Davies seeks to improve away record.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Preston North End always feels a tricky place to go for Birmingham City. Blues have only won at Deepdale in two of their nine visits since the Lilywhites returned to the second tier in 2015.
Whilst managers come and go you always know the minimum levels to expect at North End and the games have been tight historically with none of the last eight clashes being won by more than a single goal.
Preston have made Deepdale a fortress so far this campaign, winning three of their first five matches and picking up 11 points on the way – the league’s joint second best tally. Blues’ away form has left a lot to be desired so immediately that makes for some grim reading.
Consistency has been a big factor in their early success this season. They’re one of just six teams in the division (including Blues) who’ve had their manager in post since the beginning of last campaign*.
*Yes, Ryan Lowe did manage the first game but it’s as close as can be.
They’ve also had a relatively settled squad. That may be a surprise given Paul Heckingbottom was digging out his players and his lack of resources towards the end of last campaign, but the 12 additions they did make in the summer have been integrated gradually.
Eight Preston players have played at least 85% of their league minutes already, with six of those players there last campaign, as well as goalkeeper Daniel Iversen who previously spent two loan spells at the club plus new talisman Thierry Small.
What they have added however is plenty of options and small but regular changes have made the difference for Heckingbottom’s team so far.
So how may they line-up for this game?
The striker department is probably where the most change could come. Milutin Osmajic, Michael Smith, Daniel Jebbison and Lewis Dobbin all bring different qualities and Heckingbottom has recognised that, rotating the quartet depending on the opponent.
The players who went on international duty (Ali McCann, Osmajic, Andrija Vukcevic and Stefan Thordarson) had limited minutes on Saturday at West Bromwich Albion so could all play a part.
For Blues it’s about balancing game by game adjustments with the need to get some consistency both of results and of team selection. I don’t know where to start, aside from Jack Robinson evidently out.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession play:
Preston have boasted a solid defensive record thus far at Deepdale, conceding just three goals in their five home matches.
Opposition’s half:
Preston are one of the most passive teams in the division out of possession, seeking to caution off space rather than press the ball high.
They have the second deepest line by distance in the division and whilst one player does engage with the ball player it’s more with the intention of forcing an action rather than necessarily winning the ball back.
They go with a 2-1 shape in their highest actions, with Ben Whiteman supporting the front two, and the other players covering passes around them.
When they do win it back they’re far from effective, having the lowest percentage of high turnovers resulting in shots of any team. That’s a green flag for Blues who will probably be afforded a little more time in the first phase.
Lining up in a 3-5-2 and at times an asymmetrical one, Heckingbottom has had to be inventive with who picks up who.
When the ball is down the opposition’s left, right wing-back Small presses their left-back if he receives, whilst the right of the front two jumps onto the centre back.
On the opposite side the left centre forward presses the opposition’s right centre back as normal but it’s the left of the three in midfield who jumps out onto the opposition’s right-back.
This does mean space can be left behind them, but Whiteman is brilliant at shuffling across to close space whilst the centre-backs are given licence to step out, particularly the middle centre-back in following the striker.
The hooked ball into the channel could be useful with pace not in heavy supply in the Preston side but they are clever in seeing this, with the left centre-back regularly dropping 10 yards to safeguard against that ball.
Own half:
This is where the bulk of Preston’s defensive work comes, and given they’re one of the lower possession ranked teams, there’s a decent amount of it to get through.
Like nearly every team in the division, they do at times go for a 4-4-2 block structure with Small stepping out to make it a midfield three, and Jordan Storey (RCB) shifting across to make a back four.
When the ball is down the Preston right side they enact this, to get more tactile with opponents as so few teams play a three back formation which means there’s often some variation in the marking roles.
Largely though they are in their 3-5-2 (or 5-3-2) structure and absorbing pressure.
When I say absorbing pressure however that’s probably a little unfair. They’re snappy in their off the ball attitude and aren’t simply inviting pressure into the box.
They’ve conceded the lowest percentage of shots against inside their box and that’s partly down to how strong the aerial defenders are in there. Probably the biggest indication of their strength is that only three sides have conceded fewer goals than them.
When they do face shots they’ve got the brilliant Iversen to lean upon. Preston have prevented the third most goals compared to xG of any side and Iversen has shown his ability to pull off the extraordinary this season, with a world class save against Bristol City.
Another area where they’ve improved drastically is their tendency to give away fouls. Last campaign they conceded the second most whereas this time around only two sides have given away fewer. This relieves pressure on the box, though Blues aren’t likely to make the most of it with a poor set piece record.
When they do have to defend corners they set up with a largely man for man system, with three players free to challenge – one at the front post area, one on the six yard box, and one further out, able to press the corner taker if the ball goes back out to them.
This has been an effective solution so far, conceding just two set piece goals and allowing the sixth least set piece xG against.
In possession play:
Preston rank ninth for goals scored in the league despite a low possession share. So how do they do it?
Build up:
One of the more direct teams in the league, Preston’s build up may not be as intricate as other sides but to limit them simply to a long ball team would be unfair.
They do knock it around the back line and look to get it into their midfield players – particularly Whiteman – but what I would say is that they’re a safety-first team, not afraid to play back to Iversen and allow him to clear his lines if need be.
I was amazed to see that Preston have the highest percentage of build up down their left flank. I assumed that with Alfie Devine and Small they’d look to feed their right channel but watching the footage they do that in a different way.
They look to use the strikers as focal points with Smith the biggest target and an aerial monster, Jebbison also able to take the ball and wait for others and Osmajic a huge nuisance.
A lot of the balls are towards the left side when Smith plays, as he’s most likely to win it with a 47.9% aerial duel rate. They then get players around him who can pick up the second balls, with Vukcevic and Harrison Armstrong/McCann pushing onwards.
The crosses come from the left a lot of the time with Devine and Small arriving later onto the play, and attacking the back post.
Whiteman is a huge outlet in build up, and much more creative than he’s given credit for. He’s always looking to play forwards, and gets on it so regularly. A real gem for Heckingbottom at the moment.
Where they are weak is if they lose the initial contact in the duel, often their players have overcommitted to try and win the knock down and if that falls the way of a Blue shirt, then they can be bypassed.
Chance creation:
Preston are probably not naturally associated with speed, but this side are one of the quickest transitional teams in the division.
They have the sixth quickest direct speed of play, and have scored the fifth most goals from direct attacks in the division. The likes of Small, Jebbison, Osmajic, Devine and Dobbin can all threaten in transition.
Dobbin is a really interesting player, and one who could cause issues. Unlike the other forwards he specialises in dribbling with the ball, protecting it with his body and has the ability to shoot off of both feet. That could be an issue, especially from range if he’s not closed down enough – and he has Villa connections.
Again focused on quick movements, the Preston forwards are always looking to make short darts inside of their markers to get in behind the defence. Whiteman is excellent at getting his head up early and spotting these movements and with the lack of pace in the Blues defence, that could be an issue.
Efficiency is probably the word with Preston, who’ve not got a high possession share nor a high expected threat rank (which measured your territorial danger) but they do rank third for passes into the box per possession so when they have it they’re getting it into dangerous areas.
They’ve swung in the fourth most crosses in the league with a) the players to attack them and b) the players to pick up the second balls.
Small has the ability to create out of nothing, twisting and turning away and always has the option of Devine running ahead of him as he gets on his bike to stretch the defence often.
They scored their first substitutes’ goal of the season at the weekend against the Baggies, but with the array of options they have, there could be more where that came from.
Statistical quirk:
Despite attempting the fourth most crosses, Preston have taken the ninth least headed shots in the league. It’s about more than the first contact for them.
Key players:
- Daniel Iversen – a brilliant shot stopper, and a goalkeeper who really suits what Heckingbottom has instilled.
- Thierry Small – such a dangerous player with not only his physical attributes but his technical quality too, a huge outlet.
- Ben Whiteman – a midfield metronome. I’ve loved his creative tendencies this season. Huge to the consistency of the team.
I felt very deflated after Saturday’s result but objectively looking at it, we’ve generated plenty of chances and been let down by some poor decision making from a range of stakeholders.
I’m still confident that going forwards we’re in decent shape. Defensively we need to find a solution and hopefully Phil Neumann will get an opportunity with Robinson suspended. It may not be the perfect fix but for me he’s the best option available.
Preston will be a tough test, it always is, and I’d be lying if I said I was confident we were going to go to Deepdale and perform admirably. The atmosphere isn’t hugely positive at the moment, but the nature of games this month means a quick upturn in form is feasible.
I like a lot of what Preston have done this season, and in a lot of ways they know what they are and know what minimum level of performance they’re going to get from each player – I’m not sure you can entirely say that for the Blues team. Therefore I’m going to go for a draw but even that feels optimistic.
My prediction: Preston North End 1, Blues 1.
