Blues looking to continue their hot home streak.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Welcome back Nathan Jones. Blues have always had a complicated relationship with the Welshman, whether it be his complaints over a stewards intervention, the 2021 side thrashing his Luton Town team 8-0 across both games, or the Charlton boss’ passive aggressive comments following last year’s St. Andrew’s clash.
Well now Jones (pictured above) arrives in the Second City in dire need of a break. His Charlton tenure hasn’t always been straightforward, but almost all of the goodwill he earned in guiding them back into the Championship seems to be wearing thin.
The Addicks have struggled to turn the tide after a good start to their campaign, with just one win in their last eight full matches. They head to St. Andrew’s in a rut, so can they shake it and what team may he deploy to try and do so?
There’s a huge shortage at left wing-back which has disrupted the structure of Jones’ side. Former Blues loanee Onel Hernandez could be deployed there, or new signing Jérôme Roussillon may make his league bout.
Up front a combination of Tyreece Campbell and Miles Leaburn may be most effective, whilst any number of midfield combinations could be considered.
For Blues you’d imagine changes will be required given the regularity of games lately and that may come in midfield where Marc Leonard may start or with Keshi Anderson’s introduction out wide.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Charlton have faced the fewest percentage of shots from inside the box (55.7%).
Opposition’s half:
Charlton’s big strength under Jones is their fitness and, ironically, their athletic advantages. They’re one of the most aggressive off the ball teams in the division, and frankly that tenacity is what got them promoted.
Throughout the team they’re littered with players who have impressive engines and that helps when they essentially go man-for-man. Their two forwards in their 3-5-2 shape close the centre-backs whilst two of the midfielders push onto the opposition pivot and the wing-backs aren’t afraid to step onto the full-backs/wingers.
Now when you get this kind of system right, it can be really effective. They have done that to a point, registering the fifth most high recoveries, however the majority of those are at home.
This kind of approach can be high intensity, and particularly at the end of a three-game week it can cause problems – in a week that’s been emotionally tolling on Charlton as well as physically.
What’s stark about Charlton’s approach is that whilst they have got success in winning the ball high in opposition territory, they’ve won the least turnovers in midfield. When that first phase is bypassed they really struggle and they don’t have players with the speed to change direction in midfield quickly.
Even when they have gained success turning it over, splitting the centre-backs, forcing the ball wide and then squeezing the opposition, they haven’t managed to turn it into goals – registering the lowest percentage of high turnovers that end in a shot.
They are clever in covering off the extra man advantage the opposition have in build up, much more than QPR say who also want to be man-to-man. They curve their runs, and pass men off and it’s not always flat out running for the sake of it – they do pick their moments to engage.
But Jones wants his team to be tactile and as such he’s packed it with players whose instinct is to get out and get in the opposition’s faces. However when your opponents are as evasive and technically sound as Blues are, then stopping them progressing the ball centrally can be a problem and I suspect it will be – especially if they don’t deal with Jay Stansfield properly.
Own half:
Now I’ve said that Charlton are athletic, and they are in some ways. But there are many definitions of that word and they lack elements; speed, agility etc.
That’s an issue when you’re a high pressing team as it’s all well and good being able to run one way, but when you get caught out it’s very difficult to recover.
Charlton are very vulnerable in this way, and that’s been exposed lately. Coventry City for example were excellent at drawing them on, then hitting the ball long to force the defence backwards and picking up the pieces in midfield where space was rife.
The problem Jones has got is that Kayne Ramsay, Lloyd Jones and Macauley Gillesphey are all inclined to run towards their own goal. Lloyd Jones is a more aggressive centre-back but his lack of pace means he wants to reduce the space behind him.
That’s only worsened when you’re conceding goals as frequently as the Addicks are. A confidence crisis leads to the team sinking deeper more quickly and conceding goals in rapid succession – something they’ve done in three of their last four defeats.
Out wide they’re not particularly proficient either with James Bree and likely Hernandez their wing-backs when they arrive at St. Andrew’s. They’re both more creative forces than defensive minded operators and can be caught out in tracking their men.
When they do face deliveries into the box – which happens regularly due to their low possession share – then Jones is a really effective defender to have, but the others around him leave a lot to be desired. Late runners or second balls can be a real issue for them.
In possession work:
Only Derby County have averaged a lower possession percentage than Charlton’s 41.5%.
Build up:
What I really liked about Charlton last season was that their play was quite varied in the second half of the campaign and they could compete in multiple facets of the game.
In addition to their tenacious pressing and their direct attacking intent, they also had the ability to play through the thirds. That ability has taken a hit with the step up in league and they’ve become a bit more agricultural.
Out of their prominent midfielders – the likes of Connor Coventry, Luke Berry, Harvey Knibbs, Greg Docherty, Karoy Anderson and Sonny Carey – I’m not sure there’s that much progressive quality, at least in the passing sense with Carey a more effective carrier.
As such they look to hit the ball long almost as often as they can, with Leaburn a huge aerial force whilst Isaac Olaofe and Campbell are really effective runners in behind.
That makes them a threat to any team but especially a Blues side who could line up with Tomoki Iwata, Christoph Klarer and Jack Robinson amongst the defensive line.
If Ramsay plays left-back and they shift to a four then progressing the ball forwards can be difficult for them without a natural left footer and Blues could capitalise on that. Likewise I’m sure Chris Davies’ team can get at Coventry.
Chance creation:
This is where Charlton really fall down. Of all the xG created in their last five games for both sides, just 23% of it has been their own – the lowest in the division.
A huge part of their attacking play is their set plays which is good news for the Addicks against Blues, who’ve still looked shaky from dead-ball scenarios lately despite conceding fewer goals. 55% of their goals have come from set pieces which is the most for any team.
When they do get into good areas, whether that’s through a successful drive up the pitch by Campbell or Carey or whether it’s through turning over the ball in forward areas, they’ve failed to truly capitalise and make chances as shown by their poor high turnover to shot number above.
Part of that issue is there’s not tonnes of shooting instinct in the squad. Carey is their top scorer and he undoubtedly isn’t afraid to get shots off. But outside of him there’s not enough.
Only five of their players with over 500 minutes have taken more than one shot per 90 and only Carey takes two or more, whereas for Blues nine players take one or more and four of those take two or more.
Set pieces will be a big test and their physicality can always cause issues – I really like Campbell for what it’s worth. But they struggle to retain the ball, and they’ve increasingly failed to regain it away from home. That’s always going to hinder how much a team can create.
Statistical quirk:
Charlton have faced the fourth most shots in the league, yet the fourth fewest shots on target. Their 23.2% on target ratio is the lowest in the division.
Key players:
- Lloyd Jones – a huge stalwart in the backline and a big threat from dead-ball scenarios too.
- James Bree – the former Villa man has proved a growing creative influence and has created the most big chances in the squad.
- Tyreece Campbell – his energy and running power is crucial to Jones’ system and he can show plenty of moments of quality.
I’m quite confident for this fixture, which I can’t say I have been for either of the previous two games this week. Charlton are in a rut and Blues haven’t failed to capitalise on other teams that have been in similar veins of form already this season – beating Norwich and Portsmouth handily.
Charlton feel like a team that are losing faith in the ideas that have got them to this point. Jones has based a lot of his philosophy on intensity but the physical demands on the side are showing.
I can see them surrendering plenty of possession and struggling to turn the ball over against Blues, who are more than capable at looking after the ball. That said they’ll no doubt have a spell where they threaten and set pieces could be a big part of that.
Goals have been easy to come by for the hosts at St Andrew’s lately and Charlton are shipping plenty, all of which points to a strong home performance.
My prediction: Birmingham City 3, Charlton Athletic 0.
