Going by the data and what he also witnesses, Chris Davies is pleased with a ‘solid’ Blues start to the Championship season.
That’s not to say he isn’t demanding more dangerous moments, chance creation and goalscoring from his side.
As Blues head to Stoke City on Saturday, the Blues manager spoke about the areas for improvement.
The international break, following on from the 2-0 defeat at Leicester City, provided scope for reflection.
“Obviously you never want to go into an international break on a defeat, that’s always a bit of a bad taste and it can linger on.
“But what I have seen and looked back on, reflected on, is that we have made a solid start. Especially defensively, we have we have given very little away.
“Across the league, if you look at the games and the numbers behind that, we’ve given very few chances away to the opposition.
“We have looked solid in that respect and all the underlying numbers point in that direction.
“We have stayed clear in our identity in the sense of we have pressed really successfully, we’ve dominated possession I think in every game, had a lot of territory.
“The final part, where we have probably fallen a little bit short on, is the chance creation to conversion.”
Blues are ranked 20th in the Championship for expected goals (xG) with 1.25.
Coventry City’s xG of 2.04 is the best in the league.
In terms of expected goals to be conceded, Blues have the best rating of 0.69 – and the best at home and away from home.
And the xG differential is +0.56, the third best in the division.
“I do find the underlying statistics a good barometer of where you are,” Davies admits.
“Like anything I always say with one eye I look at the data, with one eye I look at the subjective feel, the intuition – where it’s a combination of both.
“It (statistical data) is a good place to go and what I always look at is the xG differential. It’s what you are creating versus what you are conceding.
“We are strong in the xG differential right now, which is very encouraging.
“xG in terms of conceding has been excellent, which sounds bizarre because we have just lost 2-0. But they were moments (at Leicester), I suppose, and they punished us in both moments.
“But it is probably the attacking side we are a little bit down on, despite having a lot of possession and control. It’s something we need to keep working on.
“Every team that plays like us, in our style, has this exact same problem, pretty much. I’d rather have this problem than other ones.
“It’s not unfamiliar territory, it’s not overreacting to it. In the final phase, when we get there, we need to show our qualities in terms of crosses, combinations and punishing teams from set-piece opportunities.
“It’s trying to really impose box action, box entries, danger on the opposition to create clear and better chances.”
Demarai Gray is fit for the trip to the Potteries. He was clearly in discomfort at Leicester City after hurting his shoulder.
Jay Stansfield is ‘getting there, step by step,’ Davies says. He has been doing all the necessary rehabilitation at the training base in Henley-in-Arden since suffering a foot and ankle issue at the end of the Port Vale Carabao Cup tie.
Davies will assess the condition of Blues returning internationals, notably Paik Seung-ho, who was on duty for South Korea in New Jersey against the USA (90 minutes played in a 2-0 win) and in Nashville against Mexico (unused substitute, 0-0 draw) in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Bright Osayi-Samuel’s exertions for Nigeria – he featured in their 1-1 draw with South Africa in Bloemfontein on Tuesday – will also be taken into account.
Stoke won their opening three league games before West Bromwich Albion downed them at home before the break.
Paik’s compatriot, Bae Jun-ho, also played in America, starting the Mexico friendly. He could well be rested by Stoke.
The Potters loanees Divin Mubamba (Manchester City) and Ashley Phillips (Spurs) represented England Under-21s in Kazakhstan, along with James Beadle, and will no doubt be monitored, too.
Mark Robins’ side will provide stern opposition, according to Davies.
“I have seen all their games. Good team. Strong. Try to play. Good footballing team. Industrious, hard working on top of that and they’ve got their quality, attacking quality in the wingers and strikers.”
