Birmingham City Opponent Insight: Blackburn Rovers
Blues go in search of first Ewood win since 2013.
Contents:
•Introduction
•Predicted lineups
•Areas to exploit
•Threats to be wary of
•Player to watch
•Prediction
#BCFC #Blues #KRO #brfc #SkyBetChampionship
Last Friday was bitter sweet. It was hard to come away not feeling like we earned more than we got, particularly given the nature of the equaliser. However, getting a point from a parachute team on week one is always an achievement.
Games like this one however is where the mettle of this side will show. Getting up for a big game under the lights is one thing, but going to places where top teams are expected to win – and do so – is necessary if we’re to realise our ambitions.
Rovers are a tough side to work out. They were pretty abysmal under Ismael initially but put together a late pla-off surge. The West Brom defeat didn’t provide much of a definitive answer. So a test against Blues may be a good marker.
They’ve faced a string of departures in key areas. Owen Beck and Callum Brittain were both key outlets last season whilst Tyrhys Dolan was a big loss. They missed the creativity of Todd Cantwell last weekend too and the majority of the newbies are relative unknowns in English football. So how may they line up?
Rovers made a string of changes before their cup defeat to Bradford on Tuesday, with Dion De Neve, Axel Henriksson and Sondre Tronstad the only survivors. That suggests they’ll adopt an XI similar to the one that lost at the Hawthorns on opening day.
Makhtar Gueye was arguably a better fit than Yuki Ohashi in his sub cameo on matchday one so he may lead the line, whilst uncertainty surrounding skipper Lewis Travis casts doubt over his inclusion. Todd Cantwell may return to the XI after an appearance off the bench in the cup.
For Blues I’d anticipate a relatively similar side to the one that took on Ipswich. Perhaps Tommy Doyle returns to the XI that featured for most of pre-season, but Kyogo performed so well last week it’s hard to make a case for dropping him. Predicted lineups.
Areas to exploit:
•Cutting them open
•Over aggression
Cutting them open:
Now this may seem a little similar in essence to one of the Ipswich weaknesses, but it’s something I felt Blues did really well last Friday and that was creating artificial transitions.
Essentially artificial transitions are trying to create counter attacking opportunities from your own possession. Drawing the opponents on, beating their press and having a numerical advantage as a result. This will be an area Blues can hurt teams a lot this season with the style Davies has implemented.
Blackburn will line up in a 4-2-3-1 and sometimes a 4-4-2 without the ball, again very akin to McKenna’s shape. From opposition goal kicks however, they tended to push one of the midfielders on rather than two. This was Tronstad with Travis sitting on the halfway line and protecting against a clipped ball forwards.
This creates an interesting scenario against a double pivot. However, as there’s the opportunity for one of those players to become free. Rovers will try to stop this by shadow covering one of those players with a striker’s running arc or positioning but if Blues do the first ball playing phase well then the pitch opens up.
West Brom did this well, shifting the ball to one of the CBs- preferably Neumann for Blues- and then aiming the ball centrally to exploit the space left in midfield. This can create a real counter attacking chance.
Anderson could be key to this on the left. Klarer wasn’t as comfortable on that side, being a natural right footer so opening his body up to play that straight ball may be difficult. That could mean Klarer playing a straight ball into Anderson, him receiving under pressure and then playing infield to Paik or Iwata could be a better strategy.
Either way transitionally I can see us hurting them, particularly from goal kicks.
Over-aggression
Somewhat in the same vein, Rovers are an aggressive side under Ismael. The philosophy is about closing distances, man-to-man pressure, much more than it is about defending zones. That could pay dividends if Blues aren’t sharp with their use of the ball.
That’s partly why I was glad to see rotation on Wednesday as you can’t afford tonnes of fatigue against this kind of system. I digress. So Rovers want to be tenacious and aggressive, they’ll be very hands on and that was evidenced last week, as they committed 13 fouls.
Particularly down the channels they like to be front footed, and when opponents are receiving with their back to goal that’s often a trigger. In the channel you’re sometimes left with the LB, LCB, LCM, AM, LW all dragged into close proximity. What that does mean is a quick interchange can open up space for the opponent.
Blues No.9 will become a real key focal point in this sense. If Kyogo can be used as a springboard with wide players attacking the channels and running off of their markers’ backs, Blues could carve out numerous openings. The CBs for Blackburn liked to stay close to their man so if he can time his movement well he could drag them deep.
Bright Osayi-Samuel is someone who will be perfect in this sense. His game is modelled on laying the ball off short and using his speed and power to beat his man, running into a space he can receive again. That will be a real weapon at Ewood.
Paik is another who could be key. His ability to punch the ball through the lines could really help bypass the front footed home players and get them facing their own goal quickly.
With Gray and Stansfield operating in 2 floating areas behind Kyogo last week, they could really occupy the Rovers midfield pairing. Those diagonal runs that Gray and Kyogo particularly looked to make into the right channel could be a nice path to progress the ball.
It also presents the opportunity to attack set pieces. Again I still want to see more improvement in this department from Blues. Henriksson for the visitors was very prone to a mistimed challenge, so don’t be surprised if he goes into the referee’s book.
Threats to be wary of:
•Right side chemistry
•Directness
Right side chemistry:
Rovers’ right hand channel is where I feel they can hurt Chris Davies’ team if they are to. Ryan Hedges started from the right the other day but it may be Henriksson deployed there if Cantwell is available. The role the RW has in possession is notable.
It’s not uncommon these days to see an inverted winger. Few out-and-out wide men truly do operate anymore and often the full back is tasked with providing the width. That was often the case down the Rovers’ right last weekend and there was promise.
As I mentioned they operate with a midfield pairing of Travis and Tronstad. They sit in front of the CBs to form a four-man core and often peel either side of them to receive and start to progress the ball. Often a two-man midfield can be overwhelmed with many sides going with a three, so how do they combat this? Well, Hedges (RW) is often tucked in, sitting just to the right of Tronstad.
This meant he was able to receive infield rather than being limited by the touchline. It also allowed Alebiosu to step forward and occupy the vacated space down the flank. This suits him, being a strong athletic profile- similar to De Neve on the left wing.
Now rather than simply having Alebiosu go one-on-one with the opposition full back, Rovers chose to try and free up one of them through their interlinked movement. One of them would come towards the ball player in the right channel, the other would make a run in behind and it would create a separation down that flank.
They could clip the ball long with both able to run and chase the opponent into the corner, then allowing the team to shift upfield and gain territory. Or they could play the short ball and gain more time to progress the ball forward.
Cochrane will have to be mindful of this particularly as Ohashi liked to bend his runs into the right channel too, meaning there could be a 3rd player attacking space behind him. He did well against Ogbene last week.
Blues can try and stop this en route with Anderson being tenacious in getting out to the ball player early, perhaps risking an overload from the long ball. Or they could drop a little deeper when the ball was down that side to safeguard against the lack of pace. Either way it’s a danger that has to be watched.
Directness
Rovers are a fairly direct side, averaging the second most long balls of any Championship team last week (32). They want to be quick and effective in their use of the ball, and that requires a certain speed of play in all areas- not simply down the right. (Image 5)
This starts with their goal kick build up. Rather than looking to draw the opposition on, they spread their side out. If they do look to go direct they’ve got bodies in close proximity, with the 3 supporting players able to pick up second balls. They may elect to go for Gueye rather than Ohashi due to his physicality.
If they do try and build out then they often have a midfield advantage with Hedges and the 10 forming a box midfield with Travis and Tronstad. Neumann and Klarer will need to be mindful of this as it could require one of them to step out quickly.
They also liked to switch to the ball to find those overloads. Rather than having the LB tuck in to compensate for Adebisi’s width, they tended to push both full backs forward. This meant they had advantages down both sides if they moved the ball quickly and that could be the case again here.
One thing I noticed about their wide play was that it was often something as simple as pass and move. They favoured short, sharp passing down the channels with the FB, CM, AM and WG all getting involved. Some of these players made unselfish runs to drag players away and create a path for another to drive into.
One-twos were a constant so making sure the markers are switched on is essential for Blues.
They didn’t manage to work the ball into the box as frequently as they may have liked- only delivering 5 accurate crosses- but with lots of players supporting the forward they’ll be hoping they can be more efficient in their wide play.
Key man- Sondre Tronstad
Tronstad could be hugely important particularly if Travis doesn’t play. That would mean Tavares or Buckley would partner him. But his role in not only progressing the ball but in making sure he doesn’t get caught out positionally will be huge.
This is where I want to see Blues step up. It’s all well and good performing in the big, blockbuster games at this level, but the real challengers consistently go away and win. At a place we haven’t done so in our last 10 attempts, it‘s a chance to show how much we’ve changed.
I’d expect Rovers to cause us issues down their right as I’ve mentioned, but hopefully we can defend the box well in those moments and we can get our foot on the ball and take advantage of their number of turnovers.
I do feel we’ll win, perhaps not too comfortably though. Fitness will play its part with a number of players featuring in their third game of the week, but the bench is good enough to turn to for legs. Perhaps an unlikely hero on Saturday!
My prediction: Blackburn Rovers 0-1 Birmingham City
