Blues looking to build on their first away victory since October.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
One point, four goals scored and 15 goals conceded. All across seven away games since Blues fought tooth and nail for a 1-0 victory at Deepdale.
Many hoped that evening may be the turning point in Chris Davies’ side’s away fortunes, but it proved a false dawn. The way that Blues closed out their FA Cup third round win at the Abbey Stadium last Saturday hardly looked like a team who have put their away woes to bed either.
Davies did make some tactical tweaks against the U’s, and those may help Blues to solve some of their longstanding issues on away soil. So heading to a Swansea City side who are gradually improving under Vitor Matos, can Blues land back to back away victories for the first time since their return to the second tier?
Swansea have used a 4-1-4-1 shape under Matos, though they’ve flexed the personnel. Winger Eom Ji-sung may force his way into the team after his goal in the cup.
There are a number of midfield options available to the Swans boss but he has preferred to deploy Ethan Galbraith at right-back as of late. Striker Zan Vipotnik (pictured above) will lead the line, hoping to add to his 10 goal tally.
For Blues, Jay Stansfield may return on the left-hand side in place of Lewis Koumas. The current thin squad means Davies’ hands are relatively tied elsewhere and Marvin Ducksch continuing behind Kyogo Furuhashi may be a formality.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession work:
Only Sheffield Wednesday’s goalkeeper has made more saves than Swansea’s in the Championship.
Opposition’s half:
Swansea may not be the biggest pressing team in the division, but they do like to harry their opponents.
They have begun to register more high recoveries as of late, and it’s clear to see in the footage that their off the ball work has a certain intent to it.
When the trigger to press occurs, the midfielders and wingers are happy to get in the faces of their markers and that’s reflected in the fact they’ve won the most ground duels in the division.
The profiles they have across the pitch are primed for this tactile approach. Gonçalo Franco, Ronald and others are all great for winning their individual battles and have a tenacity and physicality to their games.
They’ve had success lately against struggling teams like Oxford, Portsmouth and even West Bromwich Albion so executing a similar approach against Blues may look appealing given the poor away form. However with Tommy Doyle adopting deeper spaces in build up, Blues may be able to play through them more easily.
There were a number of occasions in the games I watched where the Swans struggled to recover once they lost that first duel or were played through. If Blues can crack that, they could cut the hosts open.
Own half:
Swansea have been fairly solid defensively this campaign – at least in comparison to their attacking output which has been poor.
They don’t spend tonnes of time without the ball, averaging the fourth most possession and therefore, they do generally limit the frequency of chances they concede.
When they build out they tend to keep a number of bodies in close proximity to their own goal, not committing all of their players forwards. This means if they do turn the ball over they have bodies back.
They’ve faced plenty of shots in their own box – 65.75% – yet they’ve conceded just the third least percentage of goals inside the box. That’s largely down to goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux who’s made the third most saves per match in the league and has the third best goals prevented ratio.
They’ve also struggled with aerial threats, conceding the third most headed shots so Ducksch will need to be more assertive in the area.
Blues will hope that Kyogo can put his goalscoring woes behind him after his strike against Cambridge and with Ducksch also in strong form in front of goal, Blues may have unlocked a new potency to their play.
In possession work:
Swansea have made the fourth most passes in the league.
Build up:
Swansea’s build up is where they spend a substantial period of their time in games, averaging 54.9% possession and with both of their centre-backs ranking amongst the top six players for passes in the league.
They build out with a traditional back four, with defensive midfielder Marko Stamenic dropping close to the defence to pick up the ball too. Stamenic does drop in at times and allow the full-backs to get higher and wider – where they both can benefit.
Galbraith is given a free role at times, with the right-sided central midfielder pulling into the channel and leaving space for him to drive infield where he can dictate.
To help them not get caught in a pressing trap, the opposite side full-back tucks in centrally to offer an out ball. Blues will need to cut off this option if they’re to apply pressure, though I’m sure Davies’ team will pick their moments to engage as they have done lately.
They can play longer at times with Vipotnik dropping in to receive and the likes of Ronald and Zeidane Inoussa are capable of running beyond him whilst the two number eights also like to run forwards.
Chance creation:
Swansea have been really poor when it comes to their overall chance creation. They’ve generated the worst expected goals tally in the division, and no player is over performing their xG tally more than Vipotnik who is their top scorer by some margin.
They may lack a defence penetrating threat further forwards, with more of their creative talents starting further back.
Galbraith, Josh Tymon and Josh Key have largely proved themselves as their best defence splitters this campaign, ranking as their top three most successful crossers this campaign, as well as three of the top four open play chance creators.
Their best moments come when they force their opponents back and then can commit these players to the edge of the area and utilise their qualities. They cut the ball back to deeper areas rather than crossing from the by-line.
The wide combinations are the key to any attacking threat, with the number eights pulling wide to support the full-backs and wingers.
Back post crosses from the left to right are a good avenue for them to create with Ronald and Vipotnik able to attack them, whilst Blues are less effective aerially down that side.
Lately set piece goals have been a big crutch for them, but I’m not sure whether they can continue to rely on those given they’ve created just 0.28 xG per 90 from dead balls.
Statistical quirk:
Despite possessing a number of quick threats in their attacking arsenal, Swansea have recorded the fewest fast breaks and direct attacks in the league.
Key players:
- Lawrence Vigouroux – the Chilean has proved his worth in goal, producing a number of key saves on a regular basis.
- Ethan Galbraith – their biggest creative outlet, Galbraith is crucial to their play even from right-back.
- Zan Vipotnik – their only consistent threat in front of goal, Vipotnik plays an important part both in build up and in occupying defenders.
Swansea’s upturn in form – winning five of their 10 matches under Matos – may look strong on paper, but I think context is needed. They’re still a side who are failing to create consistent chances regularly.
They have a number of threats who could hurt Blues, but I think Davies will be quietly confident his team can hurt the Swans. There were signs of a tweaked system against Cambridge which should help negate some of the flaws in the away form.
The fragility within the squad was on display as Cambridge launched a late barrage in the cup, but the win should do wonders for the confidence amongst the group – even against League Two opposition. So I’m going to believe a corner has been turned.
My prediction: Swansea City 1, Birmingham City 2.
