Hornets aiming for fourth consecutive win over Blues.
Contents:
- Introduction
- Predicted line-ups
- Out of possession play
- In possession play
- Statistical quirk
- Key players
- Prediction
Another damp squib showing on the road for Birmingham City, and perhaps even more questions than answers following Wednesday’s draw at the Hawthorns.
Why can’t Blues start strongly? Why does the defence look so much more exposed away than at home? The disparity between the home and away performances is odd. What it does mean though is that with a home game on the horizon there’s another chance to pick up maximum points.
Should Blues go on to beat Watford, it would end a substantial drought of victories in this fixture for them. Blues have won just once across the last 12 meetings between these two sides, with 10 of those games ending with Watford taking all of the points.
Watford have grown into this Championship campaign, particularly since their mandatory managerial change. Javi Gracia (pictured above) has lost just two of his eight matches since returning to Vicarage Road, with his side currently without defeat in five.
They picked up an impressive comprehensive win over Middlesbrough, respectable draws with good outfits in Ipswich Town and Bristol City, as well as running Coventry City closer than most have this campaign.
They’ll hardly be short of confidence as they make the journey to B9, so what will they shape up like?
There’s good news and bad news for the away side in the medical department. Tuesday’s draw with Preston North End marked the long-awaited return of Giorgi Chakvetadze from injury whilst their win at Derby County saw Kwadwo Baah forced off with a hamstring injury.
Gracia has flexed between shapes across his second tenure but I’d hazard a guess it’ll be either a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 on Monday. Most of the XI has been fairly settled regardless of shape.
For Chris Davies’ side, Paik Seung-ho’s return to action against Albion was a huge boost even if the South Korean took time to stamp his mark on the game. Tomoki Iwata will miss the match through suspension so a return for Bright Osayi-Samuel looks likely.
Predicted line-ups:
Out of possession:
Watford have only kept one clean sheet since Gracia was reappointed boss.
Opposition’s half
Watford look like one of the more passive out of possession sides when it comes to winning the ball in opposition territory. They’ve registered the sixth least high recoveries of any side overall but this is trending upwards over the last few games.
They’re becoming a little more aggressive in winning the ball high but still not as tenacious as other teams in the division.
Again it’s a 4-4-2 structure without the ball regardless of whether they start in that shape or a 4-2-3-1.
The front six players are largely focused on closing off lanes and spaces rather than pressing the ball. The front two deny balls into the pivot players, forcing them to drop deep to get on the ball, whilst the two midfielders do the same with the forward players.
When they do see the opportunity to pin their opponents into small zones they do take it, particularly in wide areas. The full-back jumps whilst the ball side midfielder and striker come over to support the winger in shutting off space.
Luca Kjerrumgaard ranks in the bottom seven for both tackles and possession won per 90 for players with over 960 minutes which sums up the passiveness of the front line.
Own half:
Watford’s passive approach certainly pays dividends for them, at least at Vicarage Road. By not over committing in a pressing sense, they stop the opposition’s forward players from receiving the ball so freely and safeguard against giving them tonnes of space – facing the second least fast breaks in the league.
They’ve only conceded 21 goals across their 17 games, just two more than Blues. On the road however it’s 12 conceded in eight and there’s more of a weakness about them away from home.
They’ve conceded the fifth least expected goals of any side so perhaps there’s an element of misfortune with the goals they’re conceding.
What they are excellent at is restricting opponents from getting into good areas. They’ve faced the lowest xG per shot against and they’ve done that by restricting both the number of shots faced and the amount that are inside the box.
They’ve conceded the lowest percentage of goals inside the box in the division and the third highest percentage of shots faced from outside the box. They regularly limit teams to long range efforts and unfavourable shooting positions.
They’re aerially combative too, winning the fourth highest percentage of aerial duels too so when crosses do come into the area they can deal with them well.
I’m not convinced Nathan Baxter is an excellent Championship goalkeeper, and he should be one that a rampant Blues side can get at. But when the structure in front of him is so strong, Watford may be able to stand up to the test of limiting a side who have run riot on home soil lately.
In possession work:
With an array of young attacking talent in their ranks, Watford pose many different threats going forwards.
Build up:
Watford are one of the more adaptable sides in the division when it comes to playing out. They’re able to mix up their game plan between playing short and more direct.
We have to talk about Imran Louza straight away. He’s the definition of a metronomic midfielder, leading Watford’s charts for goals, passes, final third passes, through balls, assists, chances created, possession won, progressive carries and many more.
When Watford are playing out Hector Kyprianou drops deep to be alongside the defenders and pick up possession. Often Jeremy Ngakia is the full-back that tucks in whilst Marc Bola is allowed to step forward – though that’s not always the case.
Edo Kayembe has started off the right when they play a 4-4-2 whilst he’s the attacking midfielder in the 4-2-3-1. Either way he’s tucking in to form a midfield three but what’s surprised me is how often Watford turn down the forward pass through midfield – though there is a reason for this which I’ll come onto.
So often they knock the ball between them rather than forcing the ball forwards – with the biggest percentage of play in their own third of any team in the league.
That will be a big incentive for Blues to jump on them, particularly at home.
Chance creation:
Now I’ve mentioned the fact they turn down forward passing opportunities regularly, but part of that seems tactical.
Watford have brilliant off the ball runners and a lot of the time they’re looking to get them attacking space. By keeping possession deeper they’re looking for the opposition to push up and leave space behind which they can then play into.
They’ve registered the eighth most direct attacks and more fast breaks than anyone else in the league. That’s ideal when you have wingers like Nestory Irankunda, Othmane Maamma and Kwadwo Baah.
Maamma loves to drift into central spaces and run off the back of defenders down the right hand side from his left-wing starting position, which creates an overload.
I do think Watford struggle to play through the lines when they want to though partly because of Kayembe’s shortcomings. Often his sloppy touches lose possession at crucial moments.
Kjerrumgaard is a great focal point, able to receive passes and feed the players moving beyond him. He’s also a really good finisher at this level, able to strike powerfully from all sorts of ranges which could prove a challenge for James Beadle who often parries strong shots back into the area.
Their crossing quality from full-back is a big plus, with Bola particularly whipping in plenty of enticing balls lately. When they get lots of players in close proximity is where they’re most effective, and they can then feed the ball into the channels.
Watford struggle to get into the best areas consistently with one of the fewest touches inside the box of any side and against a solid Blues defence there’s no guarantee they’ll get a plethora of good chances.
However transitionally they could cause big issues.
Statistical quirk:
Both Blues and Watford are tied with three other sides for the most red cards this season (two).
Key players:
- Marc Bola – Bola has been a real livewire down the left, holding width and threatening with his creative quality.
- Imran Louza – the most important player, perhaps to any side in the division. Louza is sensational in almost every facet and will cause issues.
- Giorgi Chakvetadze – whilst the Georgian has just returned from injury, he’s an incredible player at this level and can make all the difference.
The home record for Blues is superb whilst Watford have struggled considerably on the road. They’re facing similar issues to Davies’ team in terms of replicating their home form away but this game could be a great clash.
Styles make fights and the fact that they’re so effective in transition could pose plenty of issues for Blues, particularly in full-back areas.
I don’t think there’ll be a clean sheet for Blues in this one, with the danger the Hornets have. I do think the home side can cause their own problems though and could prove too much.
My prediction: Birmingham City 2, Watford 1.
