Can Blues cause another twist in the play-off race?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Back in August, if you told anybody associated with Birmingham City that they’d have a big hand in the play-off race come the final four games, everybody would have taken it. It’s not quite what everyone had in mind, but there is still a part to play in the Championship season.
Sunday’s win over Wrexham was a welcome breather after a tough few weeks in the Second City. It seemed to all but end the visitors hopes of crashing the top six guest list, but with a trip to Hull City, Blues could reignite dreams of a fourth straight promotion in North Wales.
The Tigers would have been licking their lips at the prospect of a visit from Chris Davies’ side a week ago, but the victory against Wrexham was a gentle reminder of their capabilities. So can they replicate it in the East Riding of Yorkshire?
Sergej Jakirovic’s players do seem to be dropping like flies at a crucial time of the campaign. Former Blues pair Cody Drameh and Lewis Koumas are doubts for the match, whilst John Lundstram will be suspended after being sent-off at Sheffield United last time out.
Creative defender Ryan Giles is back in training but the game may come too soon for him. Charlie Hughes could be in line for a return to the side after a three-game winless run.
There will be few arguments if Davies elects the same side who started the 2-0 victory over the Red Dragons. Paik Seung-ho could return after being introduced at the interval on Sunday, whilst Kai Wagner’s impact on the side was notable.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Hull have conceded the fourth most goals in the league (60).
Opposition’s half:
When you look statistically at both Hull and Wrexham, there’s plenty of overlap between the two sides. One of the most glaring areas is their goals against, both ranking as the joint-fourth worst side for goals conceded.
The bad news for the Tigers however, is that they’re perhaps lucky to have conceded as few as the 60 they have. I’ll come onto their poor record more later but when it comes to their off the ball shape there are some red flags.
To start with, in high areas they adopt a dual-responsibility approach. Essentially this is where the attackers have more than one player to watch, closing down/marking whichever they think they should in that moment.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with this. It means they commit less bodies than in a man-to-man system and can be really effective, but it also leaves them hugely susceptible when the ball is moved quickly, catching them in between the two players rather than marking either.
What was also concerning in the footage I watched, was the fact that the players weren’t always sure of their roles. There were visible conversations about who they should be closing down, and disagreements on whose responsibility certain players were.
If Blues, who will probably look to be more direct at times as they have done lately, exploit these weaknesses in their high pressing shape, then they’ll get themselves into areas to capitalise on their poor defensive record.
Own half:
In some ways it’s hard to believe Hull have been so impressive results wise, given how leaky they are at the back. The Tigers have faced the second most shots on target in the league, so it’s not surprising that they’re conceding so many.
Ivor Pandur has still boasted a positive goals prevented rate despite conceding the most goals of any goalkeeper in the division which highlights the sheer volume of chances he’s facing.
Part of the reason they’re so weak is their set-pieces. They’ve faced the second most set-piece expected goals in the league yet it’s only contributed for 26.14% of their xG faced.
Both Hughes (first) and John Egan (ninth) rank inside the top 10 for blocks so they are allowing plenty to get to the stage where their centre-backs need to intervene. Their lack of midfield presence has been apparent.
I’m not sure who the hardened defensive figure in the centre of the park is. Toby Collyer added that against Coventry City but they’re still lacking a real destructive operator and it could allow the likes of Jay Stansfield and Carlos Vicente to find joy.
If Paddy McNair is the choice at right-back – should Drameh miss the match – then Ibrahim Osman could have plenty of joy up against him, dragging him into areas he doesn’t want to be.
In possession work:
Jakirovic’s side have averaged just 45.6% possession this term, the sixth lowest in the division.
Build up:
Hull haven’t built their success on dominating games, instead looking to utilise their forward threat rather than their possession capabilities.
When you look at the backline, particularly one missing Giles and without Hughes, they’re not blessed with a plethora of ball players.
They do go short at times, but rather than looking to bait the press and play through teams, they’re instead trying to funnel it out wide or hit a more direct pass into the forward players.
A lot of their threat earlier in the season came down the left flank with Giles, but in his absence there’s been more emphasis on forwards to create chances themselves.
It’s no surprise that they look to be more direct when you look at the profiles in their forward position. Ollie McBurnie is a huge danger and presence but the likes of Kyle Joseph and Matt Crooks are also big targets.
Chance creation:
Hull are huge scorers at the level and not only have three players with eight plus goals, but also each of them have racked up over 10 expected goals too so the volume of chances is stark.
They’re all different too. Joseph is much more of a workhorse who’s managed to get into some great positions, McBurnie is a lethal finisher and a dominant central striker whilst Joe Gelhardt has bags of ability.
They’ve only scored one goal from a direct attack, which Opta Analyst bases on vertical play. That highlights the importance of the wide areas and working it into the channels.
In the absence of Giles they’ve turned to Liam Millar, who’s finally fit and has excellent ability. Both Giles and Lewie Coyle rank in the league’s top five for successful crosses which highlights the emphasis on deliveries.
The distances between the wide players and the players in the box is apparent and that means the wingers have to be effective at taking on their man and getting it in.
When they are getting the ball into the box they’ve got lots of players who can sniff out a goal, and they all make different types of runs which is key. It overloads the opposition and almost always allows one of them to find space.
Statistical quirk:
Hull rank last for every single attacking set-piece metric, as per Opta Analyst, and have mustered up just seven set piece goals.
Key players:
- Lewie Coyle – given the defensive absentees the skipper will be key in ensuring they stamp out Blues’ threat.
- Joe Gelhardt – such a dangerous threat in any position across the front line, Joffy can hurt any side in the league with his quality.
- Ollie McBurnie – his ability at this level is unquestionable and he’ll provide another stern test for Christoph Klarer and Phil Neumann.
In a weird way, Blues are probably better off facing stronger opposition at the moment. Davies has looked to simplify the approach and clashing with teams who are expected to force the initiative plays into that.
There will be pressure on Hull, who know that Wrexham still have a chance of catching them. They’ve been in poor form and threw away a lead at Bramall Lane last weekend so if Blues can get in front, it’ll be a nervy stadium.
The Priske-Stansfield pairing bore fruit against Wrexham and with Hull’s frailties defensively, I’m sure they’ll get chances.
My prediction: Hull City 2, Birmingham City 2.
