Blues hoping to continue strong end of season form.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
It’s not been the season anyone associated with Birmingham City hoped for – despite Chris Davies’ best efforts to make the case survival is success.
Plenty of voices both inside and outside the club were loudly beating the promotion drum 10 months ago, and what’s followed has been pretty underwhelming.
The summer inquest will begin – for some it already has and the club may have even come to their own conclusion – but continuing this mini-revival of form would end the campaign on better terms.
So how will the teams shape up at Fratton Park?
Well in a week where John Mousinho has been linked to Bristol City, the Pompey gaffer is slightly handicapped in his selection.
Former Blues winger Keshi Anderson is amongst a string of absentees, including the influential Terry Devlin and full-back Zak Swanson.
Blues may continue with the same side that beat Bristol City last weekend. Ibrahim Osman has been deemed available, having sat out the last match due to concussion suffered against Preston North End.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Pompey have conceded the sixth most goals in the league (63).
Opposition’s half:
Despite their heavy goals against tally, Pompey have actually registered a competitive expected goals against figure – the eighth best in the league.
That starts right from the front where they’ve been one of the more intense pressing units. Pompey rank fourth for most pressed sequences and you can see that in their somewhat chaotic set-up.
In some ways they utilise the 4-4-2 out of possession shape that has become commonplace across the league. Yet there are nuances in Pompey’s approach.
Adrian Segecic as the right winger is often a fair bit deeper than his opposite number, tucking inside his full-back to defend rather than jumping in front.
They utilise Marlon Pack aggressively in midfield, pushing close to the two front players (striker Colby Bishop and John Swift, the attacking midfielder). At times Bishop will be deeper with Pack and Swift ahead of him, with the press quite fluid.
The full-backs are encouraged to be aggressive and step into challenges/duels which does come with a level of risk. If they get it right however they can burst past opponents at speed with numbers in support.
Own half:
The aggression the full-backs show can leave them exposed in deeper areas, particularly for slidden passes inside of them into pockets of space.
This is why there’s a reliance on Segecic and the opposite flank winger to get back and support their full-back, to limit the 2v1s and the channels of space.
It’s not uncommon to see everyone back inside the deepest 20-25 yards in Pompey’s half. Bishop, Segecic, Swift and others are all hard workers and they can pack out the box.
They have been vulnerable aerially, conceding the second most headed goals despite facing the fourth least headed shots so that’s an area where August Priske may be called upon on the South Coast.
Defensive set pieces have also been a big concern, with 31% of their expected goals against coming from dead ball scenarios.
In possession work:
Mousinho’s side have averaged 50.4% possession this term.
Build up:
Pompey have been quite expansive in the games I’ve watched recently, perhaps symptomatic of the run they’ve been on and the feel-good factor that comes with wins.
The full-backs are pushed on high, encouraged to support their winger in the same way the wingers support them defensively. Those partnerships are key at both ends of the pitch.
The centre-backs, particularly Regan Poole, are happy to step into channels to provide that cover for the advanced full-back and it’s not uncommon to see the centre-backs stepping out with the ball too.
After a run of four wins in five matches, particularly against sides like Ipswich Town and Middlesbrough, confidence is flowing through the team and you can see that with the likes of Poole and, most recently, Madiodio Dia gliding past players with the ball.
They are quite direct, playing the second most accurate long balls per 90, and you can see why with a forward like Bishop who’s so combative.
Chance creation:
A lot of their final third play stems from utilising Bishop as a backboard. No player has competed for more aerial duels than him in the league and he’s won the fourth most so the battle with Christoph Klarer will be key.
He’s happy to drop in with runners going beyond him and the likes of Harvey Blair, Josh Murphy and Segecic can capitalise on the space he creates.
As I mentioned the full-backs push on high and they even drift into the half-spaces, offering a passing option for the wingers and dragging defenders away from the likes of Segecic, Murphy, Blair and Millencic Alli who can isolate and beat their man.
Murphy’s return has been a huge positive in the last two matches and the quality of his delivery against Stoke highlighted his influence. No player has more per 90 assists than him in the league and he ranks sixth for open play assists despite playing just over 1100 minutes.
When they can attack at speed they look really dangerous but sometimes their finishing can let them down. Segecic is the biggest threat, notching 10 league goals and ranking as the league’s fifth biggest xG over performer.
42.52% of Pompey’s shots have come from set pieces, the highest amount in the league, and that’s an area of concern for a Blues side who continue to struggle from dead balls.
Statistical quirk:
Pompey have played the least through balls in the league according to Opta Analyst (15).
Key players:
- Jordan Williams – a big role in supporting the attack, Williams has a great engine.
- Adrian Segecic – the Aussie is Pompey’s top scorer and has a lethal finish.
- Colby Bishop – despite a dip in his goalscoring exploits, Bishop is still an effective target man.
A trip to the South Coast in the sunshine feels an apt reward for the Bluenoses that have trekked up and down the country watching pretty drab results.
Blues have flattered to deceive on the road, but one last hurrah on final day would be a small consolation. It’s two sides in strong form but I feel Blues may pip the hosts.
My prediction: Portsmouth 1, Birmingham City 2.
