Blues hoping to continue unbeaten home form.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
For all the questions that have been asked of Chris Davies over the last few weeks, particularly following successive away defeats to Leicester City, Stoke City and Coventry City, one thing that can’t be called into question is his team’s record at St. Andrew’s.
Blues have been relentless under Davies on home soil, winning 21 of their 26 league matches in B9. They’re unbeaten across both League One and the Championship in over a year when they’re the home side and St. Andrew’s is a place where confidence flows through the squad.
There will be few games where Blues are more heavily favoured than against Sheffield Wednesday, a club whose confidence is probably as low as it’s been in recent memory. Even with relegation to the third tier, Wednesday fans probably haven’t felt a disconnect with their club as big as they do currently.
Their home form is probably the starkest example of that, having scored a single goal at Hillsborough in the Championship. Their home record was abysmal last season – winning just six of their 23 league games – but this season it feels certain to worsen.
Their away record has surprisingly been competitive. They’ve picked up four points from their first three matches on the road and were competitive even in their defeat to Leicester on opening day.
So a club in turmoil heading to face an imperious team on home turf, sounds pretty straight forward? Blues fans know by now it’s never that easy.
So what may the teams look like?
Well rotation has proved an issue for Wednesday, with a disrupted pre-season and a small squad proving damaging to their fitness levels. Owls boss Henrik Pedersen has tried to chop and change where he can, particularly up front but wholesale changes are near impossible.
George Brown netted his first goal against Portsmouth, partnering Bailey Cadamarteri up front with Jamal Lowe, Charlie McNeill and Ike Ugbo watching from the bench. With the former pair starting the game against QPR on Saturday they will likely make way for the trip to the Midlands.
Barry Bannan has been the lynchpin of the midfield alongside Svante Ingelsson and former Blue Yan Valery whilst Dominic Iorfa and Max Lowe will flank either Gabriel Otegbayo, with Earnie Weaver injured against the R’s.
For Blues this game feels like the perfect opportunity for Patrick Roberts to come in on the right with Lewis Koumas likely dropping out. Phil Neumann may come in for Bright Osayi-Samuel and Kyogo Furuhashi for Lyndon Dykes is also likely.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession play:
This has predominantly been what Sheffield Wednesday have been doing for large parts of football games so far this season – averaging the third lowest possession of any side.
Opposition’s half:
Sheffield Wednesday aren’t a huge pressing team, and frankly they shouldn’t be. Could you imagine if this squad who’ve got just 12 players over the age of 23 looked to hunt down every team they played, in a season of 46 league games plus cups? They’d burn out incredibly quickly and get ripped apart for the rest of the season.
So luckily for the Owls Pedersen is smarter than that, and has looked to make them a little more compact. That said, they’re not sitting ducks, at least not for the first period of matches. They like to pick their moments to engage.
Ingelsson has a really interesting role in this side, which on paper lines up as a 5-3-2. He’s one of the three midfielders but when they don’t have the ball almost transitions into a left-wing role with the right-striker splitting to form a front three. This helps them block passing lanes with opponents looking to build out in a 2-1 shape with the goalkeeper and the centre-backs from goal kicks.
Again they’re not going man-to-man and hounding opponents on the edge of their box, but they do look to stop those passes centrally and instead funnel the ball wide. Bannan and Valery form a narrower pairing in midfield behind the three ‘forwards’, again negating those central channels.
Where Wednesday do like to challenge for the ball is in wide areas. Straight from kick-off at Fratton Park they curled a long ball into the channel, backing themselves to defend and gain an advantage from the Portsmouth throw-in more than retaining possession.
When opponents shift the ball to a side the ball-side wing-back jumps to go and pressurise the full-back (dependent on team shape) with the wide centre-back subsequently picking up the ball-side winger.
They know down wide channels they can pinch the ball without giving up harmful spaces, particularly given they have two natural wide full-backs down each side with Max Lowe and Harry Amass on the left and Valery and Liam Palmer on the right, which allows them to cover each other.
Own half:
When opponents do manage to break through that first line Wednesday quickly shrink back into a mid or low-block. That’s again understandable, given the quality in the side isn’t amongst the best in the division. This is also a theme for large parts of the game later on, where their energy up front and in midfield does wane.
When they are defending deeper they’re not afraid to step out, particularly when it comes to the wide centre-backs. Both Max Lowe and Iorfa are encouraged to step alongside the midfielders who can become stretched and unable to cover the entirety of the space in front of the defence.
Particularly when opposition players play in those pockets/half-spaces the wide centre-backs look to challenge them. Max Lowe down the left can do this especially as Amass is a natural left-back who can tuck in to cover the vacated space.
This does need to be done smoothly however as if the Manchester United loanee doesn’t get round on the cover a channel can open up. Roberts could be the ideal player to exploit this from a Blues perspective, having tonnes of experience and also being left-footed meaning he can roll inside and receive behind Max Lowe, opening up a lot of space for Blues centrally.
When Wednesday are in a sort of mid-block shape there’s also the risk that they get caught out in behind. The defence does lack some pace and also may not have bags of positional nous – with Max Lowe a full-back by trade, Iorfa more of a physical defender and Weaver/Otegbayo both younger options who may not read the game as well.
Teams can exploit those spaces by putting the ball through with the Owls’ line often weak. They’re frequently out of sync with each other which opens up the chance for those curved movements which is something to watch out for, especially in Kyogo’s case.
In possession play:
Wednesday’s creative numbers have been pretty solid considering a) the lack of senior options they have at their disposal and b) the lack of possession they’re having in games. They certainly pack a punch.
Build up:
A lot of Wednesday’s attacking play comes from them looking to be direct. Both Ugbo and Brown are physical forwards who can be targeted and rather than building through the thirds they look to play off second balls.
Bannan is a real creator and is still having a big impact on the side, averaging 63.2 touches per match, but to an extent they look to bypass midfield in their play. Even when they do settle on the ball for a second, it’s not long until a ball is hooked forwards.
Now some of their strikers may be young but they shouldn’t be underestimated. George Brown was a persistent nuisance against Pompey, whilst Cadamarteri has been bright so far this campaign and took his goal against Wrexham really nicely.
When they do get the ball forwards they can cause issues and they have the likes of Bannan dictating so they could very quickly spring an attack on Blues who must not leave themselves all at sea.
A lot of their build up comes down the channels too with Palmer and Valery looking to combine down the right and deliver whilst Ingelsson and Amass have both played lovely curling passes down the left flank with the striker making that dart in behind the full-back to receive.
Chance creation:
In the final third there are again positives for Owls fans. Wednesday have created the ninth best open play expected goals of any team which is fairly remarkable. They haven’t managed to turn that into goals consistently which probably comes down to the limited options they do have in forward areas.
Their expected threat rank (which generally measures the areas you get into and how dangerous they are) is again impressive. This demonstrates that their pragmatic approach is paying dividends and they do pose a real threat. Their passes into the box per possession rank is strong too.
What they do have is the ability to cause danger in the box. When they work the ball down the right flank Palmer has quality to deliver. Whether this is via a cross or a pull-back we’ve seen how effective he can be when he gets into the right areas and Valery can help him do so by overlapping him.
Ingelsson is a real threat from those scenarios being of a decent stature and possessing good aerial ability. He’s also able to peel in from the left-hand side and attack those crosses diagonally which can help him generate good momentum and power on his headers.
Bannan likes to come onto the play from deep which plays to his strengths. We know he can hit them from range or he can collect the second balls on the edge of the box, with his goal against Wrexham a prime example of that.
The long throw is firmly back in fashion and Wednesday can threaten from these scenarios with Ingelsson launching the ball in. Free-kicks are another area where Bannan’s quality can come through, scoring against Pompey from a dead-ball.
The likes of Jamal Lowe and Ugbo also have previously shown their capabilities at this level. They may both be struggling to hit form currently but don’t put it past either to pop up and cause Blues issues as Ugbo did just a few seasons ago.
Key players:
- Ethan Horvath – it may be obvious but Horvath is facing a lot of shots. He’s got a questionable record and has already made a few blunders but he’ll need to be on top form at St. Andrew’s if the Owls are to get anything.
- Barry Bannan – the captain is still the most influential player in the Wednesday side, and brings that extra bit of quality even if he’s not as involved as he may like to be on the ball.
- Svante Ingelsson – a key player in and out of possession, the Blues right-back will need to be vigilant of his movements in the box. He’ll be looking to stifle Christoph Klarer’s time on the ball too.
Wednesday may look like the easiest game of the season on paper but there are dangers to be mindful of and I’m sure Davies won’t be taking them lightly.
What does play into Blues’ favour is the rotation aspect. The respective depths of these squads are incomparable really. They lost both of their first two fixtures on the weekends following a midweek fixture though their win at Pompey – one of the furthest trips and following a clash with Grimsby Town on the Tuesday prior – upset the odds.
Roberts and Neumann could be a big piece in the puzzle. The rotations down the right flank for Blues could be pivotal and Neumann’s aerial ability could be something that Blues could profit from at the back post in both boxes.
There was more purpose in the match with Swansea City, something Blues fans had been crying out for. That will be essential if Davies’ side are to crush the spirit of this Wednesday team, who are fighting for every point like their lives depend on it at the moment. I do think the quality will tell but it may not be the walkover some may expect.
My prediction: Blues 2, Sheffield Wednesday 0.
