing out opportunities to pounce on opposition players. They’re not constantly applying pressure but they know when to step in.
Preston are confident at shifting to a back four in moments. They give their defenders license to be aggressive and step out, whether that’s a wing-back pressing or a centre-back following a forward.
Own half:
In deeper play, Preston are the compact unit you’d expect. They sit in a tight formation and pack their box with plenty of players, looking to restrict the eventual space their opponents have.
It’s why despite the fact they’ve conceded so many shots, the fourth most in the league and the fifth most shots on target, they’ve faced the third lowest percentage of shots inside the box.
They’ve also faced the most set piece shots which is no surprise given the fact they’re looking to block and clear balls deep inside their own territory, as well as the fact they’re happy to commit infringements regularly.
Where they can become exposed is when they push their wing-backs high, either in possession or out of possession, and then get caught on the break quickly as the wide centre-backs aren’t the most mobile.
Often when they do defend deep and opponents commit their full-backs high and wide, they’re pinned with a five vs five on the backline. That leaves room for midfield runners to cause them issues especially as the midfielders are often concerned with covering zones rather than specific players.
In possession work:
North End have averaged just 45.7% of the ball this season.
Build up:
Preston aren’t one of the more progressive teams in the league, but they do try and play at times.
Largely they’re looking to be more vertical but they do play out with a 3-1 set up. The centre-backs are across the backline whilst the wing-backs are pushed on, and Whiteman (or whoever replaces him) sits in front.
The centre-backs can’t be too wide as when they are they cause themselves issues, messing up the distances and giving away passes in dangerous areas. Daniel Iversen is equally not the greatest goalkeeper with his feet.
When I watch North End, a lot of their aim is to play centrally. They want to get Whiteman on the ball, and he likes to feed Dobbin and Devine in central areas rather than playing it wide. However with a good central block, they can be forced into the wide areas.
They do like to play long and bank on seconds balls. It’s one of the reasons why they rank so poorly for accurate long balls as often they’re not looking for a target but they’re trying to gain territory.
Both Thierry Small and Andrija Vukcevic rank in the league’s top two for average carry distance, highlighting how they rely on individuals to get them up the pitch from their deep defensive position.
Chance creation:
North End have struggled for chances, despite their middling goal tally. Their expected goals rank is the fourth worst in the division, and no player has hit double figures for them this season.
Understandably, a lot of their threat comes from set pieces, having the fifth highest percentage of their total shots from dead ball situations.
They are most impactful in transition. They’ve racked up the most fast break goals and the second most direct attacks, largely because they look to play vertically.
Dobbin is so effective at picking up loose balls whilst Devine and Andrew Moran are both box crashing midfielders. They’re quite a tight unit centrally, minimising distances between them and therefore they can combine quickly.
A lot of their central, more meticulous play is stifled. Whiteman is their most creative operator in terms of through balls and he’s playing from deep so they aren’t very good breaking down more compact teams.
Crosses are more of an avenue, so getting the ball wide ends up happening often and both Small and Vukcevic rank in the league’s top 10 for successful crosses, so Phil Neumann and Christoph Klarer need to be strong.
Statistical quirk:
No team has hit the post fewer times than the Lilywhites (5).
Key players:
- Ben Whiteman* – the lynchpin of the team, Whiteman is a shrew operator at the level.
- Alfie Devine – the loanee has had a great spell in Lancashire and offers bags of threat.
- Lewis Dobbin – as a Villa loanee he feels primed to hurt Blues, and he’s racked up 16 contributions already this season.
*possible injury.
Preston have refound their feet in recent weeks despite having a wobble. They’ve picked up four? results in their last five and have reasserted themselves in the mid-table pack.
That said, they’ve been sub-par since the turn of the year and always feel like a side that teams can beat. Blues should be able to dictate proceedings but Preston’s unwillingness to dominate the ball may make things interesting.
I think there may be too much quality in the Blues ranks going forwards and I can see a victory. Perhaps even a goal for August Priske.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Preston North End 1.
