Will Blues get back to winning ways at St. Andrew’s?
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
The defeat to Bristol City was a difficult one to take in some senses, mainly due to the fact Birmingham City controlled large parts of the contest. But moments matter, and Sinclair Armstrong made his count.
The away form is still up and down, and likely will be until Blues concoct some sort of formula to counteract their lack of athleticism in defence and their absence of true creative influence in forward areas. The home form, however, feels imperative to keeping results ticking.
Defeat to Hull City ended a 556 day spell without league defeat on home soil, and now it’s up to Chris Davies to pick up his players and begin rebuilding that record. First test? Portsmouth.
On paper, beginning that quest against a side who have taken just 20 points from their 84 available since their return to the second tier is as ideal as it can get. John Mousinho’s Pompey have averaged just 0.71 points per game (PPG) in their 28 league away matches since the beginning of the 2024/25 campaign.
This season however they’ve been beaten just once, and have taken six of those points in their last five – increasing their PPG to 1.2. They’ve put in some impressive displays, taking points off of West Bromwich Albion, Leicester City and arch rivals Southampton along the way.
So how may the visitors line-up in a first league clash between these sides in over 13-and-a-half years?
Of all the opponents in the division, Portsmouth arguably have the most settled XI. Mousinho named 10 of the same team for the three matches prior to last weekend’s defeat to Stoke City, with Jordan Williams and Zak Swanson each featuring at right-back.
Injuries have plagued the squad with the likes of Adrian Segecic and Callum Lang facing spells on the sidelines, but the silver lining from their defeat to Stoke was the return of Josh Murphy – last season’s top assist provider.
For Davies, there seems to be more questions than answers as the weeks go by. Should Bright Osayi-Samuel return at right-back? Who is the best midfield pairing? And which forward combination can get the best out of Jay Stansfield – who had just eight touches at Ashton Gate.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Pompey’s hybrid off the ball approach has helped them stifle the quality of some of the league’s best squads so far this campaign. Will Blues fall victim to the same fate?
Opposition’s half:
Portsmouth, as hinted at above, do take something of a hybrid approach to their game without the ball. It’s been key to their success this season with nine of their 13 points so far coming when they’ve had 44% of the ball or less.
In the high phases it’s – shock horror – a variation of a 4-4-2 set up (do managers really have no originality?!). Colby Bishop is the lone striker on paper but John Swift, who’s returning from suspension, will push alongside him to create that shape.
They’ll look to force the ball wide where they feel they can win the battle. A lot of their duels/turnovers both for and against come in wide areas and they’ll back themselves to compete there.
One adaptation I noticed vs Coventry was that they moved more to a 5-2-3 shape off the ball, as Frank Lampard elected for a back three. Now Blues will by no means be fielding another centre-half on Saturday but with the way it works in build up there is the chance this kind of shape occurs with Yang Min-hyeok tucking in as a sort of left wing-back.
They have turned over the ball the sixth most in the final third according to FotMob yet they’re more passive in their latter play. A lot of their defending is better when they’re organised so getting caught in transition is where they can become vulnerable – not ideal news for Davies.
There’s not tonnes else to say about their play in a high shape so I’ll move on to the deeper stuff.
Own half:
It’s no coincidence that Pompey have had more success against the teams I mentioned above. Their game plan defensively is much better against more controlled, organised attacks – again a nightmare scenario for Blues.
Blues sit sixth in the league for 10+ pass sequences. The only sides that sit above them are West Bromwich Albion, Southampton, Leicester City, Swansea City and Middlesbrough – of the four that Pompey have played they’ve taken points in each.
Each of those sides also sit below Davies’ team in the ‘direct speed of attack’ table which again lends itself to the idea that they prefer defending against slower, more meticulous attacks.
You can see that in the footage too. When they’re allowed to shrink back into their shape, Pompey are regimented and difficult to break down. They rank in the bottom four for interceptions and tackles won per match and a lot of the time they’re quite passive.
This is bad news for Blues in my eyes. Coventry City managed to break down Mousinho’s team with direct and explosive attacks, or chaotic scenarios like a corner scramble. Davies’ team haven’t got that and will likely play into the hands of the visitors.
They’ve conceded the fourth least from open play but the fourth most from counter attacks – again lending to the concept they struggle with speedy, effective transitional sides.
I’m not confident that this squad has the right tools to break down a team like Pompey. They’ll relish the way Blues will look to get on the ball, and perhaps the late chaos in the game that Lyndon Dykes could bring or Kyogo Furuhashi could be an avenue but largely in settled play I think Pompey will fancy themselves to keep Blues quiet.
In possession play:
Much like their defensive work, Pompey blend a direct and technical style when attacking. Their average 49.5% possession is the 14th most in the league.
Build up:
A lot of Portsmouth’s play is aimed at maximising their advantages – which seems pretty obvious but in the Championship, stunningly, not all coaches are looking to best utilise the players at their disposal.
They know that a lot of what makes them strong in this division is their physical edge in certain areas, and how this complements the ball dominant players in their squad.
In build up Marlon Pack often drops in between the two centre-backs, or even just to the side of them to form a back three. This gives Pompey enough protection to push their full-backs wider, and in turn allow their on paper wingers (Yang and Conor Chaplin) to tuck inside.
Similarly to Coventry’s build up style this only leaves former Blues man Andre Dozzell as a consistent body in midfield. His talents with the ball allow them to retain possession deep but also look forwards.
Bishop and Connor Ogilvie are often the outlets for their more direct play. A clipped ball towards Bishop up front often results in either a flick on into the path of an off the ball runner or a cushioned header into the feet of Yang, Chaplin, or Swift who are all technically gifted players and can spark an attack.
Ogilvie is also a consistent outlet, often towering over his opposite number from left-back and being able to head into the path of either Dozzell or Yang and bypass the first line or two of the opponent’s pressing structure. Expect to see plenty of clipped passes out to him on Saturday.
Bishop ranks in the top 18% for both aerial duels won per 90 and duels won per 90 whilst Ogilvie ranks in the top 22% for both statistics too.
Pack is often central to their progression, whether on the floor or long. He’s played the second most accurate long balls per match in the division (5.1) and Pompey sit fourth for the same statistic.
They’re not entirely direct and do look to settle on the ball and move it at the right moments but it’s not long before a sweeping forward pass is made.
Chance creation:
Portsmouth’s emphasis on getting the ball into the areas they think they have the advantage is why they do create a fair amount. They sit 10th for field tilt which shows they’re getting substantial amounts of touches in their opponents’ defensive third.
After the clipped balls towards Ogilvie and Bishop the next phase is often where the chance comes from. With the ball at the feet of the more creative players they can then hurt teams.
Yang has become a real spark in recent weeks, causing headaches for right-backs across the division. He loves driving towards the byline and can go inside or outside, with a fierce shot in his locker too.
Chaplin and Swift equally have talent at this level whether that’s picking out teammates or getting into dangerous areas themselves. Chaplin loved to drift infield from the right towards the penalty spot when the ball was down the left at Ipswich and we haven’t seen that fully utilised yet.
Don’t be surprised with Yang’s form if he pulls a delivery back towards Chaplin and he finds himself in that penalty spot area.
Another huge positive for Pompey fans is the return of Josh Murphy. He provided 14 assists last campaign and we already witnessed how dangerous he could be against Stoke last weekend, whipping in two delightful crosses with his left foot.
He’ll be a constant danger when he comes on, with one of the most threatening crosses in the league and the ability to go both ways. It’s not great timing to be facing Pompey now.
The issue has often come in finishing chances this season. Segecic is the top scorer and is now sidelined whilst Lang was a consistent source of goals last season and again is injured.
Murphy’s absence has held them back whilst Bishop has been lacklustre in front of goal, missing the third most big chances in the division and Pompey scoring just two of their 19 big chances according to FotMob.
Makenzie Kirk has been a bright spark off of the bench and could cause danger for the Blues defence, with a real eye for a dart in behind and a cool finish against Coventry recently.
Pompey’s attacking play hasn’t clicked yet, but don’t be surprised if it’s soon. The return of Murphy is gigantic and they’ll back themselves to cause issues to a Blues backline which has been shaky at times.
Statistical quirk:
Only Sheffield United have a worse conversion rate than Portsmouth’s 6.76% but their conversion rate from last campaign (11%) would be the sixth best in the division this year.
Key players:
- Marlon Pack – hugely key to their in possession strategy, Pack is the most involved player in both phases.
- Regan Poole – featuring in every minute of this campaign, Poole has been the consistent centre-back in the pair this season.
- Josh Murphy – he may not start the match but Murphy is essential going forwards. They look much more dangerous with him.
I’m not as optimistic for this clash as I usually am and, as a Chris Davies supporter, that worries me. This week feels big in the context of our season. Two home matches which require a healthy points return and a trip to Middlesbrough which is always tricky.
Portsmouth feels like the one Blues need to win in order to start how they mean to go on but the more I see and read about them, the more I feel this game is tailor made for them.
Blues will likely fall into the same traps that other organised and at times laboured attacks did. And Pompey will lie in wait with their own tools to hurt teams, particularly now Murphy is back to fitness.
I’m intrigued to see how the players and supporters respond to the loss of the imperious home record, and I just have a feeling that this game will see that go from bad to worse. Blues are capable of winning it, but I’m just not sure they will.
My prediction: Blues 1, Portsmouth 2.
