Blues hope to bounce back from their first league defeat of the campaign.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Areas to exploit
- Threats to be wary of
- Player to watch
- Prediction
Well it’s out of the way. Blues are defeated four games into their Championship return and in some ways it feels like a time to breathe. The international break is the first point of reflection in a frantic season opening, from the curtain raiser frustrations, the euphoria at Ewood Park, the normality against Oxford United and finally the deflation at the King Power.
The game itself against Leicester City wasn’t a total disaster – though the online reaction could have convinced a neutral that the club had announced liquidation – and I largely felt Blues played well, at least in the first two-thirds. In better news, that missing invention may have been found with the addition of Patrick Roberts, who is a seriously shrewd piece of business on loan.
And the games don’t get any easier. A trip to the Potteries may have seemed favourable in seasons gone by but Mark Robins’ side find themselves in a position of strength this time around. They too were beaten in game week four, having taken maximum points from their previous three matches.
The underlying numbers caught my eye. Stoke City sit third for both goals for and goals against in the division despite creating just the ninth most xG and conceding the 16th most. Now skeptics will say this shows their early season form to be unsustainable but it also shows they pack a punch at both ends. So who have been their key players in the first phase?
Well Viktor Johansson felt like the jewel in the Stoke crown last campaign and he’s continued his strong form in goal, despite a blunder in their defeat to West Bromwich Albion. It’s nearly all change at the top end of the pitch with loan revelation Divin Mubama supported by the wizardry of Sorba Thomas.
Aaron Cresswell is the only other new addition to have started a league match for the Potters, with fellow newbies Jamie Donley, Maksym Talovierov, Robert Bozenik and the returning Ashley Phillips having to wait for their opportunities. Continuity has been key thus far with Ben Pearson the only player other than those that have started games two, three and four to be named in the league XI.
For Blues, Patrick Roberts and Marvin Ducksch could be handed their first league starts. Willum Willumsson disappointed at the King Power whilst Jay Stansfield will be ruled out. Keshi Anderson is another contender to return to the XI whilst Alex Cochrane may step back in at left-back.
Predicted line-ups:
Areas to exploit:
- Midfield coverage
- Tracking wide runners
Midfield coverage:
The balance of the Stoke midfield is an interesting one, perhaps not your conventional Championship midfield in 2025/26, with a lack of a real powerhouse in there. Now that’s not necessarily an issue. Blues’ own midfield would probably not be classed as an overly athletic blend, despite Tomoki Iwata’s summer bulk up.
However it’s probably the lack of a naturally defensively inclined figure in the centre of the park that makes it a fairly strange mix. Tatsuki Seko is a tidy option but not the steely anchor you may expect, whilst Lewis Baker is known as a goalscorer from deep and Bae Joon-ho is a kind of Swiss Army knife forward who’s operating more as a fourth attacker than a third midfielder.
This has been evident so far in the footage watching Stoke, as they’re often taking some sizeable risks without the ball. They do look to push onto their opponents, with Mubama often the spritely chasing forward who gets after centre-halves with the supporting cast perhaps not as intense in their pressure.
However they do go with a pack of five, with both Baker and Joon-Ho joining the forwards and Seko left to hold the fort. The full-backs can be of help, with Junior Tchamadeu particularly able to step in centrally on short notice but it does tend to mean that Seko can be left with two or three players to cover with numbers in short supply.
Blues can play on this by dropping the attacking midfielder or the inverting right winger a little deeper to create options either side of Seko.
It can mean a lot of time on the ball for their opponents who find retention relatively straight forward, and passing through the lines can also become a route to goal with Stoke’s press not the most effective – 16th for high recoveries and 14th for passes per defensive action.
Some of their better moments in the earlier games came when Baker started from a deeper position to support Seko, and it will largely come down to the distances between the midfielders. If Baker doesn’t aid Seko he will become overrun.
West Bromwich Albion created countless openings in midfield particularly with the wide players knocking first time balls inside to exploit the spaces left.
Blues must be more effective in these kinds of scenarios. Against Leicester there were numerous opportunities to move the ball through midfield and make the most of vacated space but the lines of communication were often blurred. Get it right at the Bet365 and Chris Davies’ team will give themselves a great chance.
Tracking wide runners:
Again linked to their weak midfield coverage, is the tendency for space to open up once the opposition work the ball down the flanks.
Teams have found inward routes to goal pretty easy to locate against Stoke, with their wingers having a free passing channel to the midfielders. When the winger receives possession they will be faced up by the full-back and maybe even the winger, depending on how advanced they are when they collect the ball.
Naturally the full-back comes to challenge the ball but the Stoke winger also looks to double up on the ball player. This isn’t unnatural against some wingers as they are likely a very dangerous and creative outlet but it does mean there is a numerical advantage for the opponents elsewhere.
Stoke’s midfielders may look to support the wide players and create an overload but teams have been able to negate their effect, by using off the ball runners to drag the midfielders back. Whether this be a midfielder or a full-back, almost always the Stoke midfielder is tasked with tracking them as the Potters wide players focus on the opposing winger.
This opens up a free passing lane infield, with Alex Mowatt receiving in a huge area of space countless times against West Brom. This may not feel that dangerous in deeper possession but it became more worrying when those same spaces were vacated in and around the box. With someone like Paik Seung-ho, who has the ability to strike from distance, Blues could really benefit from these spaces.
There’s also the potential that the hosts’ midfielder doesn’t properly track the passed off runner when the Stoke winger joins the full-back in defending the ball player. All it takes is one lapse in communication and suddenly a free runner emerges.
Whether down the right side, with the Blues right-back bombing beyond the winger, or down the left where Lewis Koumas made countless diagonal runs at the King Power, the potential to slide a ball out wide and find a spare man could bear fruit for the visitors.
Threats to be wary of:
- Finding pockets
- Last line speed
Finding pockets:
The Stoke shape can be quite fluid, and often you see them in almost a 4-2-4 formation. Joon-ho acts as that second forward alongside Mubama with Thomas and Million Manhoef splitting to act as touchline wingers.
A big part of their game plan is attacking facing the backline, rather than pinning the ball into a forward who’s operating with their back to goal. In order to do so, they drop both Mubama and Joon-ho deeper to create a separation from the backline. They often take up positions which you’d expect from attacking-midfielders.
This allows them to turn when they get the ball, with opposition defenders unable to follow them so deep. They’re always looking for these passes with both the full-backs and Bosun Lawal as a wide centre-back trying to pick out these straight balls into their feet.
Mubama has looked incredibly sharp, able to trap the ball and turn whilst Joon-ho’s ability as a technician can’t be understated- even if his Championship form has tailed off since his arrival.
These passes are key parts in deeper possession, and when Mubama is operating on the last line then the emphasis falls on Baker to make that option. It almost becomes a front five on the opposition’s defensive line with Joon-ho and Baker looking for gaps between the opposition centre-back and full-back.
Cresswell is always looking to play those curled balls into the left half-space, with a lot of Stoke’s build up looking to utilise his creative qualities. Making sure he’s under pressure quickly will no doubt be a part of the off ball strategy. West Bromwich Albion persistently looked to limit the distance between their wingers and midfielders to close central channels, instead forcing the ball down the line to a Stoke winger.
When Baker and Joon-ho do adopt these spaces it also reduces the distance between them and the winger allowing for short combinations and dragging defenders in which runners can exploit. Tchamadeu has had a few openings where he’s burst into vacated space due to these situations.
When Mubama does come deeper there’s always the possibility that a defender follows him and this can create vacated spaces. Manhoef loves to make those curved out-to-in runs into the gaps, with a real eye for space. Blues must be wary of leaving spaces, and communication between the defence and midfield will be paramount.
Last line speed:
Alongside those fired balls into the feet of Joon-ho and Mubama, Stoke do look to be direct in their play often. They sit for 11th for possession, with Robins hardly prioritising retention over invention from his players.
This tendency to play forward quickly starts from the deepest scenarios: goal kicks. Often from goal kicks the ball is rolled to Johansson from a centre-back with Seko or Baker making a vertical run towards the goalkeeper. They’re often marked and are something of a decoy with the other midfielder making an inverse movement away from goal.
This either opens up a pass to either of the centre-backs with a close opponent dragged away from goal, or it can free up a straight pass through midfield to unlock the player making the run away from the ball.
Johansson isn’t afraid to be direct with his kicking either, with Mubama an option both to receive to feet or to run in behind. Thomas is equally an explosive runner and combative physically so long balls in the Welshman’s direction shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Manhoef is no slouch himself, with all of the forward line able to attack spaces left by the opposition. Blues will be enticed onto Stoke but must be careful of leaving large spaces behind them, particularly if Christoph Klarer and Cochrane are the pair on the left side of defence.
Player to watch:
Sorba Thomas has started the season in electric form, picking up where he left off in his last Championship campaign. He‘s a high volume chance creator, and has electric pace so could cause issues.
This is a tough fixture given the form Stoke are in however the Baggies stifled their chances and limited them to very few openings of note. That will give Blues encouragement, given how creative Stoke were in the opening matches.
It’s another game where Davies needs to find a solution in the absence of Stansfield but Ducksch should be up to speed come the visit to the Bet365, which may pave the way for him to start. Koumas may be given the nod on the return to his former side with his energy.
Blues have a good record in the Potteries, picking up a result on five of their last six visits and winning their last two. I’m backing that to continue following a break of reflection and refinement.
My prediction: Stoke City 1, Birmingham City 2
