Blues close the home season against the Robins
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
There’s plenty of soul searching for Birmingham City to do this summer. Where it’s gone right, where it’s gone wrong, and what learnings can be taken from this season.
Whether Chris Davies will be afforded the chance to correct the mistakes of this campaign is another question. Despite a renewed spell of form in recent games, plenty feel it’s too little too late for the Blues boss.
Regardless of your stance on Davies, I feel he deserves a dignified and respectful reception on Saturday. He’s given us some fantastic moments already, perhaps there’s more to come. But I hope he ends this campaign, at least, on positive terms with the supporters.
So can he secure a last home hurrah of the 2025/26 season?
Roy Hodgson will be without midfielder Max Bird after he suffered an injury against QPR. Without a number of centre-backs, Hodgson has been deploying Neto Borges at left centre-back.
Sinclair Armstrong caused Blues issues in the reverse fixture, but he may not be given the nod over Emil Riis.
Davies may opt for near enough the same side that battled to a 2-1 win over Preston North End on Wednesday.
He’ll likely be without Ibrahim Osman however so Demarai Gray will likely take his place, whilst Bright Osayi-Samuel or Ethan Laird is a toss up.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Bristol City rank 15th for goals conceded in the league (57).
Opposition’s half:
Hodgson admitted he’d not watched bags of Championship football before taking the Bristol City job so it’s fair to assume he’s sought to simplify the approach rather than coming in with a ground-breaking masterplan.
That checks out in the footage too. The Robins have opted for a 4-4-2 shape without the ball, closing off space and applying pressure where necessary.
Scott Twine, the attacking midfielder, pushes alongside the striker to make the forward pair and they do close down the centre-backs but more with the intention to force them to play quickly rather than in a high-octane pressing system.
The two central midfielders are quite aggressive when the ball gets through the first line, with one of them latching onto the opposition defensive midfielder and again trying to force the play backwards or wide.
It’s a compact shape and has proved effective so far for City, allowing them to gain more than half of the possession in three of their first-halfs so far under Hodgson.
Own half:
When the opposition do move into their territory, City are more vulnerable. They look to get support wide for their full-backs, with the ball-side winger getting back in, to almost form a back five.
It’s understandable when you consider they have Borges playing at centre-back, not naturally a central defender and therefore they want to minimise the barrage on their area.
All season the volume of chances they’re facing has been notable. Radek Vitek, on loan from Manchester United, has been kept busy in goal, making the third most saves per match and preventing the fourth most goals in the league.
However, City have stood fairly strong, keeping 13 clean sheets this term. They’re a battling side, able to compete and win their duels. They perhaps lack a bit of quality in the defensive third which allows them to be punished.
They’re also making far too many errors leading to goal and their wide build-up (as I’ll address) leaves the backline exposed when they turnover the ball.
In possession work:
The Robins have averaged just 49.3% of the ball this campaign.
Build up:
Much like their out of possession play, Bristol’s roles with the ball have largely been simplified.
It’s a standard back four, rather than the in possession three that so many teams adopt, with varying widths throughout out – perhaps the more complex element of the tactical plan.
The full-backs are encouraged to stay wide, leaving a 2-2 build up shape with Sam Morsy and Adam Randell – the deepest midfielders – in front of the centre-backs. Morsy likes to get on the ball and drops to the right of the CBs to do so.
Further up the pitch, the likes of Twine and Jason Knight tuck in to form the box shape in midfield. They pick up the ‘half spaces’, looking to hurt teams from the areas between the lines.
This leaves plenty of space for the full-backs to motor forward when they see fit. Mark Sykes on the right flank also drifts into a narrow position close to Riis at times, but he can also stay wider.
Chance creation:
The Robins haven’t been the most free scoring side in the division, particularly since the departure of Anis Mehmeti in January.
Twine is their biggest creative outlet, and the decision to still utilise him in central areas despite shifting to a back four has been a good one. He’s most effective from inside pockets and is fifth in the league for through balls.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Armstrong is selected at St. Andrew’s given his physicality caused Blues a real headache at Ashton Gate.
Their most effective attacks have been at speed, sitting third for fast breaks and fifth for goals from those scenarios. Armstrong’s athleticism could aid that.
They have been unlucky at times, striking the woodwork the fifth most times in the division – something Blues will have their own qualms with.
Both Riis and Twine are happy to shift into the channels to vacate space centrally and create overloads. That’ll be something to watch for Blues.
Statistical quirk:
Bristol City have conceded the highest percentage of goals inside the box (91.23%),
Key players:
- Radek Vitek – the loanee has had a stellar season on loan and may face a barrage of shots
- Sam Morsy – the Egyptian has a big role in progressing the ball so will need special attention.
- Scott Twine – City’s top goal contributor, Twine is a real danger both in open play and from set pieces.
This does feel like an opportunity to extend a decent bit of form for Blues. City are another team with little to play for and Davies seems to have stumbled on a solid formula.
It’ll be a battle and Blues will need to earn the right to play. But City have relied on Vitek’s heroics too often this campaign and Blues may be able to sustain pressure in the final third.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Bristol City 0.
