Can Blues extend strong Ashton Gate record?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
And breathe. Phew. That was a massive three points on Tuesday night. It may not have been a performance for the ages, but it was a defiance of any accusation levelled at Chris Davies that insinuated he couldn’t adapt. The Blues boss showed there’s more strings to his bow.
That said however, I think the level needed to replicate those midweek heroics on Saturday will need to go up a notch. Bristol City are diligent, energetic and explosive. All qualities that have caused Blues issues at points this season.
So how good are the Robins? Well they’re fourth in the table and generally their underlying numbers indicate that’s a fair placement. There is some scope to doubt just how impressive their points haul has been thus far however.
Their wins have come against Sheffield Wednesday (24th), Sheffield United (21st), Norwich City (22nd), Hull City (7th) and Southampton (17th). That’s not the most collection of scalps but still you can only beat what’s in front of you.
Only two of their wins have come at Ashton Gate – Hull and Southampton – which will encourage the travelling faithful that their favourable record in the South West (six wins out of nine) can continue.
So how may Gerhard Struber set up his side on Saturday afternoon?
An injury crisis in the centre of the park has forced Struber to utilise a makeshift pairing of Adam Randell and Zak Vyner. The latter is a centre-back by trade but has performed admirably in midfield.
The side elsewhere is fairly settled with Mark Sykes or Ross McCrorie the biggest toss up at right wing-back, though there is a chance both could feature with McCrorie able to play on the left too.
For Blues I’d be keen to maintain some consistency. Bright Osayi-Samuel is suspended meaning a move to right-back for Tomoki Iwata is likely with Marc Leonard coming on in his place. Lewis Koumas may make way for Patrick Roberts if he’s available.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Bristol City have conceded just 11 goals so far this season, and have let in more than one on just two occasions in the Championship.
Opposition’s half:
I think it’s fair to say that when Struber was named as the Robins’ new head coach in the summer, the general expectation was that we’d hear two words very frequently; energy and intensity.
Those have rang true so far, with Struber setting up his team to press in the first phase. Their natural 3-4-2-1 shape becomes more like a 5-3-2 shape initially. Scott Twine – who plays on the right of the two number 10 positions – pushes up alongside Emil Riis whilst Anis Mehmeti – the other 10 – drops in to make an asymmetrical midfield three shape.
They’ve registered the seventh most high recoveries in the league and no side have made more interceptions, indicating their intent to force mistakes high where they can get their better players involved.
Despite the strong performances of Vyner, Bristol City are missing the presence of captain Jason Knight, who’s engine and tenacity is a big part of this pressing approach.
McCrorie as the right wing-back is encouraged to step high onto his man, with Twine tucking in a little more. This can make the shape into something of a 4-4-2 without possession. If McCrorie does fully jump onto the opposition’s full-back, then right centre-back George Tanner is also given license to push on.
This can leave them short of numbers in some aspects, but they back themselves to win the contact with the burly centre-backs of Rob Dickie and Rob Atkinson left back as cover.
McCrorie’s role is an interesting one as it seems a lot of decision making over whether he presses or stays is up to him on the pitch. I have observed that when the ball is worked from right to left, he can be hesitant in his judgement and if Blues can miss out the extra pass when playing horizontally, the ball out to the left winger could be available persistently.
I do feel there’s scope to break the first line of the press for Blues, with those midfield overloads. I’d expect Iwata to start at right back, and he can step inside to partner Marc Leonard whilst Tommy Doyle and Paik Seung-Ho also make up essentially a box midfield shape.
This could allow Blues to gain control centrally and look to hurt the hosts in their own half.
Own half:
In the middle third, the Robins aren’t quite as aggressive. They’re much more passive in their play, sinking into a 5-4-1 shape and allowing their opponents to have the ball. It’s almost as if the idea is to let them have it where they can’t hurt us.
This is perhaps partly down to the absences of Knight and fellow unavailable midfielders Joe Williams and Max Bird. Vyner is a defender by trade and defenders are often of the mindset ‘how do I stop myself having to run back’ so closing the space between the lines is natural.
That should allow time and room for the more incisive passers; Leonard, Doyle and Paik.
In the defensive third it almost becomes more tactile and front footed again. Their defenders seek to apply pressure to opponents receiving with their backs to goal and that can unsettle them before they’ve truly brought the ball under their spell, allowing for other defenders to pick up the loose ball.
However it also means they can overcommit and quick one touch passing can be the undoing of them. Opponents have had success picking out players in the pocket areas, between all four wide players and then moving the ball in behind sharply. That will be something to keep an eye on.
The quality of chance they’re conceding is pretty high, though granted they’re not giving tonnes away. That said there have been instances of individual lapses in concentration, whether that be mistimed interceptions or heavy touches in key areas.
In possession play:
Only Coventry have scored more goals and created more big chances than the Robins, so how do they do it?
Build up:
Given their tendencies to act fairly passively in the middle third, Bristol City do give up the majority of possession. They’ve averaged 47% possession, the 16th most in the division.
They are looking to play out where they can, with Dickie the main progressor from deep. He’s often the player receiving the ball from kick-off and has plenty of track record as a ball-player at this level.
Their ability to work the ball forward centrally has been weaker as of late. Vyner and Randell aren’t the most adept players to have when trying to work the ball out, with the latter often reluctant to turn with the ball and play. When they do break into space they’re each competent passers of the ball but they do look uneasy under pressure deep.
Instead they’ve looked for clipped balls down the channel and more direct methods to unlock their forwards. Funnily enough they actually have the worst accurate long balls percentage in the division, but I’ve found it a much more effective way for them to get the ball into dangerous areas in the footage I’ve seen.
The two number 10s are a nightmare for defenders to pick up as not only do they have the ability to run in behind, but they both also step away from their markers and come deeper to offer a passing lane, leaving Riis as the sole forward.
When Mehmeti and Twine are in their normal pocket areas teams have tried to block off their passing lane by squeezing the space between their own midfielders in front. This has been effective, however both McCrorie and left wing-back Neto Borges are front footed wide players who want to receive on the touchline.
This allows them to instead pick up the ball and either drive past their man or shift the angle which opens up Twine and Mehmeti to receive. There needs to be a plan to combat that.
Riis is combative up front and can not only hold his own in duels but also has the carrying ability to pick the ball up and look after it. Another big test for the backline but in a different way to Tuesday.
Chance creation:
From what I’ve seen, City don’t create plenty of free flowing moves which end in goals. Take their goals against Saints on Tuesday for example. Goal one: long ball clipped forward. Goal two: turnover and shot which rebounds out. Goal three: turnover, burst in behind and finish.
There’s nothing wrong with that, that’s no dig. It’s effective and will continue to be. Their squad is geared up for that system.
As I mentioned before Mehmeti and Twine are both able to get involved in build up but are both threats running in behind too. They’re always looking to make short darts behind defenders and Riis is too. Mehmeti probably possesses the most natural pace of the bunch but Twine and Riis are both able runners too.
They do take plenty of shots (fourth most) and the footage backs up that data. The players are encouraged to have a go from range whether that be Vyner or Twine.
McCrorie and Neto as mentioned both possess quality out wide and they can work the ball in, as well as swinging in crosses. Bristol City have taken the most touches in the opposition box and when you have forwards of the quality they do that’s a real issue for defenders.
Their finishing can leave a lot to be desired. Interestingly both Twine and Mehmeti have registered higher expected goals returns than their expected goals on target which measures the quality of finishing essentially so they can be wasteful in key areas.
That said they often get so many chances that it’s made up for.
From set pieces they’re fairly strong with the fourth best expected goals from set plays. Twine is an obvious threat with his ability to score from free-kicks whilst from corners they often start with a crowd of players around the keeper with that group moving towards the front post.
Statistical quirk:
Bristol City have led for the third longest time in the division this season (38.8%). If Blues get the first goal their ability to respond will be tested, just as it was on Tuesday.
Key players:
- Radek Vitek – the goalkeeper has been a solid performer on loan from Manchester United and has kept the second most clean sheets.
- Ross McCrorie – key to their attacking intent, the Scotsman provides width and support for Twine down the right.
- Scott Twine – showing what he’s about at this level and just how good he can be, he’ll be key to anything good for City.
Preston was a nervy contest and they perhaps didn’t have the quality to make their momentum count in that second half. Bristol City do have more final third quality and will take their chances, being the second top scorers in the league.
Hopefully the defensive grit shown in the win at Deepdale is a sign of things to come with a more settled XI and a more settled defensive unit.
Blues have a good record at Ashton Gate, though wins at Ewood Park and Deepdale and a defeat against Stoke have shown that history can mean little this time around in the second tier.
I hope Tuesday night was a turning point, though selection absences do leave Davies’ hands partially tied. Both teams feel bound to score, but whether Blues can limit the Robins to one goal will be key.
I’m optimistic, and I’m going to predict optimistically. But maybe that’s the immediacy of our midweek win clouding my judgement!
My prediction: Bristol City 1, Blues 2.
